Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[Earthshine]

Perhaps some slight indications of improvements from mid-October onwards...

[northwestsnow]

At face value a reasonable stab looks like an unsettled period next 7 to 10 days followed by a drying out as high pressure begins to dominate.

Potential for mist fog and perhaps frost depending on where the high sets up as we heat towards mid Oct..

 

 

 

[Daniel*]

Nice output from GFS 12z and in line with other outputs, settling down considerably late next week and potentially with increasing risk of frost & fog it’s already been quite a frosty start to autumn in far north, this morning another subzero morning for some. NAO is forecast to remain negative for foreseeable so likely a cool first half to October. I think you would have been quite brave to go for a warm October. 

[Frosty.]

Mid October or thereabouts looks like the turning point towards something more settled according to the GEFS 12z mean which you could say ends on a high note! ......so, on balance we should see a general improvement by mid month although it has to be said there are still some very unsettled members in that timeframe but even so, I’m cautiously optimistic there’s an end in sight to this unsettled spell...here’s a small sample of the nicer looking charts!

 

 

Edited October 2, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Some of the charts that are currently being posted would indeed, were it January or February, be utter stonkers... But IMO, in early October, they're nowt but a swift kick in the Urals... Or a one-inch punch to the Trossachs... should you prefer!?

Edited October 2, 2020 by General Cluster

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ed, I'm sure it's because PV not developed yet, wait until Nov when PV smack over Greenie area

EC on board too! roll on next week

 

[Zak M]

12z ECM @240 ends on a very fine note...

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z ECM @240 ends on a very fine note...

Much better Zak. We will need a spell of quiet weather to dry off after all this rain! I do enjoy an autumn high....still foggy mornings, mild-ish afternoons....lovely.

[swfc]

I'm quite liking the nhp at the moment. Loads of various areas of high pressure in the mix and very little of the west to east mobility. Hopefully it continues into November ete

[Frosty.]

If anything, this evenings ECM 12z operational is fast tracking the change to more settled compared to some of the other model output..the faster the better as far as I’m concerned!!!!..and it will be hats off to Exeter who have been trumpeting  this change for some time now!!!  ..the evolution to settled seems logical too me!

Edited October 2, 2020 by Jon Snow

[stodge]

Evening all

Perhaps just a hint of the pattern easing in FI this evening but no clarity on the possible way forward. GFS 12Z OP builds HP to the north whereas ECM builds the HP through the British Isles. GEM also settles things down from the west.

[Mike Poole]

Well it certainly looks like this turbulent spell of weather will be less turbulent than predicted by the models last weekend, and by day 10 could well be behind us, models T240:

And ECM mean:

Perhaps most telling of all. Maybe the models are picking up on forecast of rising AAM, here CFS take, I’d favour a settled outlook going into mid October:

 

[mb018538]

15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well it certainly looks like this turbulent spell of weather will be less turbulent than predicted by the models last weekend, and by day 10 could well be behind us, models T240:

And ECM mean:

Perhaps most telling of all. Maybe the models are picking up on forecast of rising AAM, here CFS take, I’d favour a settled outlook going into mid October:

 

Yep - this rise keeps getting pushed back though! Was initially forecast around the 9th...then the 13th...now more like the 15th at the earliest.

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yep - this rise keeps getting pushed back though! Was initially forecast around the 9th...then the 13th...now more like the 15th at the earliest.

That’s CFS for you, it has a bias with this AAM forecast, we’ve seen it all through the summer actually, I was actually more taken by the gradual slope up over the next week or 10 days, than the take off thereafter.  Why can’t we get AAM forecasts from the other models?

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That’s CFS for you, it has a bias with this AAM forecast, we’ve seen it all through the summer actually, I was actually more taken by the gradual slope up over the next week or 10 days, than the take off thereafter.  Why can’t we get AAM forecasts from the other models?

Not sure - maybe ECM will release AAM forecasts next week with their big free data giveaway! Currently behind paywall only!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Better late than never... A quick update on last night's EC weeklies... Unsettled in the short to mid term.. Definite signs of an improvement towards mid month.. And hey presto these conditions look like prevailing till the final 3rd of the month.. Towards the end of the month there are some signs of more Low Pressure influence from the NW. Early signs for November are still for some at times settled conditions, especially further South... With periods of wetter conditions still likely, and more prominent towards the NW.. At this stage there are no early signs of anything to cold out towards mid November... With temps on the whole pretty much around average... Very early days in the countdown towards Winter proper though! 

Hope you all have a great weekend and stay safe at all times..

Edited October 2, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Mapantz]

I sent an email to ECMWF regarding their announcement on making paywalled charts freely available.

I asked them if it was mainly historical charts, or forecast charts that would become available.. I got a short answer, but enough info for now.

Quote

This will include forecast and historical charts. Next week, there will be an article on www.ecmwf.int with all details.

 

Edited October 2, 2020 by Mapantz

[Earthshine]

45 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I sent an email to ECMWF regarding their announcement on making paywalled charts freely available.

I asked them if it was mainly historical charts, or forecast charts that would become available.. I got a short answer, but enough info for now.

 

Fantastic when we get access to that content.

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening guys,long time in posting and thanks for the heads up @MATT

i do really hope that we will have a drying out after a week to ten days out from this unsettled spell but i think that it's going to be a slow process looking at the latest from cpc days 6-10/8-14 with +ve heights still parked close by the UK with -ve heights out west and over the top into Scandinavia signalling some sort of northern blocking

JFF,this from the control run from the 12z out in cuckoo land mind...

that is a close call to getting a snow maker as the Mid/north Atlantic low meets the cold air from the north

the cfs still banging some outrageous northern blocking,this for November.

That's enough JFF from me but this winter does have that feeling that it will be better this time,last winter won't take that much beating mind

have a good evening and weekend all of you and stay safe. 

 

[mb018538]

ECM op doesn’t look as good this morning - but sits at the bottom or an outlier so shouldn’t be taken at face value. Just look at the massive improvement in 500mb heights and pressure too. Better weather is coming folks, just sit tight.

[mushymanrob]

10 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Evening guys,long time in posting and thanks for the heads up @MATT

i do really hope that we will have a drying out after a week to ten days out from this unsettled spell but i think that it's going to be a slow process looking at the latest from cpc days 6-10/8-14 with +ve heights still parked close by the UK with -ve heights out west and over the top into Scandinavia signalling some sort of northern blocking

 

 

 

Erm..... these charts show negative pressure anomaly over/close to the UK not "out west" . Troughing over or close to our East of the UK. Slight ridging to our west and north.

It may turn less wet, but its still cool and unsettled. It is true though that these charts appear to be progressing towards a more high pressure influence but they arent there yet.

[Allseasons-Si]

17 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Erm..... these charts show negative pressure anomaly over/close to the UK not "out west" . Troughing over or close to our East of the UK. Slight ridging to our west and north.

It may turn less wet, but its still cool and unsettled. It is true though that these charts appear to be progressing towards a more high pressure influence but they arent there yet.

Yes,sorry Mushy,that's what i meant,please forgive me,it was a long day.

[Griff]

21 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes,sorry Mushy,that's what i meant,please forgive me,it was a long day.

Punishable by a mild wet winter with relentless westerlies... Or are we on to something a bit different this year? 

In any case, please keep posting these charts, and the deep FI (that is the JFF ones) , I for one find them interesting and inspiring at a time when I need a distraction from the everyday world. Perhaps they won't work our but it's undeniably model watching and has a valid place here

Edited October 3, 2020 by Griff

[Frosty.]

The longer term prognosis from the ECM / GEFS 0z mean is still trending towards a more settled outlook, the GEFS just takes a bit longer but it appears all roads lead towards something nicer during and beyond mid month!

[Timmytour]

Could it get a little chilly at night under those charts?  Even some frost?  Hoping to see a newspaper use the headline "0C tober....."