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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
9 hours ago, johnholmes said:

The above chart has an inpossible increase in heights, in excess of 100 DM in 24 hours. Impossible I would say!

24 hours ?  That’s a five day mean chart John ??  If you are saying that its 5 day mean output has changed by that amount since it’s previous issue then yes, that’s a big change for 5 day average ens mean output but as these charts are human blended from various nwp ens mean input, it could be that the forecaster the previous day got it a bit wrong ! 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

If you are saying that its 5 day mean output has changed by that amount since it’s previous issue then yes

That is what I posted and what I meant. Yes I am aware how they are arrived at.

No I have no idea why such a large change. Something not too different occurred about a month ago. Maybe there is a glitch in their system. Time will tell if the current chart is the correct version or not, I doubt it.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

Tuesday looking like the main day of interest from a storms / heat POV, will be changes before then as models try to firm up on the position and speed of that low pressure to the SW but currently showing widespread +16 C 850 hpa across the country with an area of +18 C 850 hpa drifting northwards, latest run had that reaching here. anim_nwv6.gif836287FD-314D-4FA9-B6EB-A08EB6D91DB4.thumb.png.dc65006fd3b48e73494ef3b79b5d5f34.png1F656386-0D3D-4C66-A535-06152E408D59.thumb.png.fdc5bc6cbbf6395795cd209fdf80ace6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
5 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

This is my last post until later today but I had to post the ECM 0z operational charts before I go..WOW!!!..what’s most amazing is how the run ends..with much power to add going forward into late September..anyway, summer returns!!☀️?️..cheers gang..:drinks:

5EDD5F4C-CD8E-4DD9-ABE5-DE752DC986A8.thumb.png.a01c530db87ee6fd8d37765d53a06906.png8F10CB58-4805-4285-B6A6-C170332826AF.thumb.png.e98a2c614bd233336f7b3895d3e53d99.png530A9D49-41A1-44B6-9A51-31092DD7AC29.thumb.png.a6a71d03782f49ac2457c953e110f62b.png98D0B4D3-96A9-418E-B469-6F9382199C4B.thumb.png.8cc402e932fc2f31ba3ccfc6937b52e9.png2738B845-76AE-4939-9F9E-8199DDD3CA32.thumb.png.d7d7e1d36b71e97bd412d900a0528ade.png13BC1125-AA1E-4883-B181-841F281BEF5B.thumb.png.f0d6625d482332556e3c2eb9252a719d.png8DB503A1-C597-47BF-BF88-97963AFFCA4B.thumb.png.7107e212c896a49eb5cea74b35be4af2.png6CD51BAC-9D27-4C00-B8C2-D43B2DA8D98B.thumb.png.e071a0ba336703580311cda82d67524d.pngD1632ED7-834C-4C2B-835D-30AC029646C1.thumb.png.7de7a4b1c254148ae7262b16e064d5de.pngF614DD11-D413-472C-824A-84BD825FFFAF.thumb.png.d1b3c85eebb56ddb0721c07a7620a41d.png01AD653E-186F-4A9D-A883-2424BEEF610E.thumb.png.885cbb6368386173e11fe18b1c4583fa.pngD444D5D7-EC70-40F4-B10B-4A68642FF83D.thumb.png.f81cae2f3be65f1326c8ffa073dbf0be.pngACBB2EDF-1D93-471B-BF4D-C895F22C56AC.thumb.png.03e2e0c65660bab1b8efa2535957ef47.pngA606B714-9535-47E7-AC88-9F273F350D91.thumb.png.044411a27c81a59fbccfca663bba8c8f.png7D3CC48E-9348-4069-A9AC-084DA1432793.thumb.png.61076860057635abc544d8acb083bfe3.pngE219E636-721B-48E3-9E0B-929AE76AEEBC.thumb.png.5cdcac381e8342852090181b4b660c51.png46B7DC3E-637A-45C3-A04C-A3C6D08840FC.thumb.png.53d32e6ef6cb86dc12ede0d3f22d1e5f.png27FE7376-C451-4307-AD0C-B1AA8A6CFF89.thumb.jpeg.e9f3166ccfe435b304736b0694b18718.jpeg

 

I must say these are the most stunning mid- late September Modelling charts i have seen in 35 years of watching and analysing the weather. Can anyone on the forums remember such summery charts in late September ?  I am astonished at this! Speechless in fact!  If this was mid June or July what temperatures would we be expecting? 

Edited by NApplewhite
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
9 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

I must say these are the most stunning mid- late September Modelling charts i have seen in 35 years of watching and analysing the weather. Can anyone on the forums remember such summery charts in late September ?  I am astonished at this! Speechless in fact!  If this was mid June or July what temperatures would we be expecting? 

Late Sept 2011 brought a record breaking plume of heat. Not unusual to see warmth in September if you get a southerly draw, continent is still very warm. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

First look at next Tuesday on ARPEGE (UK view not available yet) - looks like 32C or maybe 33C under the writing, but only the very far SE so a bit tentative whether the serious heat will be over the UK or not:

arpege-31-102-0.png?11-17

Spots of 36C over Northern France, that's quite something for mid-September!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

The tendency on the op runs is increasingly to drop a trough around Iberia/Biscay and leave it spinning there. This leaves us on the continental side of the draw. I would point out though, despite the uppers remaining good throughout next week, the continent is no longer as good at maintaining heat as it was 6 weeks ago, and maximum temperatures fall quite quickly from near 30C on Monday/Tuesday to the low 20s by the end of the week (probably upper teens away from the south). However, low 20s for late September would still be above average, and a lot of fine weather would be likely.

I'm just a tiny bit nervously looking towards Scandi too - is it possible that the cooler injection into Scandi early next week could get caught up in an easterly by the end of the week? That would crush the temperatures pretty sharpish! For the moment, heights direct the cooler plunge east, but you can see at around T144 how there's just the smallest possibility of a link-up between Iberian trough and Baltic trough, that is, if the models are presently overdoing heights over central Europe. Very, very low chance but seen it happen before, heights to the north can suck more towards the UK from the east than modelled further out. 

If only it were late December... the coldies would be wetting themselves. And so would I!:oldlaugh:

But, on a rather more serious note, I'm nae looking forward to 30C maxima -- oodles of warm sunshine, aye:oldgood:; but 30C is too hot for me, at this time of year... Crispy Sock Syndrome incoming!

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

First look at next Tuesday on ARPEGE (UK view not available yet) - looks like 32C or maybe 33C under the writing, but only the very far SE so a bit tentative whether the serious heat will be over the UK or not:

arpege-31-102-0.png?11-17

Spots of 36C over Northern France, that's quite something for mid-September!!

That's 8pm too (7pm for UK?), So a good 2 or 3 hours after peak maximums.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs on the other hand not good!!think its playing catch up to be fair!!!

Wed still good!

ukmaxtemp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Here's the UKV 03Z for Monday. 15Z peak temps.

viewimage.thumb.png.06e0d16c1b8396f4ddf38cc5931f7498.png

This is Tuesday, showing peak temps circa midday - shows the uncertainty of East/West movement.

1816778580_viewimage(1).thumb.png.7f934dbf78dbbc54d6cfe448bcf5b056.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

The difference between the ECM and GFS @144 is laughable!

2130597360_ECM1-144(1).thumb.gif.764bf74798326d27dad1dac79a410ed2.gif   gfs-0-144.thumb.png.616e26883365c22d215a0fd9bdb94564.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Actually slightly disappointed with the ECM in terms of heat- looks like it wants to clear the continental air after Tuesday.

No complaints about the high pressure domination but it would certainly be nice to keep the warm air for a bit longer. We may not see it again for some time.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

OK I've never done a September heatwave projection based on ECM raw values, so don't know how this will go, but this is what my magic "raw max plus two" would mean from the 12Z run:

Sunday 26C

Monday 30C

Tuesday 31C

Wednesday 25C

Rest of the week: low 20s as the easterly bites!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

ECM raw values look too cool to me an isolated 32-33C would be possible in SE judging by this. Exceptional conditions for mid September. 

B54F5241-6500-4A1B-9EC9-812AD6E7A566.thumb.png.5c4f2a90be55c52c4b5743dbe5cb1c7c.png4CC57EE0-A6E8-4D80-B3C6-6A02B7ABA086.thumb.png.d3e8be234161cae10e81dccabcd584e1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Late Sept 2011 brought a record breaking plume of heat. Not unusual to see warmth in September if you get a southerly draw, continent is still very warm. 

It certainly is. Here in France we have had 5 days of 30C plus with expected peak of 36C on Monday so plenty of heat here to export !

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