Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[mb018538]

ECM wasn't much of an outlier today either. 850 mean is up at 15c next week, and with a souhterly flow it'll be much warmer than today or tomorrow stuck in the low to maybe mid twenties. High 20s or 30c could be on the cards.

[NApplewhite]

Remarkable ECMWF for Mid-September! Astonishing. 

[mb018538]

30c in the SE next Monday and Tuesday on the 6z GFS run

Edited September 8, 2020 by mb018538

[NApplewhite]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

30c in the SE next Monday and Tuesday on the 6z GFS run

I think i need an explanation from Tamara as to why we are seeing the hot spell next week! 

[mb018538]

49 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

I think i need an explanation from Tamara as to why we are seeing the hot spell next week! 

Just a shuffling of the global deck of cards really.

Note the W-E movement of convective areas through September. This moves the stagnant pacific -ve AAM pattern along, and promotes a recovery in momentum. This pushes the ridge and trough patterns along so that more ridging ends up in NW Europe, and troughing tends to end up out in the Atlantic & in eastern Europe:

[wellington boot]

51 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

I think i need an explanation from Tamara as to why we are seeing the hot spell next week! 

Is this serious...? (Realise it may not be)

Tamara has nailed this whole period previously across several posts. Anticipated the models' difficulties, and accurately outlined the direction the weather was likely to take here and more widely. Personally I am very impressed indeed.

[Zak M]

   

00z GEM could also be a 30c producer.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean turns into a PEACH..not literally of course, that would be too insane!!!  ...what an incredible mid September with a return to summer, an increasing risk of thunderstorms and then high pressure taking over again...WOW..just WOW if this proves to be right..and there’s plenty of support from other output so far today!!!...let the good times roll!

Edited September 8, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Timmytour]

I'm heading for a few days in the Lake District in two weeks time....just hope that holds up Frosty!   Some nice warm sunshine will be just the ticket when I'm up there....then I can come back and start trying to mind-control the cold weather coming in for the next few months!!

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Just a shuffling of the global deck of cards really.

Note the W-E movement of convective areas through September. This moves the stagnant pacific -ve AAM pattern along, and promotes a recovery in momentum. This pushes the ridge and trough patterns along so that more ridging ends up in NW Europe, and troughing tends to end up out in the Atlantic & in eastern Europe:

Worth saying that the Euro does not actually get positive in its AAM forecast (goes to about -0.5). This current amplification will be driven by relative AAM increasing markedly rather than the nominal value and is therefore probably not sustainable.

[Zak M]

Excellent 12z UKMO @144!

   

It will be interesting to see whether this model will go with the cut-off low scenario like a few models are suggesting...

Edited September 8, 2020 by Zak M

[NApplewhite]

5 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

The GEFS 6z mean turns into a PEACH..not literally of course, that would be too insane!!!  ...what an incredible mid September with a return to summer, an increasing risk of thunderstorms and then high pressure taking over again...WOW..just WOW if this proves to be right..and there’s plenty of support from other output so far today!!!...let the good times roll!

Slight downgrade of next weeks heatwave turning into a 2-3 day warm/hot spell mostly in London and the SE. Much colder the following weekend (Sept 18th -20th)

[Allseasons-Si]

I am surprised that no one has mentioned the 12z GEM with a double whammy of heat through it's run with the +20 uppers not far off the SW on the first push

the GEFS ens are in good agreement bar a straddler for end of next weekend and the start of next week.

 

[Zak M]

12z ECM is rolling out and this is how it's looking @144:

   

Edited September 8, 2020 by Zak M

[Allseasons-Si]

Ecm not too shabby either at 144...

@Zak M,posted the same time lol.

Edited September 8, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Zak M]

The 16c isotherm almost reaches Scotland on the ECM @168 

[Frosty.]

Gobsmacking stuff from the ECM 12z operational..even hotter than the 0z?!!!

Holy Cow..yes it’s an upgrade!

Edited September 8, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Scorcher]

35 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Slight downgrade of next weeks heatwave turning into a 2-3 day warm/hot spell mostly in London and the SE. Much colder the following weekend (Sept 18th -20th)

The ECM is 100% an upgrade on this morning's run. The very warm air remains in place until the end of the run.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The ECM is 100% an upgrade on this morning's run. The very warm air remains in place until the end of the run.

I usually switch off model watching in September as it’s usually a quiet month however my annual golf weekend is in Nottingham this year from the 18th-20th so expect blazing sunshine and record warmth until about 6pm on the 17th and then a Denver-esq crash in conditions through the 18th...

[Man With Beard]

The ECM has completely aced it tonight. Similar to August. It gets the very hottest weather in, then traps it over the south via high pressure to the north. Raw maxes between 25C and 30C from Monday to Thursday, not sure how that correlates to actuals in September but I wonder if there's an outside chance of 90F for the fourth successive month? Unlikely but a slight possibility!

[Norrance]

Hi, there are a few posts today containing one liners, local reports etc. Remember there are other threads for posts like that and try to keep this one directly related to the models.

Thanks.

[NApplewhite]

Why arent the ECM models being reflected in the weather apps ? they arent reflecting the latest model outputs

 

[Mark wheeler]

Now I know it’s not as good as the ECM tonight but I thought it was about time the Mighty Navgem got a showing this evening . Not bad and those uppers looking inline with other models . 

Edited September 8, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Mike Poole]

Yes, not had time to comment earlier, but ECM looks very very good, others not bad either, certainly a return of summer (and don’t we need it with the current Covid-19 situation, which is totally depressing), and the other models look good, and would like to see the next chart on the UKMO too.  As often the case!  

[sheikhy]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, not had time to comment earlier, but ECM looks very very good, others not bad either, certainly a return of summer (and don’t we need it with the current Covid-19 situation, which is totally depressing), and the other models look good, and would like to see the next chart on the UKMO too.  As often the case!  

Is the ecm mean looking any good?