South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/09/2020 Onward

[Mapantz]

One of the important parts of Met Office warnings that is often overlooked is the warning matrix. It's on the lowest point of the scale.

[iceman1991]

9 minutes ago, AWD said:

I was referring to tomorrows possibility which has now all but vanished.  I haven't looked at Thursday yet.

To be fair to the Met Office, they have a yellow warning out to highlight the uncertainty prior to the 12z data became available.  When looking into the details of the warning below;

they repeatedly say "small chance" & uncertainty.  You never know, these things are hard to predict, the latest data suggests and favours a more southerly track however, keeping the majority of the region dry.

 Thank you AWD Ok know worries shame that. iv noticed they ramped up there short and  longer range update today for cold and snow so hopefully should be some more opportunity round the corner

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

 Thank you AWD Ok know worries shame that. iv noticed they ramped up there short and  longer range update today for cold and snow so hopefully should be some more opportunity round the corner

No problem mate.  Yes, colder than average for the foreseeable does look the form horse going forward, but whether that's cold enough for widespread snowfall or not remains uncertain.  All looks a bit messy and "meh" for our region currently.  Here's hoping for improvements. 

[Dorsetbred]

So, a mere 0.4mm of rain that was it, has that really kept everybody awake today? The temperature has cooled slightly, now @3.6°C with DP 2.5°C...

 

[AWD]

For balance, there are still a couple of high res models that bring PPN into parts of our region tomorrow evening, such as the 12z Harmonie model;

[SteveB]

Temp still rising, now at 4.2c

It's dark, surely it should be dropping?

[Nights King]

I must be honest I am slightly confused as to what is going to happen Wednesday? Bbc forecast shows nothing at all in south bar the fleeting shower.. 

[SteveB]

I confused full stop. Not digging this so called cold spell one bit.

If any precipitation makes it this far North tomorrow,  I have little faith in it being snow.

[AWD]

6 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I must be honest I am slightly confused as to what is going to happen Wednesday? Bbc forecast shows nothing at all in south bar the fleeting shower.. 

That's the favourable outcome IMO.

[MattTarrant]

1 hour ago, AWD said:

For balance, there are still a couple of high res models that bring PPN into parts of our region tomorrow evening, such as the 12z Harmonie model;

The trend has been south/weaker but still scope for an evolution like this! Harmonie is an an adaption/upgrade on the Arome model so one would think it verifies decently. Though obviously things look far less promising than this time yesterday! 

 

Find attached some information about the Harmonie model;

.  http://www.hirlam.org/index.php/hirlam-programme-53/general-model-description/mesoscale-harmonie

. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/217350454.pdf

[Dorsetbred]

Hmm, I sometimes wonder if the model folks read the MOD thread here, as you can have anything from warm rain to cold and snow, depending upon who's comment you read..be good to get over this non event and get into the New year...

Currently 2.7°C and a DP1,3°C...and to all a goodnight..

Edited December 29, 2020 by Dorsetbred

[Richard Fisher]

BBC local and National forecasts at 6:30pm still showing a northerly track with that low tomorrow for the West Country but did say track still uncertain. Nothing to suggest it’s completely going to miss. 

[Mapantz]

15Z looks good for here.. 

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

ICON 15z also an improvement on the 12z, a touch further north with more intensity so a greater risk of snow.

[MidnightSnow]

27 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

BBC local and National forecasts at 6:30pm still showing a northerly track with that low tomorrow for the West Country but did say track still uncertain. Nothing to suggest it’s completely going to miss. 

Yeah just saw this forecast. The graphic did look nearly identical to the 15z... but he did say there was uncertainty as you say.

Also mentions the chance of snow showers pushing down from the North on NYE as shown in this graphic:

 

Probably wont come to much but should be a tad less marginal if it does make it down here.

[DanDorsetUK]

Really shocked how warm it is out. 3oC here in Canford Cliffs. I'm sure it was meant to be colder than this

[DanDorsetUK]

2 hours ago, SteveB said:

Temp still rising, now at 4.2c

It's dark, surely it should be dropping?

Yes very odd this evening. Warm here near the coast too.

[camturbo]

Its iced up here on the car dont know what the temp is. Seems some confusion and uncertainty about tomorrows antics. If the pros dont know then who knows. There could be some surprises or large disappointment. Maybe the latter. However radar watching and possible lamp post watching will be in order depending on timing 

[Singularity]

Looks to me that for any notable snowfall in the far south tomorrow, there will need to be a stronger inflow of cold air to the northern flank of the low than is now being modelled. An adjustment north of the low probably won't do it - the dew points rise too much with that, so it takes sustained heavy precipitation to produce sleet, let alone snow.

Another possibility is that it turns out we don't need as much inflow to begin with. Interactions with the surrounding environment are a weak point for forecast models generally, so who knows. I'm not getting my hopes up though - these chilly low situations have a habit of falling flat in Dec and even Jan.

For most of us in the region, the chase for the first pure snow is still on - and how long we wait really depends on how much cold air can be brought in as the high begins to retrograde to our northwest next week. Models currently manage -6 to -7*C 850s at best, which isn't usually enough in early Jan to bring convective snow showers as far west as the region.

After that, we wonder about how the negative NAO will shape up - and hope it features some manner of ridge to our west, not trough!

[warren]

Complete novice here but is the precip now showing on the radar to the west of Ireland the one that is heading down south?

[jethro]

Evening all, turned cold, frosty and VERY icy here. Just been sitting outside for a fag, admiring the ice ferns on the cars when a pick-up truck went past at quite a pace, he lost it on the sheet ice, wiped out the neighbours wall across the road, spun and wiped the one opposite too. Thankfully he's unscathed, can't say the same for his truck! The roads are lethal out there so if you're driving anywhere ungritted tonight, be careful.

[khodds]

17 minutes ago, jethro said:

Evening all, turned cold, frosty and VERY icy here. Just been sitting outside for a fag, admiring the ice ferns on the cars when a pick-up truck went past at quite a pace, he lost it on the sheet ice, wiped out the neighbours wall across the road, spun and wiped the one opposite too. Thankfully he's unscathed, can't say the same for his truck! The roads are lethal out there so if you're driving anywhere ungritted tonight, be careful.

Woah! I’m stood outside having a ciggy now and all I know is it’s bloody cold!! Hope the driver is not too shaken up

[Mapantz]

Not particularly cold here. Temps creeping up and it's very damp. 2.2°C.

[jethro]

5 minutes ago, khodds said:

Woah! I’m stood outside having a ciggy now and all I know is it’s bloody cold!! Hope the driver is not too shaken up

Thankfully he's fine, didn't even seem too phased by it, maybe it's a hobby of his? He lives at the other end of the village so at least getting home isn't a problem, the truck is beyond being driven but he refused all offers of a lift and was determined to walk.

[CheesepuffScott]

Max 3.8°C today, currently 0.2°C