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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/09/2020 Onward


Mapantz

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Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

Sunny. 5.2c Humidity 83% Rh. Need the white stuff.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

To add to the @MidnightSnow post above, the high res WRF - NMM model gives a brief period of heavier snow over the Cotswolds and Wiltshire early tomorrow morning;

nmm_uk1-42-24-0.thumb.png.a4a042fe346a64660425e33d9c7cc92a.png

I wouldn't get your sledges out, wherever you live in the region, but some lucky ones are well within the scope of seeing some falling snow early tomorrow morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
6 minutes ago, AWD said:

To add to the @MidnightSnow post above, the high res WRF - NMM model gives a brief period of heavier snow over the Cotswolds and Wiltshire early tomorrow morning;

nmm_uk1-42-24-0.thumb.png.a4a042fe346a64660425e33d9c7cc92a.png

I wouldn't get your sledges out, wherever you live in the region, but some lucky ones are well within the scope of seeing some falling snow early tomorrow morning.

I've got a feeling we'll see more snow than expected. Certainly not enough for sledging as you say though.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
5 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I've got a feeling we'll see more snow than expected. Certainly not enough for sledging as you say though.

Brecon Beacons, Forest of Dean and Cotswolds might get a small dusting.  

Probably more of a wintry mix lower down but we will see, one of those situations where a tiny change in detail up above can have big changes with what falls at the surface.

Further on, should be some nice, crisp, frosty mornings as the week progresses.  Actually looking forward to going out early and walking the dog for a change.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Afternoon all, just popping by to say 'it's sleeting here'. Moderate with heavier bursts every now and then, hoping this bodes well for whatever falls after dark when the temps have dropped a bit.

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
49 minutes ago, AWD said:

To add to the @MidnightSnow post above, the high res WRF - NMM model gives a brief period of heavier snow over the Cotswolds and Wiltshire early tomorrow morning;

nmm_uk1-42-24-0.thumb.png.a4a042fe346a64660425e33d9c7cc92a.png

I wouldn't get your sledges out, wherever you live in the region, but some lucky ones are well within the scope of seeing some falling snow early tomorrow morning.

I’m hoping for a 1st Feb 2019 again where the low  just sat over us all day and just kept snowing!!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Just now, fromey said:

I’m hoping for a 1st Feb 2019 again where the low  just sat over us all day and just kept snowing!!

You know when you sprinkle a bit of icing sugar on top of a freshly baked victoria sponge......  some lucky places might look like that.

Set the bar low & realistic and you won't be disappointed. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

 

3 minutes ago, mattyj said:

Hi can someone please explain this to me as I'm in ferndown Dorset no warning for snow tomorrow but west moors less than a mile away has the warning for snow Nd ice is the yellow line really that fine? Thanks

I don't know the answer as I think it will end up being a nowcast. Hopefully, we all get some snow though

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

Temperature dropped by almost a degree under a small shower then and it's not even dark yet! Maybe we could be getting some snow this evening in the showers? ❄️

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thundersnow
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset
2 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Temperature dropped by almost a degree under a small shower then and it's not even dark yet! Maybe we could be getting some snow this evening in the showers? ❄️

 

No showers here and also dropped 1° to 5° in the last hour. Dp still 5° though

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

And so the pressure keeps falling, lower than yesterday we keep dropping...currently 974.5mb and dropping almost 1mb/hr.. As to the talk of the white stuff, well...... currently unconvinced for us Channel folk...current temperature is 7.7°C  and the DP is 2.6°C, no current reason to think nowt but rain right now.. 

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Some light sleet/snow possible over the Mendips, Salisbury Plain & Cotswolds early tomorrow morning;

nmm_uk1-42-18-0.thumb.png.fda58e3ee3513ea60133e92c00735877.png

nmm_uk1-42-19-0.thumb.png.9c4b0eb6ac2be5370c864ceb225e8be9.png

I'd keep the sledge in the garage for now though, doubt anywhere in our region will experience anything more than an "icing sugar" dusting.

Looks like there might be a couple of these types of weak occlusions this week, so for those that like a flurry of two, you might be in luck.

For those that wants significant snow, check back in during January.

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
2 hours ago, jethro said:

Afternoon all, just popping by to say 'it's sleeting here'. Moderate with heavier bursts every now and then, hoping this bodes well for whatever falls after dark when the temps have dropped a bit.

Hello Jethro, blimey it's been awhile since you been in the thread. Hope all is well.

yes had some sleet here earlier albeit very briefly. With some really nice cloud formations around today with the odd rainbow And rays. And a nice moon halo night before last.

 

can feel the excitement building for snow chances for our region hopefully tonight will be the start the week looks like little features could pop up anywhere give us a price falls as it often does in our region.

 

good luck everybody.

 

 

CAC4F6E2-0A67-47F0-B7E9-A849DDF1A34B.jpeg

3A65B58B-037C-4B15-841A-5DFABAD452F4.jpeg

A54FCD0E-0338-4547-B067-E96BBC9322A3.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
3 hours ago, fromey said:

I’m hoping for a 1st Feb 2019 again where the low  just sat over us all day and just kept snowing!!

We managed 30cm that day and there was more than that at Maiden Bradley

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Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
2 hours ago, mattyj said:

Hi can someone please explain this to me as I'm in ferndown Dorset no warning for snow tomorrow but west moors less than a mile away has the warning for snow Nd ice is the yellow line really that fine? Thanks

Wind will be from the SW initially which down near the coast will mean rain for you - it will gradually veer to a NW later which may help you, but by then it will be slightly warmer anyway so I think you will struggle to see much other than a wintry mix.

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Posted
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thundersnow
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset

3° here now with 3°dp under clear skies. Need it to be just a couple more lower ??????

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
4 minutes ago, Ashme said:

3° here now with 3°dp under clear skies. Need it to be just a couple more lower ??????

Winds are becoming quite slack now, so some evaporative cooling will take place under the heavier showers along with surface temperature inversion slowly developing this should fingers crossed bring a few flakes to us in the SW!

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters/Hot summers
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport

Think us on the South Coast will just have rain, although excitement is building for early January.  I am convinced we will have some snow by winters end!

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

A few flakes beginning to appear in this shower towards Keynsham.

EDIT 18:23: It is trying so hard to snow here, heavy sleet atm.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
4 hours ago, fromey said:

I’m hoping for a 1st Feb 2019 again where the low  just sat over us all day and just kept snowing!!

Hi Fromey 

that was incredible wasn't it . 30cm in the end from that . 

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol

 

4 hours ago, fromey said:

I’m hoping for a 1st Feb 2019 again where the low  just sat over us all day and just kept snowing!!


Yeah I remember measuring 18cm right before the heaviest spell of snow we had all day. It stalled over us and then just kept intensifying... truly incredible. As a one off day for snow, that was probably the best I can remember in my lifetime (Only 30 years old though!) - December 2010 was king for cold and longevity but unless I have a poor memory, I don't recall any days in particular that matched Feb 1st 2019 for snow totals.

Enjoyable model thread viewing tonight too. I don't pretend to understand most of it, but it seems all the ingredients are there for something memorable around the corner. It's been nearly 2 years and I need my fix. 

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