Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards


Blessed Weather
 Share

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl

    I foolishly ventured into the mod thread and now I am totally confused.....I think over the next week or was it two weeks it will snow but may be rain and the cold will still be with us but it may be mild,  I think between them on that thread they have all eventualities covered so somebody must be correct !!!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Looking like the New Year will bring a Southernly Jet with Northern Airflow this will Most Likely bring Showery Snow which has also brought down the Easternly Airflow Which Could also bring Sea Formed Snow but is unlikely to be anything More Than Sleet however with this Zonal Jet creating A Boundary Line that Col Air Is More Likely To Stay With Us For Quite some time. 

    gfsnh-0-42.thumb.png.cf5bef57148a881661414965502a5294.pnggfsnh-0-90.thumb.png.401533053c2aa969785838649b188cab.pnggfsnh-0-126.thumb.png.408732b6382ce1ce8869525fffd3845a.png

    Notica That Low Pressure Area Towards Newfoundland has developed just Below That Canadian Low which has been cut off from That Canadian Low As A New Seperate Low Which has caused an Easternly Shift and A Weakening Of the high. 

    Later on you can see that the Low has caused the High to sink East and Towards Europe More Allowing That Arctic Low to delve Westwards with the Former High there having been pushed South and Allowing The Strengthening Of That Low later on. 

    gfsnh-0-258.thumb.png.284fc9f2c0aa452645ec1c855ae01108.pnggfsnh-0-282.thumb.png.50ed6e0431c4619c61e79f59f06321a4.png

    These are not definite they are If But and Maybe's but offer A Guideline to What Type Of System We May be seeing. 

    You can see the Precipitation becoming more Southernly which will mean that We Could Have A Higher Chance Of Snow But Really Do You Think That's Going to happen. 

    gfseuw-2-108.png

    gfseuw-2-114.png

    gfseuw-2-150.png

    gfseuw-2-162.png

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    So a lot of talk of why are the BBC forecasting a Rain/Sleet Streamer for next week - Have taken a look at 5 of the Models that go to T120 for todays update and will put a percentage in here of what it is currently showing for Monday 4th Jan

    Arpege currently showing Rain

    Icon currently showing Rain

    Ukmo currently showing Rain

    ECMWF currently showing Rain/Showers

    GFS currently showing Rain or Wintry Showers

    So at the moment the percentage chances of Snow on Monday are at 0% out of 100 so there is really only one way we can go on tomorrows Update. I will add in the Precip Models as we get closer that only go out to a few days ahead and average out the chances to get the percentage but currently not looking great

    Mondays Snow Risk Currently at - 0%

    Edited by Paul Sherman
    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    So a lot of talk of why are the BBC forecasting a Rain/Sleet Streamer for next week - Have taken a look at 5 of the Models that go to T120 for todays update and will put a percentage in here of what it is currently showing for Monday 4th Jan

    Arpege currently showing Rain

    Icon currently showing Rain

    ECMWF currently showing Rain/Showers

    GFS currently showing Rain or Wintry Showers

    So at the moment the percentage chances of Snow on Monday are at 0% out of 100 so there is really only one way we can go on tomorrows Update. I will add in the Precip Models as we get closer that only go out to a few days ahead and average out the chances to get the percentage but currently not looking great

    Mondays Snow Risk Currently at - 0%

    The Tuesday looks a little more promising though in terms of both temperature and precipitation.

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn
    33 minutes ago, Rob Deacon said:

    defo won't be snow from this even if it had gone North a tad, as my temp has just gone up 2c to 4.1c in last 30 minutes as the edge of it gets closer.

    Haywards Heath, West Sussex

    Agree. Temp here 2c 

    Sleet at best 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    1 minute ago, Trom said:

    The Tuesday looks a little more promising though in terms of both temperature and precipitation.

    Yh will include Tuesday on tomorrows Update 

    • Thanks 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Looking at the Models we've got an Early January Zonal Forecast for about a Day Probably unlikely to see much laying oh well 

    Snow Chance is a maximum of 15%

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    25 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    So a lot of talk of why are the BBC forecasting a Rain/Sleet Streamer for next week - Have taken a look at 5 of the Models that go to T120 for todays update and will put a percentage in here of what it is currently showing for Monday 4th Jan

    Arpege currently showing Rain

    Icon currently showing Rain

    Ukmo currently showing Rain

    ECMWF currently showing Rain/Showers

    GFS currently showing Rain or Wintry Showers

    So at the moment the percentage chances of Snow on Monday are at 0% out of 100 so there is really only one way we can go on tomorrows Update. I will add in the Precip Models as we get closer that only go out to a few days ahead and average out the chances to get the percentage but currently not looking great

    Mondays Snow Risk Currently at - 0%

    That high, Paul?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Forgot to do my December Prediction so here it is

    No Snow except on the 6th, I think I did quite well🥳

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

    That high, Paul?

    As it currently Stands Ed..........well yes cant find a single model showing the white stuff for Monday......yet 

    Lets see if the ECM can start a trend on its 12z run

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

    As it currently Stands Ed..........well yes cant find a single model showing the white stuff for Monday......yet 

    Lets see if the ECM can start a trend on its 12z run

    In a normal winter it is normally -100%. So I’ll definitely take 0% lol

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea

    The disagreement, over hype and negativity on the MODEL thread is enough to give anyone a headache🤕... I’m beginning to think there’s only a select few who actually know what they’re talking about. (Not saying I do!) 

     

    ECM rolling soon, hoping it’s going to be a snowy stonker.

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Lol. I did say that if you go down to the end of the pier in Brighton and stuck your hand out......

    62EB4499-1FBF-41B2-BBCC-E3512DE69205.thumb.jpeg.e9b8e0f07f0421217bdba4f531b36c7a.jpeg

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Lol. I did say that if you go down to the end of the pier in Brighton and stuck your hand out......

    62EB4499-1FBF-41B2-BBCC-E3512DE69205.thumb.jpeg.e9b8e0f07f0421217bdba4f531b36c7a.jpeg

    You'll get some Rain mixed in. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    1 minute ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

    You'll get some Rain mixed in. 

    I said that too lol

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & Snowy, Hot & Sunny & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex.
    15 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Lol. I did say that if you go down to the end of the pier in Brighton and stuck your hand out......

    62EB4499-1FBF-41B2-BBCC-E3512DE69205.thumb.jpeg.e9b8e0f07f0421217bdba4f531b36c7a.jpeg

    At 17.55 that shows precip over Littlehampton... hmmm not that I saw. On to the next chase!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton

    Time for a break from model watching, any cold or snow chance seems to be downgraded or too marginal

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Surrey
  • Location: Reigate Surrey

    The overall picture does not look good to me . Failed with the snow today and the immediate future looking decidedly average for us in the South East . Uppers far too mild for am easterly unless you enjoy cold rain. Maybe mid January we might get some colder air . Until then its no snow I feel. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    5 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

    Incredibly a Stratosphere Split what does this mean for us down on the ground though? 

    gfsnh-10-162.png

    This may be where your wonderful enthusiasm is ahead of your knowledge, sheldon. Can you show me where you think the split is on that temperature chart ( it exhibits the temp profile of a displacement too)?

    Edited by chionomaniac
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Upper Belvedere, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sunny days!
  • Location: Upper Belvedere, Kent.

    Even though we weren't lucky enough to get some snow, been a great distraction from all the other stuff going on. Silver linings eh....... 😀

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    This may be where your wonderful enthusiasm is ahead of your knowledge, sheldon. Can you show me where you think the split is on that temperature chart ( it exhibits the temp profile of a displacement too)?

    I'm only saying there's a split in the Northern half and wether this could affect High's Pushing Low's towards our South and wether this is what Sends Low's in Winter Time Or Around Then

    Apparantly the NOAA have some help with Reading Charts but thier website is so hard to move around. 

    Edited by Sheldon Cooper
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...