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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    54 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Temps tumbling away now 4.3c max, now 3.1c

    I've gone from 6c to 4.6c in a hour!

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    Morning all, I hope you are all well, and your Families are Virus free. Well it's great to be alive on the occasion of my 65th Birthday. Tbh, it feels pretty scary.  It is also vir

    A very good frost here in London Docklands down to -2C it is still -0.4C now this is colder than anything last winter. Winter is here 🙂   

    Still some time for corrections northwards. Since when was ICON the most reliable model? Let’s see what all the others have to say especially ECM. ICON is looking very nice re an easterly setting up a

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    Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn
    4 minutes ago, SussexSaint said:

    Fair enough buddy,I want snow as much as everybody else but ( personally) I don’t trust the BBC apps,but I sure hope they are right 👍

    PPN way off to France already 

    would have fallen as rain/sleet anyway 

    F9C85423-47AA-4C85-B3B3-F5A9654DFFDD.png

    Edited by Polaris
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    54 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Temps tumbling away now 4.3c max, now 3.1c

    Not bad drop for under 1 hour

    2B59C523-C596-4FE9-9467-EB3D431531F3.thumb.jpeg.fe281f60207c6e4bf4eb2480da173aaf.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
    33 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    At the end of the week as most of the Better performing Mesoscale Models come into range I will do a daily check on what Models are showing for the Upcoming Easterly to see what they are thinking - from the current ones we have that go to T120 atm its only GooFuS that is showing anything of note atm and thats maybe why the BBC are not jumping through hoops about next week having any potential. 

    When we get to T72 on Friday afternoon I will put some charts in here from the Various Models and do a daily summary to see what we are looking at

    Cheers Paul.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crawley
  • Location: Crawley
    6 minutes ago, SussexSaint said:

    Fair enough buddy,I want snow as much as everybody else but ( personally) I don’t trust the BBC apps,but I sure hope they are right 👍

    It wasn't the app and yeah I do know the chances of materialising are very low but just needed some excitement these days haha. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    5 minutes ago, Polaris said:

    PPN way off to France already 

    would have fallen as rain/sleet anyway 

    F9C85423-47AA-4C85-B3B3-F5A9654DFFDD.png

    Nope it looked to coincide late in the day with nocturnal cooling and dews are OK most of us would have had a good event if it was 50 miles further north.

    E8586FA8-E746-46B2-A7F8-4CFDDD99C667.thumb.png.42df832e35b83c613becb5d061b2af16.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
    34 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    On the coast maybe and within 15 miles of the coast.. 

    I've noticed of my weather station (got it for Christmas..) that from around 6-8pm onwards it's been conductive for snow even in the setup we are in now. This doesn't even factor in height or evaporative cooling.. I'm 60ft above sea level here in the Thames Valley.. 

    Remember it takes special conditions to get snow even in mainland UK. It takes something exceptional to get laying snow on the coast (usually) simply because the rule of thumb is "in summer the sea keeps the coast cool, in winter it keeps it warm" 

    Trying to forecast snow events and temperatures beyond 48hrs is proving difficult at the moment.. Let alone a week! 

    Indeed - but we know what the basic bare minimum parameters are. I guess my point was if that chart actually materialised as is now, it’ll be borderline. The concurrent dew points are encouraging - just. We’re (royal we) are probably looking for something here that delivers region-wide rather than the usual caveats (elevation, etc) and early next week, as currently modelled across the suites, doesn’t give me huge confidence. But as you say, it’ll probably come down to micro-detail at the time. The biggest thing we need for once is a bit of luck! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea

    I’m confused. Steve and Choino seem to think there’s a POSSIBILITY of a north shift regarding today’s system, some of you say there’s no way, some of you say it would be rain and some say it would be snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

    I’m confused. Steve and Choino seem to think there’s a POSSIBILITY of a north shift regarding today’s system, some of you say there’s no way, some of you say it would be rain and some say it would be snow.

    It won't rain/sleet/snow in our area tonight from that system. Need to forget about it.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

    I’m confused. Steve and Choino seem to think there’s a POSSIBILITY of a north shift regarding today’s system, some of you say there’s no way, some of you say it would be rain and some say it would be snow.

    It is a little north and the low closed before the UK v had it close, but I'm not yet sure there's much of a difference. I'm waiting to see what happens.

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    Posted
  • Location: Headcorn
  • Location: Headcorn
    1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

    It is a little north and the low closed before the UK v had it close, but I'm not yet sure there's much of a difference. I'm waiting to see what happens.

    If it shifts north and we see snow in the SE I will personally come to your house and give you £100 I’m that confident of it not happening 

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    2 minutes ago, Spraggyy said:

    If it shifts north and we see snow in the SE I will personally come to your house and give you £100 I’m that confident of it not happening 

    Can I get in on that deal 

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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
    42 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

    Looking very good for Crawley tonight. One question, what causes the shift from heavy snow to sleet and then to heavy snow all in the space of 2 hours, under the same temps in the middle of the night?

     

     

    There is no snow for Crawley tonight

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

    Can I get in on that deal 

    You aren’t going to see snow in Southend no way, that’s clear, all it means is instead of all precip getting wasted in channel there’s a risk for southern coasts. Current state you think surely fishes but models take a little jump north could it be enough for some in coastal Kent/Sussex?


    31319712-FCB3-4783-8244-78580B6F1BB4.thumb.png.d7e0df9ae7c689c8644e27479262dfc5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
    56 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    At the end of the week as most of the Better performing Mesoscale Models come into range I will do a daily check on what Models are showing for the Upcoming Easterly to see what they are thinking - from the current ones we have that go to T120 atm its only GooFuS that is showing anything of note atm and thats maybe why the BBC are not jumping through hoops about next week having any potential. 

    When we get to T72 on Friday afternoon I will put some charts in here from the Various Models and do a daily summary to see what we are looking at

     Some socially distanced sledging down Crown Hill ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    12 minutes ago, Vesuvius said:

     Some socially distanced sledging down Crown Hill ?

    😀😀😀 Defo

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Temp 1.7c and DP 0.7c

    Down we go! I wonder as this cold spell goes how low we may get as the cold builds at the surface and mixes the warmer air out.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

    Latest BBC forecast shows the rain staying in the channel for our region.

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    Posted
  • Location: Godstone Surrey
  • Location: Godstone Surrey

    Thanks Paul ..looks like the SE is not back in the hunt for Snow  for the next 5 days ... the forecast for a NE flow tends to favour our region although some on the MOD thread suggesting the uppers  are still to warm but some say its looking good........waiting the updated forecast from  the Met with interest 

     

    Enjoy the seasonal feel ..its lovely outside

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    Posted
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill
  • Weather Preferences: snow, storms or both at same time..
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill

    defo won't be snow from this even if it had gone North a tad, as my temp has just gone up 2c to 4.1c in last 30 minutes as the edge of it gets closer.

    Haywards Heath, West Sussex

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    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon

    Temps and dew points gone negative in South Croydon.  Temp -0.1 dewpoint -0.6

    Edited by Trom
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