South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[snowblind]

5 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi Good Afternoon all

Hope everyone is well and safe been a frosty start in Walthamstow today but quite a bit of cloud floating around now. Some of the high level cloud is the source of that low pressure that is going to miss us.

The BBC have been up and down with their forecasts this week seems to change day by day. As I mentioned in my post yesterday a few days ago they were predicting quite a few snow showers to cross our region in time for new year, but that is no longer the case.Also I think what the programmed forecasts are streaming today is behind to what we are currently seeing in the models today so fingers crossed if the models are correct with this Easterly I would imagine the live forcasts will catch up with it in the next few days. So I would not worry about the BBC forecasts just yet unless they are seeing something different from their high resolution data that the models have not picked up, but to my understanding I think their live forecasts are behind the current models unless they update this evening.

Lets hope we do get these easterlies as I have always thought they are the best for our region. 

Hope everyone stays safe

kind regards

I remember before the BFTE in 2018 their temperature forecasts where 5 to 6 degrees and they kept going on about it being dry. They only changed their tune the day before and even then they still had the temps 2 to 3 degrees above freezing instead of sub-zero. So, hopefully, they are being similarly inaccurate now.

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

they look ok - but not sure how accurate they are at range. 

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, snowblind said:

I remember before the BFTE in 2018 their temperature forecasts where 5 to 6 degrees and they kept going on about it being dry. They only changed their tune the day before and even then they still had the temps 2 to 3 degrees above freezing instead of sub-zero. So, hopefully, they are being similarly inaccurate now.

Beeb will sit on the fence as long as they can. Their bottoms must be riddled with splinters.

[PLANET THANET]

11 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi Good Afternoon all

Hope everyone is well and safe been a frosty start in Walthamstow today but quite a bit of cloud floating around now. Some of the high level cloud is the source of that low pressure that is going to miss us.

The BBC have been up and down with their forecasts this week seems to change day by day. As I mentioned in my post yesterday a few days ago they were predicting quite a few snow showers to cross our region in time for new year, but that is no longer the case.Also I think what the programmed forecasts are streaming today is behind to what we are currently seeing in the models today so fingers crossed if the models are correct with this Easterly I would imagine the live forcasts will catch up with it in the next few days. So I would not worry about the BBC forecasts just yet unless they are seeing something different from their high resolution data that the models have not picked up, but to my understanding I think their live forecasts are behind the current models unless they update this evening.

Lets hope we do get these easterlies as I have always thought they are the best for our region. 

Hope everyone stays safe

kind regards

many thanks for your replies, lets hope they are wrong and everybody sees some snow especially after the year we have all gone through.

happy new year to you all 

[Stu_London]

No snow reports in the south west thread, rain reported on Dartmoor.

Rather it stay dry than rain again - looks like we dodged a bullet there fellow Southeasterners.

Edited December 30, 2020 by Stu_London

[chionomaniac]

I’ll try again loll 

latest radar

12z ukv run for 15:00 and 19:00

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, Southender said:

A good continental feed and we see lower dew points move in from near continent as this shows. 

[SMU]

Temps tumbling away now 4.3c max, now 3.1c

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I’ll try again loll 

latest radar

12z ukv run for 15:00 and 19:00

I guess we will see if theres any kick north

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I’ll try again loll 

latest radar

12z ukv run for 15:00 and 19:00

That’s not UKV that’s NetWx-SR which I’m told is a blend of NMM and GFS higher res than standard GFS.

Edited December 30, 2020 by Daniel*

[Eagle Eye]

Not exactly dfast moving. 

[chionomaniac]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That’s not UKV that’s NetWx-SR which I’m told is a blend of NMM and GFS higher res than standard GFS.

Nope it’s UKV despite saying sr 

[Eagle Eye]

Okay, anyone Fancy moving there. 

[paget]

Hi everyone, unfortunately I’ve misplaced my weather station!! I’m sorting my deceased parents house and carrying it around there, I’ve put it down and  I think I’ve piled about 20 full rubbish bags on it!!  So I’m going by the nearest weather station i can find!! So here in Farnham, Surrey (so pretty far west) its 

Temp 4 degrees  

dp 0 

it’s very grey and feeling cold out! 

[Jackski4]

Just now, Sheldon Cooper said:

Okay, anyone Fancy moving there. 

Bring me with you !!

[Polaris]

1 hour ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Hi all, hope you had a good Christmas...what it could be anyway!

Finally a bit of excitement to watch over the next few weeks, I was really hoping for a White Christmas or New Years Eve snow falling at Midnight whilst watching the Fireworks 

10 days ago from Christmas Day we were in with a shot 

10 days ago we were in with a shot for a snowy tomorrow 

Moral of the story. 10 day charts are pure entertainment 

10 days on, another snowless 7 days awaits 

You get the picture 

[Eagle Eye]

Air dropping from Scotland Early January will most likely bring Snow Showers with it. 

[Paul Sherman]

At the end of the week as most of the Better performing Mesoscale Models come into range I will do a daily check on what Models are showing for the Upcoming Easterly to see what they are thinking - from the current ones we have that go to T120 atm its only GooFuS that is showing anything of note atm and thats maybe why the BBC are not jumping through hoops about next week having any potential. 

When we get to T72 on Friday afternoon I will put some charts in here from the Various Models and do a daily summary to see what we are looking at

[NO LONGER POSTING]

48 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

That is the absolute bare minimum of what we’ll need. A real possibility of nasty, wet winteriness with that set up. She could be right... How soon can we get forecast DPs for the same period? 

On the coast maybe and within 15 miles of the coast.. 

I've noticed of my weather station (got it for Christmas..) that from around 6-8pm onwards it's been conductive for snow even in the setup we are in now. This doesn't even factor in height or evaporative cooling.. I'm 60ft above sea level here in the Thames Valley.. 

Remember it takes special conditions to get snow even in mainland UK. It takes something exceptional to get laying snow on the coast (usually) simply because the rule of thumb is "in summer the sea keeps the coast cool, in winter it keeps it warm" 

Trying to forecast snow events and temperatures beyond 48hrs is proving difficult at the moment.. Let alone a week! 

[Country Boy]

43 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi Good Afternoon all

Hope everyone is well and safe been a frosty start in Walthamstow today but quite a bit of cloud floating around now. Some of the high level cloud is the source of that low pressure that is going to miss us.

The BBC have been up and down with their forecasts this week seems to change day by day. As I mentioned in my post yesterday a few days ago they were predicting quite a few snow showers to cross our region in time for new year, but that is no longer the case.Also I think what the programmed forecasts are streaming today is behind to what we are currently seeing in the models today so fingers crossed if the models are correct with this Easterly I would imagine the live forcasts will catch up with it in the next few days. So I would not worry about the BBC forecasts just yet unless they are seeing something different from their high resolution data that the models have not picked up, but to my understanding I think their live forecasts are behind the current models unless they update this evening.

Lets hope we do get these easterlies as I have always thought they are the best for our region. 

Hope everyone stays safe

kind regards

I am an old Walthamstow Boy, and remember  the winter of 1962/63...Great fun that was, but poor old milkman trying to get round and big  queue   for the paraffin man..Remember BBC now get their forecasts from Meto  , but the met office with their massive computers in Exeter  all ways seem to come out on top.

Just heard that the Beast from the East has booked his UK ticket.

[snowy weather]

Looking very good for Crawley tonight. One question, what causes the shift from heavy snow to sleet and then to heavy snow all in the space of 2 hours, under the same temps in the middle of the night?

 

 

[SussexSaint]

10 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

Looking very good for Crawley tonight. One question, what causes the shift from heavy snow to sleet and then to heavy snow all in the space of 2 hours, under the same temps in the middle of the night?

 

 

Good for what? There may be a frost but I can’t see a lot else on the horizon

 

[snowy weather]

1 minute ago, SussexSaint said:

Good for what? There may be a frost but I can’t see a lot else on the horizon

 

BBC showing heavy snow throughout the night. 

[SussexSaint]

Just now, snowy weather said:

BBC showing heavy snow throughout the night. 

Fair enough buddy,I want snow as much as everybody else but ( personally) I don’t trust the BBC apps,but I sure hope they are right

[snowrye]

3 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

BBC showing heavy snow throughout the night. 

On a forecast 10 hrs behind lol