South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Tom Jarvis]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Good Morning

Still keeping 1 eye on the PPN

 

Anyway I think the confidence of heavy showers moving in from the East is high now from the 4th

Here are the 850s & Freezing levels.

Best case scenario is about -9c & 100M which in the current climate & how things have been is great.

Worst case is probably -6c & 300M 

so still a day or 2 to firm up but getting interesting

Just hope the showers will be able to reach my location but not that hopeful  

[Biggin]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

They’re heading in direction of Cambridge.

ATM. That will change.

[MAF]

19 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

A lot high level cloud here, but some sunshine at times and it doesn’t feel that cold as the wind is very light.

Very unsure about the period where the wind veers east to north easterly. The margins are very tight between a lot of rain showers and something more palatable....

just popped out for some fresh air (in other words, to have a smoke) away from the office. standing on lambeth bridge overlooking houses of parliament and it feels quite pleasant in the sun. not much breeze either. all in all its a nice day out there in central London  

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by MAF

[Eagle Eye]

Lovely Skies can't believe a Massive Precipitation System Is Coming our way. 

 

[MAF]

of the many tools available for seeing what is the up-to-the-minute weather is doing. i sometimes check the traffic cameras out > 

Welcome to Traffic England

WWW.TRAFFICENGLAND.COM

---

Traffic England

 gives a good idea of what is actually falling out the sky  

[alexisj9]

It's all rain so far in the SW, as we'll be north of the low, and it'll be more developed, do we get an easterly feed once it's come this way?

[Eagle Eye]

Would be nice if it comes through Early Morning when the Temperature Is the lowest. 

[chionomaniac]

16 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Lovely Skies can't believe a Massive Precipitation System Is Coming our way. 

 

Two reasons for that, sheldon.

1. There isn’t a massive precipitation system, and

2. What there is, is not heading towards you.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Guys, that low is only going to drop precipitation on the fish in the channel. 

You need to put a red line through that one and start to look towards a potential easterly (though it could be marginal).

[Essexfish]

BBC Lunchtime weather having none of it for Easterly going into the weekend. Cold rain and temps of 6-7 by day into the first week of Jan. Model output suggests otherwise but it does look marginal to say the least.

[chionomaniac]

Latest comparison, anyway

[Ben M]

Sara Thornton just on BBC S.E (always love her forecasts btw she's so clear and succinct) started off with "Snow lovers may be disappointed" lol aren't we allways! 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Ben M

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

 

Just seen the Look East temperature projection for next Tuesday/Wednesday and 6c with north easterly winds!!! Sara Thornton said 'we lose the real cold air' (of tomorrow) - so if this is the case those SST's will be superfluous - really that high? Personally feel it will be a colder than that, we didn't reach 4c on Xmas day with near -5c 850 uppers.

Edited December 30, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[Speedbird]

5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Latest comparison, anyway

You'd have to say that the latest radar does show the system to be quite further north - although maybe not so much as to keep most of us in the south/south east too interested.

[chionomaniac]

Just now, Speedbird said:

You'd have to say that the latest radar does show the system to be quite further north - although maybe not so much as to keep most of us in the south/south east too interested.

Yep. Not expecting anything, but I won’t turn my back on it either

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Just seen the Look East temperature projection for next Tuesday/Wednesday and 6c with north easterly winds!!! Sara Thornton said 'we lose the real cold air' (of tomorrow) - so if this is the case those SST's will be superfluous - really that high? Personally feel it will be a colder than that, we didn't reach 4c on Xmas day with near -5c 850 uppers.

She clearly doesn’t know what she’s talking about  

[BLS]

It’s a very long way away atm but some charts have been consistent with it over the last couple of days but Monday and going into Tuesday could be a very interesting one especially for Kent and Sussex. Anyone else have an opinion on it ? 

[alexisj9]

The low is closing, check wind in SW, there's a small east wind starting in Cornwall.

[BLS]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

The low is closing, check wind in SW, there's a small east wind starting in Cornwall.

Got a screenshot or anything of this as I still think it looks as though it’s dropping into the channel 

[Polaris]

What with this predicted 48hrs ago via Meto and models.

Anything showing 4th Jan onwards is fantasy. 
I suggest to everyone to keep it real and keep your sanity for anything remotely wintery T24 Maximum 

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Polaris said:

What with this predicted 48hrs ago via Meto and models.

Anything showing 4th Jan onwards is fantasy. 
I suggest to everyone to keep it real and keep your sanity for anything remotely wintery T24 Maximum 

There’s a large difference between a low pressure system which can inevitably shift much further north or south and convective cold easterlies which are most reliable for SE. 

[Jackski4]

When do the 12zs start rolling guys?

[Damp and dreary]

19 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Just seen the Look East temperature projection for next Tuesday/Wednesday and 6c with north easterly winds!!! Sara Thornton said 'we lose the real cold air' (of tomorrow) - so if this is the case those SST's will be superfluous - really that high? Personally feel it will be a colder than that, we didn't reach 4c on Xmas day with near -5c 850 uppers.

Agree with you fellow Partridge nut! I dont mind her as a forecaster but, she seems to be saying the opposite of what the charts and us lot are saying/seeing? the end of the weekend to the start of next week is meant to be colder coming with the easterly....

[Speedbird]

2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

When do the 12zs start rolling guys?

around 3.30pm

[Polaris]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

There’s a large difference between a low pressure system which can inevitably shift much further north or south and convective cold easterlies which are most reliable for SE. 

I Agree. 
Easterlies are far more reliable than a Low Pressure System in from West. 
However 4th Jan Is still a long way off for either a Convective activity bombard to a damp drizzle damp squib. 
 

fingers crossed it’s showing 12T 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Polaris