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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Upper Belvedere, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sunny days!
  • Location: Upper Belvedere, Kent.

    Have been in this same situation many times.  I'll be more than happy for a smattering of snow, some frost, but not rain! 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    38 minutes ago, moogyboobles said:

    The cold morning yesterday was lovely here in SWF.
    I hope we have a snow day soon.

     

    christmas frosty 2020-2.jpg

    christmas frosty 2020-3.jpg

    christmas frosty 2020-4.jpg

    christmas frosty 2020-5.jpg

    christmas frosty 2020-6.jpg

    christmas frosty 2020-9.jpg

    Yaaayy!! no.4 my favourite...good all swans, usually going up that ramp to get food. Very atmospheric, not like that here yesterday morn.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    Just seen the fax chart for tomorrow night in the MAD thread. Perhaps some hope for the Northern crew with a trough and more organised showers spinning off the low.

     

     

    1B010EB9-BE4A-4B1F-833B-855DD0EFCB64.webp

    Edited by Southender
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Interesting temp profiles today > daytime low 2s then rising to peak at 1030 3.8c

     

    Now skies clearing 3.4c on the way down..

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    Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
    1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Interestingly the Pub run setting up a few Streamers from 9pm Sunday night through to Middle of next week so lets see how that plays out.

    What I will give GooFuS credit for is picking up trends in the 6-10 day range so this is 1 option I will not discount.

    Get in....

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    Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
    1 hour ago, moogyboobles said:

    The cold morning yesterday was lovely here in SWF.
    I hope we have a snow day soon.

     

    christmas frosty 2020-2.jpg

    christmas frosty 2020-3.jpg

    christmas frosty 2020-4.jpg

    christmas frosty 2020-5.jpg

    christmas frosty 2020-6.jpg

    christmas frosty 2020-9.jpg

    Great pics.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    I think that stuff near Ireland is heading for around Cornwall. Haven't looked at models, so don't know if that's good or bad.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    The Channel runner is the ultimate high risk system.

    Risk of it missing completely or coming in too far north leaving most of Kent and Sussex with rain 

    My thinking is that the marginality is a bit riskier that the hi res models are suggesting - incoming after dark helps a bit with the air temps -not sure it's a lot of help with the dewpoints. 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    9pm tomorrow heads up the channel staying mostly offshore, then progged to take a bit of a NE track up the straight. Perhaps clipping the coasts and fuelling some shower activity as it slips away. Either way it ain’t looking great, unless we see some big changes to the track overnight.

     

    40B67CEB-865F-4053-8BDB-426F632CD9A6.jpeg

    Edited by Southender
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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    7 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

    The Channel runner is the ultimate high risk system.

    Risk of it missing completely or coming in too far north leaving most of Kent and Sussex with rain 

    My thinking is that the marginality is a bit riskier that the hi res models are suggesting - incoming after dark helps a bit with the air temps -not sure it's a lot of help with the dewpoints. 

     

     

    Expect the Unexpected Stu I think

    Today from 9am to 3pm Temps never rose above 2.1c with Dewpoints at 1.7c in SE Essex

    Compare that with now and its 3.6c and 2.5c on the Dewpoint on me Weather Station and most of the SE is not favourable.

    Areas like Lyneham, Boscombe Down , Bristol etc are defo in the game though with primed conditions for the Slider if its far enough North.

    Edited by Paul Sherman
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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    indeed

    Usually the knife edge is either track or marginality - I think both are very finely balanced here. 

    Definitely one for the radar and ultimately the lamppost. 

    O/T - are you confident of getting out to the states with a tour next year?

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    18z EC shows a dusting south of London later tomorrow ...

    ecmwf-deterministic-uk-thickness_mslp_prcp6hr-9383600.thumb.png.dcf9c0f5bfa7bfd0de117375056f5692.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-total_snow_10to1_cm-9412400.thumb.png.4b72276203a0cfc823de334f9c68d407.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Nope currently at the heady heights of 2% chance and thats being optimistic at this stage

    Pretty sure on current calculations its gunna take us years to vaccinate enough people and good old Murica will be even further behind with Population 5 times ours.

    Gotta gear myself up for my 3 flashes of Lightning per year again 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Nope currently at the heady heights of 2% chance and thats being optimistic at this stage

    Pretty sure on current calculations its gunna take us years to vaccinate enough people and good old Murica will be even further behind with Population 5 times ours.

    Gotta gear myself up for my 3 flashes of Lightning per year again 

    I guess the season will come just too soon for you this year. I imagine that even if technically possible, logistically navigating through multiple states with different rules etc, would be a nightmare. 

    Would still like to another one at some point, maybe 2022

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

    I guess the season will come just too soon for you this year. I imagine that even if technically possible, logistically navigating through multiple states with different rules etc, would be a nightmare. 

    Would still like to another one at some point, maybe 2022

    Sounds good mate would love to get you a Dodge City day and celebrate in Style with a few cold ones

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Arome 18z is 💩 for tomorrow , This is as good as it gets on this run .

    2279458B-76E6-4AB7-905F-9E97AC567BA1.png

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    I'll believe it when I see it I'm in Kent and very close to Greater London and I didn't expect anything Wednesday afternoon seems too soon? but u never know maybe they see something we don't I wish the word "Rain" would bugger off though we all just want snow😄

    Screenshot_20201230-025643_Met Office.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Is this a snowy thames streamer I see popping up in 7days time on latest GFS which makes more of lasting East/Northeasterly flow with minus 8 850s these little incremental improvements to the forecast uppers could make all the difference between rain or snow!

    Screenshot_20201230-041841_Samsung Internet.jpg

    20201230_041810.jpg

    20201230_041751.jpg

    20201230_041731.jpg

    Screenshot_20201230-041453_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20201230-041841_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Upgrades to the depth of the cold spell continue minus double figure upper air temps on latest ECM 0z! Albeit at day 9 and 10, with a lovely likely snow laden Easterly? Great end to ECM!l for our region and GFS earlier was promising usually the 0z runs tend to be less promising  could we be starting to see a response to the ongoing early days of the SSW?

    ECM0-240.gif

    Screenshot_20201230-070122_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20201230-070111_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex
    8 hours ago, Southender said:

    Blimey. You actually have frost in Woodham!

    Us in Southend have no idea what that is.

    Great pictures. Love the Anchor 🍻

     We have another frost this morning too, I'm sure this happened more often when I were little. 

    Ah pubs, I do miss them. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow - Frost - A beach in the Med
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL

    Quite a heavy ground frost in Cambs when I left this morning  , nothing over in Milton Keynes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton

    Frost here too, disappointed with the cold snap so far 

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