South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Neilsouth]

Watched the latest forecast and the snow is barely touching the coast... what the?

Temps are good here 1.5C, 1.0C just up the road :)

[lewis028]

17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

HARMONIE model still good for most of SE this is a decent model. They’ve not completely fallen into line yet.

still looks more of a south of the Thames affair but as always,  will be a now casting event, abit of interest tomorrow tracking the low and seeing where it may end up. It may even pivoting back round for north of the Thames and exit southeast? 

[dallas]

Hope these ensembles are right with precipitation spike

Wetterzentrale.de - Diagrams

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

---

Forecasted Temp 850hPa & Precipitation from GFS, 12Z

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

20 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

HARMONIE model still good for most of SE this is a decent model. They’ve not completely fallen into line yet.

The trend today across the models is a more southern route. Very apparent. However.. The wrap around through Kent might bring the goodies but it will all depend on how the temps play out with mixing of the warmer sea air.. Can be a killer for people within 10 miles of the coast for it to then suddenly turn to snow.. 

I think on this occasion its playing out to be a miss. I'm not dismissing the chance yet for more people to come into the game until the 6z and 12z tomorrow.. Even then, it will probably come down to radar and Sat views and comparing what's going on to the high res models.. 

Just yesterday every single model did pretty poorly until the Arome actually changed on the 6z yesterday and pulled ppn into West London and that happened.. Albeit the snow single was way to much given the temps... 

Snow is the single most hardest weather to forecast on our tiny island because of the various factors. Its okay when you are in mainland Russia with - 20 uppers and a dew point of about -10! (lol) 

 

 

 

 

[Kentspur]

What a GEM but will it be right or a huge flop?

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Kentspur said:

What a GEM but will it be right or a huge flop?

No words about that just

[kold weather]

44 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

From a team member to @Sheldon Cooper. Keep posting and trying to interpret the models. Love your enthusiasm even if it a little misjudged at times. But we are all guilty of that and being so young and keen you have the potential to be far more knowledgeable than many on here given time. I’m always happy to help if you are unsure of something, just link me in to your post and when available I will help if possible.

Ask @kold weather what age he was when he first posted and then ask him what he is up to nowadays. So keep plugging on. Oh and sometimes less is more too, so remember that before hitting the return button too.

Yeah, literally been on this site half my life. I waa 14 when I first started here, back in those bleak 00s year where even getting a below average month felt borderline impossible (we went nearly 2 years without one at one point!) 

@Sheldon Cooper keep at it as others have said, you maybe young but that doesn't mean your contributions are worth less, and indeed you may view things from a different point of view which may end up being correct. 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Cloud to the East any Early Evening Convection could bring Sleet Late Night along with it. 

[Floatylight]

19 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Best thing to do is look Outside Temperatures near freezing we just need Some Precipitation Tonight and just maybe. Of course though the Temps need to fall even more and everything to line up. 

Some heading our way.

They mostly been pushing off to the west. 

But seem to be dropping down more now.

A blob nr Norfolk atm and more incoming...

Sitting in colchester chasing precipitation on the radar  

[Country Boy]

New updated long range from Met Office

 

Likely remaining cold throughout this period with the risk of wintry hazards. It will be dry at times, with the driest and clearest conditions likely in the west and northwest, and showers likely further east. These showers often wintry with hill snow but with a chance of snow falling to lower-levels at times. There is potential for spells of more organised precipitation, accompanied by stronger winds to move north from the continent into southern and central areas. Additionally, there is also the potential for precipitation to move into northern areas if high pressure declines. Both scenarios could bring an associated snow risk particularly over hills. Temperatures are likely to be below average bringing the risk of frost and freezing fog along with very cold overnight temperatures over any snow cover.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 29 Dec 2020

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Current temps off the weather station here are :

 

DP of 1.6c and temp of 3.4c so still way to warm across most the region i imagine for snow. 

Joining the conversation on people's input...

regardless of your knowledge on weather and climate you should post what you think and your opinions. People then SHOULD have a constructive conversation with you about different opinions and outcomes. That way we all learn. 

People are quick to shoot people down when they are trying in this world, hence why we have so many issues with people being scared and frightened to air their views and take on new challenges. 

 

[Paul Sherman]

3 minutes ago, Country Boy said:

New updated long range from Met Office

 

Likely remaining cold throughout this period with the risk of wintry hazards. It will be dry at times, with the driest and clearest conditions likely in the west and northwest, and showers likely further east. These showers often wintry with hill snow but with a chance of snow falling to lower-levels at times. There is potential for spells of more organised precipitation, accompanied by stronger winds to move north from the continent into southern and central areas. Additionally, there is also the potential for precipitation to move into northern areas if high pressure declines. Both scenarios could bring an associated snow risk particularly over hills. Temperatures are likely to be below average bringing the risk of frost and freezing fog along with very cold overnight temperatures over any snow cover.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 29 Dec 2020

If you run the last few ECM (HRF) Runs this shows what the Met are saying above with areas of Precip moving in from France probably being a Snow to Rain event for the South.

[Speedbird]

4 minutes ago, Country Boy said:

New updated long range from Met Office

 

Likely remaining cold throughout this period with the risk of wintry hazards. It will be dry at times, with the driest and clearest conditions likely in the west and northwest, and showers likely further east. These showers often wintry with hill snow but with a chance of snow falling to lower-levels at times. There is potential for spells of more organised precipitation, accompanied by stronger winds to move north from the continent into southern and central areas. Additionally, there is also the potential for precipitation to move into northern areas if high pressure declines. Both scenarios could bring an associated snow risk particularly over hills. Temperatures are likely to be below average bringing the risk of frost and freezing fog along with very cold overnight temperatures over any snow cover.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 29 Dec 2020

Battleground scenario.

[jamesgold]

I like that MET update a lot, especially moving systems up from the continent, if we get cold enough air in place. I remember something similar in January 2013 (20th I think) where I got lots here in Bromley from a little low that moved from France 

[SMU]

Dont look at GEFS PTB 28. Its PPN on a ratio 1:10 gives us 70cm snow from the Weds slider

Edited December 29, 2020 by Steve Murr

[80sWeather]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

I feel so sorry for you Mate - Wish you could have seen the 2010, 1991 and 1987 snowfalls

All 3 had over 34cm level snow with 1987 and 1991 having 20-30foot drifts in places. Truly Historic

Feb 91 was sweet as just two months before (Dec 1990) we had to watch the midlands get trounced by a blizzard.

[kold weather]

The 12z GFS ensembles are quite interesting to say the least.

They've shifted northwards.

Still quite a wide range of difference between the models at the moment as well.

Generally the OP runs from the models are all running south of their ensembles. Maybe due to higher resolution. It does seem like the higher the resolution the more south the models are taking this set-up...

[Eagle Eye]

According to Relatives there has been Snow in June, Snow above the Door here Snow is getting less and less. 

[Paul Sherman]

Interesting ECM coming up in an hour - My guess is the Precip will be barely a coast scraper and GFS and its perbs will catch up on its 18z and 00z runs.

I pray to all that I am wrong and watching where the entry and exit point this time tomorrow will be exciting none the less.

Agree if anyone can do well out of this it will be the South Downs of Kent and Sussex

[Southender]

5 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Interesting ECM coming up in an hour - My guess is the Precip will be barely a coast scraper and GFS and its perbs will catch up on its 18z and 00z runs.

I pray to all that I am wrong and watching where the entry and exit point this time tomorrow will be exciting none the less.

Agree if anyone can do well out of this it will be the South Downs of Kent and Sussex

....Or the ECM sticks to its guns and confuses us all further....and every other model comes into line with ECM over the next 12 hours 

I'm with you though Paul. The trend is South not North unfortunately.

Hopefully some lucky ones in Kent/Sussex catch a covering.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Southender

[NO LONGER POSTING]

13 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

According to Relatives there has been Snow in June, Snow above the Door here Snow is getting less and less. 

I won't go deep into this conversation as we could probably have a Skype call about it for years.. 

I've always had the opinion that as we warm up our planet our climate will turn more and more tropical. With the risk one day maybe in 50 maybe in 100 years of hurricanes actually making it to our shores thanks to ingredients being much more available. People will call me mad.. But in the past 10 years we were very very close.. I think it was Ophilia (can't spell it!!!) came very close.. 

Warm (hot) dry summers with immense thunderstorms (that dreadful Channel killer of storms will diminish) and warmer wetter winters with little or no snow/cold away from the usual spots.. 

However, we don't fully understand the impacts yet but we do know storms are bigger stronger and more powerful when you give them warmth!! 

[westHimalayanfoothills]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I won't go deep into this conversation as we could probably have a Skype call about it for years.. 

I've always had the opinion that as we warm up our planet our climate will turn more and more tropical. With the risk one day maybe in 50 maybe in 100 years of hurricanes actually making it to our shores thanks to ingredients being much more available. People will call me mad.. But in the past 10 years we were very very close.. I think it was Ophilia (can't spell it!!!) came very close.. 

Warm (hot) dry summers with immense thunderstorms (that dreadful Channel killer of storms will diminish) and warmer wetter winters with little or no snow/cold away from the usual spots.. 

However, we don't fully understand the impacts yet but we do know storms are bigger stronger and more powerful when you give them warmth!! 

U know where im from pakistan in the southren foothills of himalaya my village is at 1200-1300m approximately. My parents and grandparent always used to tell me that it used to snow so heavy and accumulate around 40-70cm per westren depression but now a days our village barely gets 10cm a year if we are lucky and snow line has moved maybe around 1900m when a westren depression comes. However it feels like monsoon has become way heavier in the region. 

[Eagle Eye]

9 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I won't go deep into this conversation as we could probably have a Skype call about it for years.. 

I've always had the opinion that as we warm up our planet our climate will turn more and more tropical. With the risk one day maybe in 50 maybe in 100 years of hurricanes actually making it to our shores thanks to ingredients being much more available. People will call me mad.. But in the past 10 years we were very very close.. I think it was Ophilia (can't spell it!!!) came very close.. 

Warm (hot) dry summers with immense thunderstorms (that dreadful Channel killer of storms will diminish) and warmer wetter winters with little or no snow/cold away from the usual spots.. 

However, we don't fully understand the impacts yet but we do know storms are bigger stronger and more powerful when you give them warmth!! 

Yes most likely but it could cut the Gulf Stream apparantly so we could end up in a cycle. 

[dallas]

Paul from the team (site development) has just posted something nice in the MOD thread

[Joanne Swann]

I was remembering the snow cup we had here a few years ago, if I didn't do well in the even a hole in the mud filled up with snow didn't help my result  but it was fun