South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Hotspur62]

Latest Harmonie looks good for Sussex Surrey Kent Essex Greater London and possibly suffolk(south Suffolk).However,this is no where near a done deal and I would say no model has a great handle on this and margain of error is 30-50 miles north or south of the Harmonie so there could be celebrations or a downbeat mood by Thursday morning.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Hotspur62

[lewis028]

Icon 06z brings the low further north and us back into play on that run for Wednesday night/Thursday morning

[pureasthedriven]

22 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looks good ...

If Harmonie is on board, we have half a chance. Lose that one, and... 

[simonhall6]

5 minutes ago, lewis028 said:

Icon 06z brings the low further north and us back into play on that run for Wednesday night/Thursday morning

Hi Lewis 

 

Have you got the latest Icon charts you can share ? 
 

thanks 

[lewis028]

12 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

Hi Lewis 

 

Have you got the latest Icon charts you can share ? 
 

thanks 

Hi Simon,

Yeah have attached them, will take with a pinch of salt but good to have on board. 
 

gfs 6z still has most of the southeast in the game, just takes out north of the Thames.

I would wait and see what the harmonie update looks like within the hour  

 

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by lewis028

[tomp456]

19 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Snow forecast for our region wednesday nigh up to 5 cm,that will do before the much colder air arrives at weekend and lower dewpoints.

reverse psychology. 
 

ps yes 

 

 

[DEYS(Kent)]

Still rain for coastal districts as Dp remain wrong side of zero. West and North Kent in the sweet spot.

[Daniel*]

I’m happy to see latest ICON go north I rate this model a lot seems likely from across board parts of Kent and Sussex will see something probably London near the northern extent so a very tense time for us Londoners.
 

The GFS also has gone north I don’t think this is a terrible model when it comes to non convective PPN so good to see.

[Scandinavian High.]

South east looking be sweet spot also bbc forecast looking same interesting Thursday it looks  band pivot back in south east England..

7A4C1BD6-90B6-41D7-840F-634CCA325248.webp

[Hammer]

ICON 06z has low at T48 in English Channel, whereas on ICON 00z it had low in Northern France. ICON and Harmonie, certainly looking good for the southern most part of this region, but also a little bit north of London also. 

I suspect snow line will end up being about a mile South of me. 

[simonhall6]

6 minutes ago, lewis028 said:

Hi Simon,

Yeah have attached them, will take with a pinch of salt but good to have on board. 
 

gfs 6z still has most of the southeast in the game, just takes out north of the Thames.

I would wait and see what the harmonie update looks like within the hour  

Thanks, at least that’s another model that keeps us all in the game

[Paul Sherman]

15 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m happy to see latest ICON go north I rate this model a lot seems likely from across board parts of Kent and Sussex will see something probably London near the northern extent so a very tense time for us Londoners.
 

The GFS also has gone north I don’t think this is a terrible model when it comes to non convective PPN so good to see.

I think you meant to say it copies other Models when it comes to Non and Convective Precip. Its bloody awful with anything Mesoscale this side and on its own turf in the States.

But I guess we all have our own favoured models so no worries there Dan 

In fact in 17 years of chasing and over 1000 Storm Chases I have used this Model the grand sum of........... 0 Times lol

Edited December 29, 2020 by Paul Sherman

[Biggin]

Anyone else think  its gone a bit quiet on the mod forum this morning ?? It seems a bit glum, as if things are not going to plan after so many  stella runs, maybe the predicted SSW can get us back on track?

[Jackski4]

Whew! Been a while since I’ve replied on one of these threads but i just have to say: the BBC do not want to go anywhere near the potential snow for tomorrow night, they’re so afraid of being wrong! Been watching news all morning as well as regularly checking this thread- and they don’t seem to want to go past 3PM tomorrow afternoon....

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I think you meant to say it copies other Models when it comes to Non and Convective Precip. Its bloody awful with anything Mesoscale this side and on its own turf in the States.

But I guess we all have our own favoured models so no worries there Dan 

In fact in 17 years of chasing and over 1000 Storm Chases I have used this Model the grand sum of........... 0 Times lol

I disagree Paul, I have experience with GFS I don’t look at it a lot, but with these sort of situations I do, and occasionally it was the one to go on its own path and prove right. I’ve seen it happen more than a few times, they say even a broken clock is right twice a day, well....

[pureasthedriven]

1 minute ago, Biggin said:

Anyone else think  its gone a bit quiet on the mod forum this morning ?? It seems a bit glum, as if things are not going to plan after so many  stella runs, maybe the predicted SSW can get us back on track?

Overnight runs definitely saw a shift in emphasis in the models, but it’s just one suite and the 18z last night was outlandish, frankly. Having a quick skim through the 00z there does seem to be an emerging tendency to slow any retrogression of heights into Greenland/Iceland down a bit and begin to introduce the idea of Iberian heights. MetO text update keeping its feet on the floor but even then, still references the chance of ‘very cold’ conditions into mid Jan - not often they do that. All to play for going forward I think but this period between Christmas and New Year always looked like bonus territory for us down here anyway. 

[Speedbird]

31 minutes ago, lewis028 said:

Hi Simon,

Yeah have attached them, will take with a pinch of salt but good to have on board. 
 

gfs 6z still has most of the southeast in the game, just takes out north of the Thames.

I would wait and see what the harmonie update looks like within the hour  

 

 

 

 

Eastwood is still in the game according to the bottom chart

[SLEETY]

15 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Anyone else think  its gone a bit quiet on the mod forum this morning ?? It seems a bit glum, as if things are not going to plan after so many  stella runs, maybe the predicted SSW can get us back on track?

Because they live off each run and ECM went milder at the end,despite it being mild outlier at end.

The model thread can become tiresome in winter...unless minus 20 upper air is invading from east in fl or the ensembles,even tough they never verify

Edited December 29, 2020 by SLEETY

[Country Boy]

Not sure how many on here remember the winter of 1962/63.

But if you want to see a real Winter go to 

YouTube , search winter 62/ 63.  Sit back and  enjoy the snow.

[Captain Shortwave]

Overcast skies here, there is some patchy rain/sleet to the west of here on the radar.

[SLEETY]

9 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

Overnight runs definitely saw a shift in emphasis in the models, but it’s just one suite and the 18z last night was outlandish, frankly. Having a quick skim through the 00z there does seem to be an emerging tendency to slow any retrogression of heights into Greenland/Iceland down a bit and begin to introduce the idea of Iberian heights. MetO text update keeping its feet on the floor but even then, still references the chance of ‘very cold’ conditions into mid Jan - not often they do that. All to play for going forward I think but this period between Christmas and New Year always looked like bonus territory for us down here anyway. 

but none of that is in the reliable timeframe is it,why do latter charts get more attention than the earlier charts where ukmo was excellent

[lewis028]

Harmonie 6z slightly south I think, mainly south of the Thames and keeps the south east in play, heavier precipitation in the channel, swings round and brings north of the Thames in, still ok for our region and still time for upgrades, but most of us should be seeing something falling out the sky

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by lewis028

[Laurence Hill]

21 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Anyone else think  its gone a bit quiet on the mod forum this morning ?? It seems a bit glum, as if things are not going to plan after so many  stella runs, maybe the predicted SSW can get us back on track?

Does seem a bit down, then I listened to John Hammond on LBC about an hour ago, he seemed very upbeat about the cold prospects.

[Lampostwatcher]

Let's see if the met change there warnings with the northern extent of the low weds evening 

 

[pureasthedriven]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

but none of that is in the reliable timeframe is it,why do latter charts get more attention than the earlier charts where ukmo was excellent

Well, indeed. Always a tendency over there to bemoan the breakdown before the cold has even properly started! As far as this region is concerned, into next weekend still looks to have a lot of interest and my focus is only on that. Get to that modelled point and then the 10+ day period will be different anyway.