South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Matty88]

I would discard that beeb forecast for now... Latest flip isn’t great news for snow lovers in EA tomorrow I fear but I’m liking the look of convective developments behind that especially if we can line up a north easterly flow which would be great for my location.
 

Fascinating chart watching at the moment and no doubt more of us will be seeing snow in the next 7 days...

Fun times ahead! 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Matty88

[Paul Sherman]

4 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

I would discard that beeb forecast for now... Latest flip isn’t great news for snow lovers in EA tomorrow I fear but I’m liking the look of convective developments behind that especially if we can line up a north easterly flow which would be great for my location.
 

Fascinating chart watching at the moment and no doubt more of us will be seeing snow in the next 7 days...

Fun times ahead! 

I hope your right Matty

But why do I get this horrible feeling most in the SE are going to get to the 5th of Jan without any snow to show for this spell and missing out on too marginal this and too far west that etc.

We would have to be very very unlucky to not hit even 1 of these pop up events but if Wed-Fri is a dud thats 2 down already and the Easterly dont look amazing to my eyes for what follows. 

Lets get Wednesday outta the way first I suppose and who's feeling lucky lol

[Number 23]

2 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

I would discard that beeb forecast for now... Latest flip isn’t great news for snow lovers in EA tomorrow I fear but I’m liking the look of convective developments behind that especially if we can line up a north easterly flow which would be great for my location.
 

Fascinating chart watching at the moment and no doubt more of us will be seeing snow in the next 7 days...

Fun times ahead! 

Been very interesting to watch the suggested pattern slowly become reality over the past couple of weeks. Given me something to do while in lockdown!

I think many will be getting impatient for some of those impressive synoptics to bring something to the surface before long though. I'd really like to see some proper cold creeping into the 144 range before long. 

That's just pure cynicism after years of watching things go pear shaped though, and totally against the background signals for early Jan

[loafer]

A real model battle underway. ECM sees it too far south (BBC use this for their forecast) whereas the GFS and ICON have it right over Sussex and Kent.

 

[Nick F]

Don't look at the 03z UKV if you're expecting snow tomorrow! No wonder the BBC forecasts aren't going into much detail for tomorrow!

[TROY]

Morning all, MostlyFrost free here this morning in East Dene temps just around zero. Not any wind too speak of. Rather cloudy. Hope it stays dry, we had a lot of rain again yesterday. Take care and the best of health to you all.

[dallas]

16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Don't look at the 03z UKV if you're expecting snow tomorrow! No wonder the BBC forecasts aren't going into much detail for tomorrow!

Here's hoping you practice reverse psychology Nick

[clark3r]

What a tease that was from the ecm last night, hope it will flip back this eve, all I want is to see falling snow we really struggle these days 

[simonhall6]

Just watched the latest BBC forecast and the forecast has changed with less snow for the SE and EA and no pivot like we had on last nights ECM but it does still show snow for London and the Home Counties from tomorrow night  but just not the amount it was showing on last nights forecast . 

[paget]

Morning all, it’s frosty here in Farnham, Surrey

Temp 0  degrees, dp -0 

I’m keeping my fingers crossed for something tomorrow but I won’t get too excited yet!! 
after we have sorted out my parents house we are selling up ours and there’s and moving to Scotland, hoping for a bit more up there!! Knowing my luck it will bring it all down here!! 
 

Have a safe day 

Sue x 

[Lampostwatcher]

2 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

Just watched the latest BBC forecast and the forecast has changed with less snow for the SE and EA and no pivot like we had on last nights ECM but it does still show snow for London and the Home Counties from tomorrow night  but just not the amount it was showing on last nights forecast . 

How far north did the snow line go ?

[pureasthedriven]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

On the more worrying flip side watch the BBC forecasts drop the snow from the graphics as we go through the day today as the latest ECM has completely dropped the notion of a SE plastering with dribs and drabs skirting the coast and Southern Home Counties with sleet and some Wet Snow over the South Downs and Chilterns.

 

As per MetO overnight text update for our region. Talk about avoid the issue! 

[lawrenk]

31 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I hope your right Matty

But why do I get this horrible feeling most in the SE are going to get to the 5th of Jan without any snow to show for this spell and missing out on too marginal this and too far west that etc.

We would have to be very very unlucky to not hit even 1 of these pop up events but if Wed-Fri is a dud thats 2 down already and the Easterly dont look amazing to my eyes for what follows. 

Lets get Wednesday outta the way first I suppose and who's feeling lucky lol

Very true, I have similar feelings.

It’s been great fun following the mod output thread recently but the truth is, thus far, I’ve not even had a frost, never mind what we’re all really after. Just slate grey skies, sodden ground and temps between about 2 and 6.

My fear is that these synoptics won’t sustain forever and we can’t afford to waste too long waiting to hit the jackpot.

Nothing technical in this whatsoever and, hopefully, I’m just having a “glass half empty moment”!

[jamesgold]

9 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

How far north did the snow line go ?

Initially just north of London but it moved the area north into EA only overnight into Thursday 

[Lampostwatcher]

Latest icon looks OK 

Further north 

[Paul Sherman]

Anyone got the Harmonie Charts as that seems to have nailed both Sunday Night into Mondays Snow and indeed Last Night into Todays area as well.

ICON further North on its 06z

In terms of Models so Far

ICON 50/50

ECM 20/80

GFS 80/20 (But this Model is awful for neartime Mesoscale and copies and catches up to the High Res)

Would like to see Harmonie though if anyone has it

[simonhall6]

13 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

How far north did the snow line go ?

 

[WxHerts]

John Hammond just on lbc he’s clearly backing the more northern track for tomorrow (also touted a bfte late Jan but that’s another matter lol)..but seems the trend is overall going south as you would expect.

 

[simonhall6]

2 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

 

They have changed their wording though to a little bit of Wintriness !

Edited December 29, 2020 by simonhall6

[lewis028]

Harmonie is still on board for our region, too far out to see if this pivots yet. Next update due at 11am. Euro 4 completely misses us. Confidence still low by the looks of it, fingers crossed !

Edited December 29, 2020 by lewis028

[simonhall6]

7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Anyone got the Harmonie Charts as that seems to have nailed both Sunday Night into Mondays Snow and indeed Last Night into Todays area as well.

ICON further North on its 06z

In terms of Models so Far

ICON 50/50

ECM 20/80

GFS 80/20 (But this Model is awful for neartime Mesoscale and copies and catches up to the High Res)

Would like to see Harmonie though if anyone has it

 

7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Anyone got the Harmonie Charts as that seems to have nailed both Sunday Night into Mondays Snow and indeed Last Night into Todays area as well.

ICON further North on its 06z

In terms of Models so Far

ICON 50/50

ECM 20/80

GFS 80/20 (But this Model is awful for neartime Mesoscale and copies and catches up to the High Res)

Would like to see Harmonie though if anyone has it

 

[Nick F]

7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Anyone got the Harmonie Charts as that seems to have nailed both Sunday Night into Mondays Snow and indeed Last Night into Todays area as well.

Looks good ...

[Methuselah]

A decidedly cooler 2C this morning; it's also much drier, as the dp is lower... But, as is nearly always the case, whenever atmospheric conditions become more favourable, nothing falls from the clouds!

[Paul Sherman]

Thanks Guys for the Charts thats cheered me up a bit.

And yes nice to see the Dewpoints and drier air getting in place already with Dps widely at 0c or negative since last night

[Nick F]

I think the low arriving later tomorrow / early Thursday could be the only opportunity for most of us in the SE at least to see snow this week, as it looks like snow opportunities will be confined to northern, central and western areas like today. Unless something pops up unexpected. So finger crosses this low doesn't end up like 03z UKV track!