South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Matty J]

Do any of our more experienced members have any stats to say which of the UKV/Arpege/Euro4/ ECM etc perform better in these situations?

I’d love the ECM to be right but it does seem to over do snow totals massively and often we end with zilch

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Matty J said:

Do any of our more experienced members have any stats to say which of the UKV/Arpege/Euro4/ ECM etc perform better in these situations?

I’d love the ECM to be right but it does seem to over do snow totals massively and often we end with zilch

ECM / Harmonie. is where my money always goes which was the Hirlam model.

Ignore Euro 4 & aperge. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Steve Murr

[Jason T]

2c, 

Dp 2, however just started to rain a little.. Not sure if sleety mix..tricky to tell at the moment. 

[Tom Jarvis]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

These are behind a paywall

not one for Maidstone

London city

Steve could my spot be a good location. Or am I too far south? 

[Snow Queen one]

Ty Steve.  Is this the year for me?  I so hope your chart comes off as I am always too far east.  

[Mark wheeler]

I can’t find the Uk/ SE view for  the harmonie on meteociel perhaps I’m being dense , can anyone help please ? 

[loafer]

8 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I can’t find the Uk/ SE view for  the harmonie on meteociel perhaps I’m being dense , can anyone help please ? 

Try this;

weather model knmi - harmonie-arome model - england - rain/snowfall [base + 48] | weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

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Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology...

As it is a short term model, the interesting period is not yet in range.

[Mark wheeler]

3 minutes ago, loafer said:

Try this;

weather model knmi - harmonie-arome model - england - rain/snowfall [base + 48] | weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

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Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology...

As it is a short term model, the interesting period is not yet in range.

Cool yep , That does the trick Thanks , Now saved to my Home Screen . I was aware it wasn’t in range but wanted to be ready when it is . Thanks for your help

[Wivenswold]

I really don't think any model will give you the certainty you crave from the best suite. 

This is an unusual set-up, we don't know which model had the best handle on it. I've even known GFS to come through, it called the December 2009 snow from +384 out while the supposedly better suites (including the Met Office) kind of fell in line at only a week out. 

 

[Kentspur]

34 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM / Harmonie. is where my money always goes which was the Hirlam model.

Ignore Euro 4 & aperge. 

I hope you're right Steve during the failed 4th Dec snow for our part of Kent Harmonie was very poor wildly overestimating snow accumulations it was all rain here

[lottiekent]

18 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

Ty Steve.  Is this the year for me?  I so hope your chart comes off as I am always too far east.  

Alexisj9 and I are both further east than you (Dover and Folkestone respectively). I don’t know about you two but I’m waiting for an easterly or north easterly. Then we’ll be in business!

Down to 2.2c with a DP of 1.8c now

[Number 23]

Well if that ECM output is to be believed some of us would be buried. Somewhat surprised to see that pop up to be honest, as I thought we'd be waiting until Jan for anything that impressive. 

Think I might be too far north when all's said and done, but fun to have a raffle ticket for now. 

Would be great for my nippers, who've been stuck indoors for most of their lives! 

[Kentspur]

First flakes of the season showing for Dartford on BERB app where ill be working  until Thursday night, strangely nothing for where I live- Gravesend/Northfleet borders

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kentspur

[Tom Jarvis]

Is there a link to find dew points for an weather station near an certain location? 

[Paul Sherman]

3 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Is there a link to find dew points for an weather station near an certain location? 

Try XCWeather

[Matty J]

43 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM / Harmonie. is where my money always goes which was the Hirlam model.

Ignore Euro 4 & aperge. 

Excellent thanks Steve

I did wonder where the Hirlam went! Lets hope it’s on the money and we finally get what we crave  

[lottiekent]

15 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Is there a link to find dew points for an weather station near an certain location? 

On Wunderground, this is one of the closest stations I could find to where your profile says you’re located...there’s some more down to the west of you too. Just move round the map and click on the stations to see the temps and few points:

Personal Weather Station Dashboard | Weather Underground

WWW.WUNDERGROUND.COM

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Weather Underground provides local & long-range weather forecasts, weather reports, maps & tropical weather conditions for locations worldwide.

 

[Alpine glow]

32 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Is there a link to find dew points for an weather station near an certain location? 

Does this help?  

Shoreham College Weather Data

WWW.SHOREHAMCOLLEGE.CO.UK

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Shoreham College Weather

Edit:  Not sure it does, I thought it might be the closest to you if that what you were after!

Edited December 28, 2020 by Alpine glow

[chionomaniac]

So icon looks ok for our region wed night.

[Eagle Eye]

Chance of a wintery shower or two tonight but unlikely. 

[Fatboypirate]

1.8°C and DP 1.1°C in Eastbourne if that helps anyone!

 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

if fantasy world right it could get interesting  later!!!

 

[chionomaniac]

15 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

So icon looks ok for our region wed night.

Can’t moan at gfs either

[Sarahgreatchart]

You know we will be confined to our houses in tier 5 when it all comes off. I though will have to go out for a walk in it. For cultural reasons!

[clark3r]

BBC regional forecast did not mention the s word once, makes me very nervous hope tomorrow’s charts don’t downgrade