South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[lottiekent]

Having a heavy shower at the moment, started as hail, now rain. Main point to note is, it is now coming from the east and the temp has dropped 2c down to 4c. 
 

Edit: also worth noting that this is looking like a streamer type set of showers now, which shows that these can pop up out of nowhere. Just need slightly colder temps..

Edited December 28, 2020 by lottiekent

[Harry's House]

First wintry precipitation of the winter period 2020/21 here and the 2nd day of it in the calendar year 2020. Sleet mixed with rain observed after 1600, so 2020 will no longer have the joint (with 2002) lowest number of days of sleet or snow for me personally. 

[Lampostwatcher]

Noticed some showers heading south from Peterbrough 

Holding together well 

Weds looks like our best chance of significant snowfall

[Eagle Eye]

Slowly turning will most likely bring sleet. 

[Tim Bland]

3 hours ago, Kentspur said:

I'm south of the M4 but I can see a blob of pink here in NW Kent on that ECM chart

Expecting the ECM to be too far north. I expect most of the south east would see snow. GEM is the perfect scenario... 

[Tim Bland]

Temp 1c DP 0.8c in St Evenage 110m ASL. Few showers dropping down now..

[Lampostwatcher]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Expecting the ECM to be too far north. I expect most of the south east would see snow. GEM is the perfect scenario... 

I'd bank that chart 

Wouldn't want it any further south

[Tim Bland]

Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

I'd bank that chart 

Wouldn't want it any further south

Any further north and it will be sleet or rain in the south of the region. Could be some IMBYism kreeping in soon as most in East Anglia will be hoping for a northerly shift. Let’s see what the ECM says later 

[Lampostwatcher]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Any further north and it will be sleet or rain in the south of the region. Could be some IMBYism kreeping in soon as most in East Anglia will be hoping for a northerly shift. Let’s see what the ECM says later 

Yes I agree 

Hopefully north enough to effect your region stevenage 

 

Have you got the gfs chart for comparison 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Temp 1c DP 0.8c in St Evenage 110m ASL. Few showers dropping down now..

Some high res shows a few showers going through the region 

 

Weather station now saying DP of 0.9c and temp of 1.8c so we are getting closer to the magic mark.. 

Anything before end of week I think is a bonus given we are in marginal temps still.. 

EDIT: I assume the train of showers over Kent is associated with a front tied into the small secondary low feature leaving the south coast now. They will slowly be pulled more south. 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Surrey

[Tim Bland]

Ideally (for most of the region) we want the entry point to be mid- north Wales (currently at t48) Harmonie is perfect, most other high res further south. If it’s too far south it could miss all of the region.

[Tim Bland]

13 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Yes I agree 

Hopefully north enough to effect your region stevenage 

 

Have you got the gfs chart for comparison 

GFS is too far south. Perhaps skiming coastal areas,  but not showing any accumulation. I wouldn’t concentrate on GFS i’d look at high res such as Euro4, Harlam and Harmonie etc. those will be in range forecast the event tomorrow eve. ECM / Icon slightly better at handling near term precip placement, so worth checking those later 

[snowrye]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

GFS is too far south. Perhaps skiming coastal areas,  but not showing any accumulation. I wouldn’t concentrate on GFS i’d look at high res such as Euro4, Harlam and Harmonie etc. those will be in range forecast the event tomorrow eve. ECM / Icon slightly better at handling near term precip placement, so worth checking those later 

Don't these features have a habit of shifting south though

[Wivenswold]

Having wanted several of these to move South over the years, I'd say that they simply have "a habit of shifting" at this timescale, not that they trend South. 

Anyway, it's a Nowcast situation until the cold is established. Charts at 48hrs can be misleading at the moment. 

 

[Tim Bland]

Precip charts not available yet but looking good !!!

[lottiekent]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Precip charts not available yet but looking good !!!

This is the ideal position for the low to bring snow to the widest area of the SE isn’t it?

[Lampostwatcher]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Precip charts not available yet but looking good !!!

Yep I'd bank that  

And put my money in a ica account

[TSNWK]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Precip charts not available yet but looking good !!!

In the mod  thread the low is pretty much still there 24 hours later.. -5 uppers and dam of 525 looks positive.. do we have any views on dp and tm2 temperature..

[Floatylight]

48 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Expecting the ECM to be too far north. I expect most of the south east would see snow. GEM is the perfect scenario... 

Whats the date of that chart please  x

[snowking]

The ECM run coming out is a bit of a dream scenario for most of this region for Wednesday’s snow event with the low getting trapped and a wrap-around of the front back across the region into Thursday.

Very unlikely to happen exactly as modelled currently, but we can always hope 

[john mac1]

Get you’re sledges ready if the ECM is to be believed and this is only at days 2to4. London & SE are in the game. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by john mac1

[Speedbird]

8 minutes ago, john mac1 said:

Get you’re sledges ready of the ECM is to be believed and this is only at days 2to4. London & SE are in the game. 

That would produce substantial snow for a lot of the south east.

Beautiful . . .

Edited December 28, 2020 by Speedbird
Graphic added

[East Kent Snow Desert]

And time for a slight 50 mile adjustment south to be spot on. Fingers crossed!

[clark3r]

10 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

That would produce substantial snow for a lot of the south east.

Beautiful . . .

Happy new year in style, COVID lock down, brexit, proper snowed in don’t think this will happen though - fingers crossed

[Lampostwatcher]

Praying ECM is on the money with this weds low