South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[SLEETY]

If we havent had at least one decent snowfall in the SE looking at the upcoming synoptics ,then IM doing a SM and throwing in the towel for the rest of the season.

The model thread keeps saying uppers not low enough,well I keep reminding them about dec 81 as a kid watching the blizzards outside with uppers of around minus 3,they never fell lower than minus 5 here,if you check the archives, but still loads of snow with people trapped in snow drifts over the North and South Downs.

Edited December 21, 2020 by SLEETY

[Tom Quintavalle]

57 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

If we havent had at least one decent snowfall in the SE looking at the upcoming synoptics ,then IM doing a SM and throwing in the towel for the rest of the season.

The model thread keeps saying uppers not low enough,well I keep reminding them about dec 81 as a kid watching the blizzards outside with uppers of around minus 3,they never fell lower than minus 5 here,if you check the archives, but still loads of snow with people trapped in snow drifts over the North and South Downs.

Hi Sleety, 

Totally agree with you. Like yourself, I experienced the very cold and wintry, December 1981 but I was quite a bit older than you, at 26.

You're absolutely right in your assertion, that it never got especially cold in the S.E. Region.

Central areas of the U.K., under deep snow cover, had some bitterly cold Nights. Shawbury in Shropshire, for example.

Some milder air, kept pecking away at the edges of the U.K.

Central/Northern areas, were in the freezer, from around the night of the 8th, up until Christmas.

Christmas Day 1981 is often mistaken, as a White Christmas.

Sure there was fair bit of Snow on the ground (around 4 inches, where I lived in Bromley, Kent) but this had fallen on Christmas Eve, as this little fella, tracked up the Channel:

Again, not especially cold 850 (uppers) temps, there.

No new Snow fell on Christmas Day and the very Wintry spell ended, a few Days later.

On the subject of December 1981, I was struck how some of the post- Christmas output, is reminding me of the synoptics, at the start of that very wintry spell. Below is the archived chart for 00z 8th December, 1981:

IMO, still the best Rain > Snow event, I've witnessed.

I was living in Camberwell, S.E. London, at the time. Heavy Rain at Breakfast, soon turned to heavy, driving Snow. By the time the Snow had stopped, there was a couple of inches of wet, slushy Snow.  A very respectable fall, for an Inner London Borough.

Just a quick word from Sammy and Samantha Snowmen.

They've managed to sneak out of the Country and travel to Lapland, Today.

Sammy will be presenting his 7th Blog in -  COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN, from the couple's Bedroom, in their Ice Palace Hotel, after the overnight 00z Model Runs, Tomorrow Morning  :

Which is located, In the Ski Resort of Levi:

Sammy just wanted to comment on the fact that Today's G.F.S 00z Model Run, was still flirting with the idea of some Wintry Showers, running into Norfolk, in the early hours of Christmas Day:

Sammy Snowman -  - will be back Tomorrow Morning, with that 7th Blog.

Regards,

Tom.     

Edited December 21, 2020 by TomSE12

[Eagle Eye]

7 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi Sleety, 

Totally agree with you. Like yourself, I experienced the very cold and wintry, December 1981 but I was quite a bit older than you, at 26.

You're absolutely right in your assertion, that it never got especially cold in the S.E. Region.

Central areas of the U.K., under deep snow cover, had some bitterly cold Nights. Shawbury in Shropshire, for example.

Some milder air, kept pecking away at the edges of the U.K.

Central/Northern areas, were in the freezer, from around the night of the 8th, up until Christmas.

Christmas Day 1981 is often mistaken, as a White Christmas.

Sure there was fair bit of Snow on the ground (around 4 inches, where I lived in Bromley, Kent) but this had fallen on Christmas Eve, as this little fella, tracked up the Channel:

Again, not especially cold 850 (uppers) temps, there.

No new Snow fell on Christmas Day and the very Wintry spell ended, a few Days later.

On the subject of December 1981, I was struck how some of the post- Christmas output, is reminding me of the synoptics, at the start of that very wintry spell. Below is the archived chart for 00z 8th December, 1981:

IMO, still the best Rain > Snow event, I've witnessed.

I was living in Camberwell, S.E. London, at the time. Heavy Rain at Breakfast, soon turned to heavy, driving Snow. By the time the Snow had stopped, there was a couple of inches of wet, slushy Snow.  A very respectable fall, for an Inner London Borough.

Just a quick word from Sammy and Samantha Snowmen.

They've managed to sneak out of the Country and travel to Lapland, Today.

Sammy will be presenting his 7th Blog in -  COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN, from the couple's Bedroom, in their Ice Palace Hotel, after the overnight 00z Model Runs, Tomorrow Morning  :

Which is located, In the Ski Resort of Levi:

Sammy just wanted to comment on the fact that Today's G.F.S 00z Model Run, was still flirting with the idea of some Wintry Showers, running into Norfolk, in the early hours of Christmas Day:

Sammy Snowman -  - will be back Tomorrow Morning, with that 7th Blog.

Regards,

Tom.     

Certainly A Chnace Of Snow On Christmas Day.

[Kentspur]

Always good to see the apps start to add a wintry flavour to the forecasts 

[MAF]

3 hours ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Thanks for thinking I think it's a joke now I'll just go out and Partly like it's 1999.

apologies, no disrespect intended. i will amend my thoughts to 'why do a very few  of the younger generation think its a joke'

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, MAF said:

apologies, no disrespect intended. i will amend my thoughts to 'why do a very few  of the younger generation think its a joke'

I Know Many People Who Are Happily Doing What They Want Apologies For My Earlier Comment It Seems Averybodt Blames Me. 

[Laurence Hill]

@Steve Murr really look forward to your input, but wish you hadn’t mentioned the “marginal cold” on the other side.  Now we’ve got all the spoilsports/trolls/stirrers jumping on your observation and now it’s the end of winter.

could you please sort them out - I know you can do it!

P.S. welcome back

[Kentspur]

56% chance now for London so probably higher North/East of here? Xmas eve were surely in with half a chance of atleast some wintry showers now?

[snowrye]

I see there's much excitement in the mad thread, could be entertaining when thing's start going belly up, I genuinely hope they don't, I'd like nothing more than seeing chunky flakes cascading down for day's and day's, but the garden path is there, and I still have nightmares over that ecm, lol. Fingers crossed for a seasonal outlook, and lot's of the white stuff.

[Eagle Eye]

Snow Chance For. Christmas Eve

Christmas Day Will Be Further Runs.

[Eagle Eye]

GFS CONTROL!!!! 

 

[claret047]

Having read the Model thread I am not sure if I am down on my uppers or up on my downers!

[Polaris]

Evening all, 

Caught the BBC evening forecast with Louise Lear. 
 

‘Quieter couple days for Christmas Eve &?Christmas Day, before more wind a rain on Boxing Day” 

At least, me an my old man can smoke our Christmas Day cigar without pouring rain

[snowblizzard]

7 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Evening all, 

Caught the BBC evening forecast with Louise Lear. 
 

‘Quieter couple days for Christmas Eve &?Christmas Day, before more wind a rain on Boxing Day” 

At least, me an my old man can smoke our Christmas Day cigar without pouring rain

She also said remaining cold next week and things could get interesting!

[Polaris]

1 minute ago, snowblizzard said:

She also said remaining cold next week and things could get interesting!

Ah ok, sounds good for hills in the north then. 
 

Still pouring down here, ground saturated here already and more water continues to fall. 

[Tom Quintavalle]

54 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

She also said remaining cold next week and things could get interesting!

MeteoGroup have pretty much put a lid on any  chance of a few flurries of Snow over our Region, on Christmas Day, by building in High Pressure. 

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

But as that High Pressure moves out into the Atlantic after Christmas, this allows Low Pressure to move down into the North Sea, and with it some Arctic sourced air, moves across the U.K.

Then we get that little tease, from Louise.

Regards,

Tom. 

[snowblizzard]

40 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

MeteoGroup have pretty much put a lid on any  chance of a few flurries of Snow over our Region, on Christmas Day, by building in High Pressure. 

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

But as that High Pressure moves out into the Atlantic after Christmas, this allows Low Pressure to move down into the North Sea, and with it some Arctic sourced air, moves across the U.K.

Then we get that little tease, from Louise.

Regards,

Tom. 

Yes, I was quite surprised by that final chart!

[Polaris]

Chucking it down here and very mild. 
 

The ground is taking a battering, already flooded and bogged throughout. 
 

If no snow & cold, then roll on a Dry, Hot Summer 2021 

[Blessed Weather]

Come on. put your hand up you lucky person..... who's house is that with snow on the roof on Christmas Day?

Actually, a few of us might see some flakes falling as the showers coming down the North Sea move a little inland, as per the Netwx model forecast:

Unfortunately the bigger talking point over the rest of this week is likely to be the amount of rainfall. GFS suggesting up to 75mm (3 inches) of rain between today and Mon 28th:

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Well it's a very mild Morning here, in S.E. London.

Sammy Snowman would now like to present his 7th Blog of - COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN.

We are now entering Christmas Day, at t72.

Sammy -  and Girlfriend, Samantha - 

have just spent their 2nd Night "cosied up" in the Bedroom, of their Ice Hotel in Levi, Lapland -

 - 

Sammy will illustrate his findings, with some charts from the 00z Model runs.

ECM 500 hPa 00z (t72) 25th December         GFS 500 hPa 00z (t72) 25th December

                

UKMO 500 hPa 00z (t72) 25th December

   

As would be expected by now, all 3 Models have firmed up on the likely Synoptics, for Christmas Day.

A large area of High Pressure lies just to the W.S.W. of the U.K., throwing a Ridge up to the Northern part of the Norwegian Sea. This meets another Ridge, close to Northern Scandinavia and emanating from an area of High Pressure, over the Arctic Ocean.

Another area of High Pressure is centred close to the S.E. tip of Newfoundland.

An area of Low Pressure is located, on the S.E. Coast of Greenland. Another shallow area of Low Pressure, is centred close to Belarus.

ECM 850 hPa 00z (t72) 25th December         GFS 850 hPa 00z (t72) 25th December

                

Upper Air temperatures are around -6c/-7c, for the whole of the S.E. Region.  

 GFS Temps. 00z (t72) 25th December     GFS Ppn Type 00z (t72) 25th December

            

Temperatures are between 0c (West) and 5c (East), for the S.E. Region.

G.F.S still suggesting, that the odd Wintry flurry is possible for Eastern Coastal areas of the S.E. Region, during Christmas Morning, before petering out by the Afternoon.

 GFS 850 hPa Stream lines 00z (t72) 25th December 

               

 

A lightish NNW/NNE flow covers the S,E Region, although it's quite brisk in the extreme East of the Region.

In a short while, I will post up the comments of Sammy Snowman, on the 00z Model runs.

Regards,

Tom.  

[Tom Quintavalle]

Given his findings in the previous Post, Sammy is in the following State of Emotion:

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.

                                 

Sammy is feeling pretty nonchalant about prospects for a White Christmas, in the S.E. Region.

But of course he can afford to be, with deep Snow cover and temperatures around -10c (14f), where himself and Samantha are holed up!!

 GFS Total Snow Depth 00z (t72) 25th December      GFS Total Snow Depth 00z (t72) 25th December

                                        

It's still possible for the extreme East of our Region, to see a few flakes of Snow on Christmas Day.

I see one Bookmaker is offering Odds, on 3 locations in the S.E. Region:

London, (Heathrow Airport) - NO (1/11), YES (13/2).

Norwich (Airport) - NO (8/15), YES (6/4).

Houses of Parliament - NO (1/8), YES (5/1).

Hardly inspiring, are they? The Odds for Norwich are shortening.

But surely, there's way too much hot air coming out of the 3rd location at the moment, to allow any Snow to fall on it!!

Sammy will present his 8th and final Blog of - COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN, on Christmas Eve Morning, We will then be down to t24, on all the 00z Forecast Model runs.

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited December 22, 2020 by TomSE12

[Eagle Eye]

Still Snow on the GFS!!!! 

 

[Blazerblue]

Oh goody, met office yellow warning for......rain. From tomorrow morning til Thursday morning. Just what we all need, is more rain

[MAF]

well if nothing else, predicted drop in temperature of around 8C from Wednesday to Thursday/Friday means it will feel pretty cold all of a sudden. add a frost to that and for the 3rd week of December it's not all bad. As i say to my wife who has just had a total knee replacement 2 weeks ago .... little steps  

Edited December 22, 2020 by MAF

[snowblind]

Someone on the model thread earlier mentioned that they thought this winter might pan out like 1978/79 or 1984/85.

I remember 1984/85 very well with 2 particularly severe spells with ice days and plenty of snow, one in Jan and one in Feb. Now I don't remember 1978/79 so well as I was 9 (it wasn't until the 81/82 winter that I became a real weather geek and started keeping daily records, which sadly got lost when I left home) but I do have memories of lots of snow and freezing temperatures around that time and I was always under the impression the 78/79 was the more severe winter, but looking at this there isn't a massive difference.

Epping Weather Site daily records for year 1979

WWW.SWANSTONWEATHER.CO.UK

 

Epping Weather Site daily records for year 1985

WWW.SWANSTONWEATHER.CO.UK

These are daily records from a site about 15 miles away from where I was living at the time.

The Januaries from these 2 years are almost identical but February is slightly more severe in 1979 with lower mean temps but there is a longer sub-zero spell in Feb 1985.

The winter of 1978/79 always seems to get the headlines but down in the south seemed to be on a par with 1984/85. I guess it was more severe further north but looked like more of a freeze/thaw cycle down here.

Anyone have a good memory of the 1978/79 winter?

Edited December 22, 2020 by snowblind
Add more info