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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bromley, SE London (60m ASL)
  • Location: Bromley, SE London (60m ASL)

    Great GFS charts there, we know they will probably be wrong but shows the potential, seeing as it’s hard to grasp these sorts of events

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Brighton
    9 hours ago, lassie23 said:

     

    Thanks for your kind words. something we all go through but I think i'm in shock at the moment, don't even know what day it is

    Lassie, i'm sorry to read this.  Grief is such a painful process in life & I hope that yours eases gently in time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton
    6 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

    Yep, everyone in the SE and EA are at the least in the game during this period. And we all know once showers and streamers set up, it can turn into something no one saw coming.

     

    prectypeuktopo.png

    prectypeuktopo (1).png

    prectypeuktopo (2).png

    prectypeuktopo (3).png

    My birthday on 05th that would be the perfect birthday present, models don’t let me down please 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞

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    Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn
    2 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

    Bold

    Screenshot_20210102_161614_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Very 

    Had snow symbols countless times for my location past 8 days = NOTHING 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 minute ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

    Bold

    Screenshot_20210102_161614_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Goodness Sheldon you consider a sleet shower bold. 😄 

    Condition now across SE are generally supportive for wintriness with nocturnal cooling and sufficient dew points.

    A2E902EC-F617-4AC9-8ED7-CB31288007A9.thumb.png.3028a2bfb249b5adb9b910186d8e7bd0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    Just now, Polaris said:

    Very 

    Had snow symbols countless times for my location past 8 days = NOTHING 

    We all know it'll happen I'll be happy for 1 flake in Rain To Be Honest

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Eastbourne East Sussex
    1 hour ago, jasonuk said:

    sadly, confirmed! even with slight elevation. Its not a surprise but i cant stop hoping 😕 
    Maybe later on.......

    I hope so. Fingers crossed. Not looking to good for us though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
    30 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    Hmmm, does the radar say it's raining?

    If so could be evaporative cooling, just not sure if there's anything heavier to reach the ground.

    it did. but it was light blue and a bit darker, then it broke up as it reached here 😞

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Goodness Sheldon you consider a sleet shower bold. 😄 

    Condition now across SE are generally supportive for wintriness with nocturnal cooling and sufficient dew points.

    A2E902EC-F617-4AC9-8ED7-CB31288007A9.thumb.png.3028a2bfb249b5adb9b910186d8e7bd0.png

    It's Woodchurch here we have the famous Susan's Hill Block that collects all the Snow and doesn't Allow us any. 

    Plus nothing on thier Radar

    Screenshot_20210102_162553_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Edited by Sheldon Cooper
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    Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn

    With Dew points gradually decreasing and temps starting to fall especially  in north of region = and so the ppn over the NE heads Sw into West Midlands once again. 
     

    Looking dry and chilly for our neck of woods tonight. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn
    4 minutes ago, Dami said:

    it did. but it was light blue and a bit darker, then it broke up as it reached here 😞

    Hi Dami, you didn’t miss anything.

    Plain old Rain in Woburn 

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    So, I thought I might post a very long message about how things this winter are going. I am no expert, never claimed to have been.
    So far this winter we have seen snow/frost/ice/hail and whatever else the weather has bought us in this region. 
    Yet the winters of past seem to elude us. I am 58 years old and can recall just a few good winters in that time. So, it leads me to think that winter is a thing that happens better in a region more susceptible to the conditions. But what it also leads me to think is that the climate is playing a huge part in all of this. 


    Are we craving something that will not happen?


    I love all the seasons. Love snow, cold, frost, ice, yet it never seems to appear anymore. 


    Why not????


    The constant search for the ‘holy grail’ these past  5- 10  days in the models just seems ridiculous to me. And that is just my opinion.

    In three days’ time the current forecast is for most of our area is  just for average temperatures and dry. And that is according to all models and experts. yes there may be ppn, but hardly what i would call 'wintery'.
    So, maybe, it’s a case of looking what might happen in ten days’ time without the rose-tinted glasses and accepting it will ‘be what it will be’.
    Lets face it. Winter is not what it was 30 years ago. Not what it was 20 years ago. There must be a reason for that. I don’t know the answer, but I can guess it’s not to do with anything other than climate change. 
    Sorry for the long read. I just cannot understand why some people are looking for something that will not happen.

    Let's see what happens to the forecast in the next three days and then be happy/sad with the prediction. After all; no one on this planet can change the weather. 😄 😄  
     

    Edited by MAF
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    The 'hype' is getting unbearable in the mod thread lead by a few continuous posters, still getting words such as 'upgrade' and 'remarkable'...but the Northern Hemispherical pattern doesn't look that much different from just after Xmas (on current 12z's at 144z+) and backed up by marginal uppers particularly down south. None of this 'cold, getting colder in the New Year' that I've heard numerously a week ago, which isn't happening.

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Brighton
    36 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

    Your phone never has charge😂

    The first thing I look at every time I look at Steve Murrs screenshots - is the battery still red 😄 Never failed to deliver.. unlike our snow.

    Where's our snow Godammit! 😈

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
    5 minutes ago, Polaris said:

    Hi Dami, you didn’t miss anything.

    Plain old Rain in Woburn 

    boo.

    @Froze were the Days i can only imagine. Post for likes etc. tis the season.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    1 minute ago, Alpine glow said:

    The first thing I look at every time I look at Steve Murrs screenshots - is the battery still red 😄 Never failed to deliver.. unlike our snow.

    Where's our snow Godammit! 😈

    I noticed the last few days he never has charge! How funny🤣 
     

    it’s coming hold tight 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire

    So as I suspected the models were gradually pushing the precipitation potential back and back and we've been unlucky so far in EA and the SE! However... there is promise on the horizon, an easterly or North Easterly is a step in the right direction and it will most certainly be cold enough in the coming days for the showers to be wintry (not just of rain). Relief. The potential will be there for some heavy snow showers.

    Interesting watching on the GFS 12z too... it's been mentioned recently that the jet is still showing no signs of a comeback in the Atlantic and the charts have been finding that hard to grasp, in essence - IMO - it means there is more chance of the charts flipping back to cold (as the 12z is doing)... so more twists and turns to come! Good times for model watchers. 

    Edited by Matty88
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    Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn
    2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    The 'hype' is getting unbearable in the mod thread lead by a few continuous posters, still getting words such as 'upgrade' and 'remarkable'...but the Northern Hemispherical pattern doesn't look that much different from just after Xmas and backed up by marginal uppers particularly down south.

    Pure entertainment 

    I remember 11 days ago the BOOM charts on the MOD threat for here with comparisons to 2010 

    Here I am sitting here with rain just passed an hour ago -  and not a flake yet! 
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Orpington Kent maxed at 4.3 at 1:40 stayed the same until 3.30 since when it has dropped to 2.5 in 80 minutes..

    hoping the water in plant pots refreeze this evening again.. was a inch thick New Year’s Eve.

    Edited by TSNWK
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    1 minute ago, Polaris said:

    Pure entertainment 

    I remember 11 days ago the BOOM charts on the MOD threat for here with comparisons to 2010 

    Here I am sitting here with rain just passed an hour ago -  and not a flake yet! 
     

    Join the club!...doesn't look very promising next week either for this region, and those who see snow I doubt it will settle. I'm not expecting anything as just checked the Dew Point here and it is at a mighty 3.3c.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Yes as Steve says an Upgrade in the short term from GooFuS for the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe before we lose the Easterly Influence completely so its only a 60 hour window really. But GFS is now showing snow showers across more of the region which is the first upgrade as far as I can see with Arpege, Harmonie, Icon and ECM still not having any of it.

    Will update later after all the 12z'S are in

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    This Season so far has been one to forget like 2019, or has it with Months Left we still have many opportunity's and 2018 seemed like one to Forget Until February we've had 1 Widespread Snow Day which gave a Fine Powdery Snow which brought Massive Snowball Fights with 1 Per Person and still Sleet isn't the Worst thing in Winter that I Can Think Of

    2020 was a let down Yes but it brought us New Insights, New Areas that have been Moaning before, Our Region is in a stalling phase where nothing much happens however 2021 has Started up with Chances bigger than Most Of December 2020 and still we've had many good Days, don't forget 2020 after all it brought things in Weird Shapes And Sizes, Cloud Formations I've Never Seen Before like this. 

    IMG_20201217_082905.thumb.jpg.91722c56b93da66276c643c2d9b97067.jpg

    Unlikely for us has the same likelyness of being Lucky and we will get Lucky sometime otherwise we will be Unlucky about our Luckiness because that Luckiness has the Same Chance or so of happening which Certainly creates a Certain Uncertainty daily of our Uncertain Snow Chance of that we can be... 

    Quite Sure

    Days like Today we looked Forward to Tommorrow However we've been Pleasently Surprised and are looking Forward to the Hyped Days which are getting Closer and Closer and could bring an Easternly Shift with a Southernly Squash to our Weather and that could bring the Cold that Helped Make Regular Snow Showers in the West Midlands sort of area so fear not. 

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