South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[seaside 60]

6 minutes ago, Southender said:

I think it’s -1c here mate. The 0.4c is probably Shoeburyness just down the road right on the coast.

Pretty amazing seeing as we on coast.

Nothing better than waking up to sun and frost and temps around freezing all day.

[Eagle Eye]

When You Search Charts with google lens. 

 

[dubmuffin]

Reassuring to see that everyone else is reporting an ice day today. My newly restored weather station hasn't gone above -0.5c. I've been out paddleboarding and can report is damn chilly and rather grey.

Just refreshed and got 0.6c so not quite an ice day after all

Edited December 31, 2020 by dubmuffin

[Eagle Eye]

My local big hill froze up apparantly. 

[Trom]

1 hour ago, Sparky68 said:

Parts of America still getting a pasting , not jealous at all!!!!!

 

 

I spend a large amount of time, due to work, in LaCrosse Winsconsin (next to Minnesota).  It gets to -30c to -40c in the heart of winter.  It's too cold to be outside and quite dangerous.  So there is such a thing as too cold!  The Mississippi freezes over and you can go ice fishing in your car.

[lottiekent]

Maximum of 2.8c right on the south east coast. Dropped nicely over the last hour and now back to 0.0c.

Even with the above freezing temp, it must have stayed below freezing in the shade as the frost stayed on the unmoved cars all day.

Can just make out fog starting to form

on the hills in the photo..

[LightningLover]

High today of around 3c here in Bexhill, lovely crisp winters day with deep blue skies. Small pockets of water have frozen over and patches of frost have lingered in the shade. Very nice!

[Eagle Eye]

Winter is here closest field is practically freezing up. 

Meanwhile Ground is solid. 

[Jackski4]

Uppers looking so much better on GFS, still amazing on UKMO. Puts us in the SE right back in the mix for snow next week. Look fffreeezing. Let’s hope ecm follows - even if it doesn’t then it’s still the odd one out! I’d back UKMO especially at such close range now into the reliable IMO.

[Southender]

Think we have just about managed to squeeze an ice day here in Southend. Very rare indeed! So somewhat colder than the forecast 3c. Keep them coming. Hopefully clear skies for us all tonight. How low can we all go?.... Should be the coldest night so far tonight.

[Kentspur]

I must be one of the few locations away from the South Coast without an ice day unless temps have gone up in the last couple of hours here in tropical Thames View Gravesend/Northfleet had a high just shy of 2c which was roughly the forecast temperature after a low of minus 0.5c apparently (thought it was colder than that) when I got in from my night shift this morning my car actually froze on the inside when I was at work in Dartford was lovely and white outside though.

 

Good to see the snowflake symbol reappear on some apps for the 2nd week of Jan but won't hold much hope just yet

[Eagle Eye]

This coming our way? 

[Paul Sherman]

Its time for the Daily Update on Snow Chances from the Easterly Quadrant Mon to Wed next week and we can now Include Tuesday into the 5 Day Models. Using ICON, Arpege, ECM (00z) GFS and UKMO at the moment.

Monday Snow Risk = 0% So this stays the same as yesterday

Tuesday Snow Risk = 20% 

Will update same time tomorrow

[Jackski4]

5 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

This coming our way? 

Seen stranger things happen but looks pretty decayed and light to me. Will probably become a lot more patchy and fizzle out as it heads south. Who knows.

[lottiekent]

7 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

This coming our way? 

Bit too far away with that intensity. I wouldn’t worry about any showers for now, just need to continue with the cold day and night temps to bring the surface temp down and hope that the forecast continues to improve for next week. Then when/if snow does fall, it has a greater chance of sticking for more than a few transient hours. 

Edited December 31, 2020 by lottiekent
Spelling

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Its time for the Daily Update on Snow Chances from the Easterly Quadrant Mon to Wed next week and we can now Include Tuesday into the 5 Day Models. Using ICON, Arpege, ECM (00z) GFS and UKMO at the moment.

Monday Snow Risk = 0% So this stays the same as yesterday

Tuesday Snow Risk = 20% 

Will update same time tomorrow

The fact the Met mention possibility of wintry to lower levels atleast gives us a little bit of hope, I like this update tbh keeps us in the game if anything else

[Paul Sherman]

Yes the 20% is from the UKMO for Tuesday funnily enough - The other Models are having none of it though atm

[Gowon]

The charts are looking good for our chances of seeing some snowfall next week

 

 

[Snipper]

Don’t trust a lot of these temperature readings. Still haven’t got two thermometers that read the same. If there ain’t ice on the bird bath it ain’t freezing. 

[Gowon]

We might get lucky and see some before next week.

Arpege has some snow in our region Saturday and Sunday.

Icon in the early hours of Sunday.

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Don’t trust a lot of these temperature readings. Still haven’t got two thermometers that read the same. If there ain’t ice on the bird bath it ain’t freezing. 

How about ice in an old toy truck? 

[MAF]

4 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

The small low that went under the Atlantic high, and set up this cold period was detected by all models later than t72. So it's not a fluid number. In fact I was rather surprised at this time of year, how solid the GFS with that. Of course now we have an FL that is more like 48, as models do struggle with patterns that don't include the normal Atlantic west to east pattern. No point in looking much further.

As i said earlier, i fully understand the models, what i don't understand is why people bet their precious things on what goes past 48 -72 hours :doh: 

the crux of my original post was to emphasise to the less educated model readers that looking into FI is fruitless  

[Eagle Eye]

41 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Seen stranger things happen but looks pretty decayed and light to me. Will probably become a lot more patchy and fizzle out as it heads south. Who knows.

Has to be extremely Slow Moving and get Tommorrow's Convection and then suddenly spped up. 

[Paul Sherman]

Big ECM coming up in an hours time - If it starts to follow the UKMO then we might be in with a squeak, GooFuS should follow along 24-36 hours later

[MAF]

goofus