South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[alexisj9]

53 minutes ago, MAF said:

and hence the reason i do not understand why people look at FI. look back on my post as me being 'devils advocate' if you like. as i am fully aware of things like accuracy and verification

The small low that went under the Atlantic high, and set up this cold period was detected by all models later than t72. So it's not a fluid number. In fact I was rather surprised at this time of year, how solid the GFS with that. Of course now we have an FL that is more like 48, as models do struggle with patterns that don't include the normal Atlantic west to east pattern. No point in looking much further.

[Speedbird]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

The small low that went under the Atlantic high, and set up this cold period was detected by all models later than t72. So it's not a fluid number. In fact I was rather surprised at this time of year, how solid the GFS with that. Of course now we have an FL that is more like 48, as models do struggle with patterns that don't include the normal Atlantic west to east pattern. No point in looking much further.

wise words - nobody should read too much beyond 2-3 days at the moment

[Biggin]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

yes.

I work in West Wickham now

Just trotting off from a shift > still -1 in the high street

Nice just up the road from me then.  You must pass through CH Village on your way home ? Night shift is a bummer, used to do them at M&S

[Eagle Eye]

41 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Got to say for me this cold spell is shaping to be the biggest let down ever, I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with no snow at all and it just steadily turns milder at the end. Nice to see frosts but there is nothing unusual about frosts. Happy new year hope our luck changes soon

Canadian Low ready to Punch through if that happens we will have a Stronger Southernly Flow which could bring that Scottish Snow along with it. 

[snowspotter]

Must confess surprised how cold it is today -1c on the car at 12noon . Here is my car dashboard photo

[snowspotter]

My view for what it’s worth is that the cold is only just starting and starting to build . It’s looking quite exciting as we head into the coldest month for the first time since about 1987 ! 

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Must confess surprised how cold it is today -1c on the car at 12noon . Here is my car dashboard photo

Still in the minus here in Dover where I am anyway, not sure about closer to the coast.

[Eagle Eye]

I feel like I'm 9-0 up looking at that Arctic Northernly

[Bazza118]

just some thoughts......

The geographical position of the UK has always meant that our weather is never as straight forward to forecast compared to even some of our closest neighbours (France, Belgium, Netherlands etc). Being an island, with even just a short expanse of water in the channel, means temperatures can vary by the smallest degrees but with the current set up that can be the difference between temperatures just above or below freezing.

The models have being picking up on the current cool/cold spell for some time now but as we know the devil is in the detail. The usual mild and wet southwesterlies with frequent depressions are more reliably forecast and tracked, but then the models have run these scenarios several thousands times and  have been refined  to increase the accuracy. The current set up, as we are all aware, does not occur that regularly in the UK and so all will struggle with the finer detail.

Today is probably a good example. Earlier in the week we were looking at a possible snow event taking place, this then turned to a "we might get a little dusting in places" and then in to just being cloudy and dry. The temperatures though have generally been a couple of degrees lower than expected, even in the 24hr window. The Met office forecast yesterday for Kenley (my nearest met office station), had it going doing to -1c overnight and then rising up slow to 4c around 2PM today before dropping down again to around 0c by midnight. The temperature actually dropped down to -3c and even now has only just made it up to -1c. The revised forecast high for today is now 1c at 2pm and -1c at midnight.

I, like many, would love to see some snow in our area, and i do think we will get it, but we will just have to be a little more patient. The models will go a long way to show us what is coming, but local climatic variations will ultimately decide what type of precepitation we do get and how much.

For now i can definately say that it feels like a cold day, and the ground is firming up quite nicely, where a week ago it was a muddy/slippery mess.

We wait now for the first sign of snowflakes and for this thread to light up and the images to flood in

[lassie23]

No snow here yet OFI holding firm

[Eagle Eye]

People forget that the UK is smaller than New Zealand there are nitty gritty details in where and a slight change and nobody in the Country get's the expected. 

[Paul Sherman]

Must admit very impressed with how cold it is today. Nowhere near the High the BBC were saying which was 2c for here

Currently at -1.2c with a -1c Dewpoint now that is very impressive for the Coast

[Nimbusman]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Must admit very impressed with how cold it is today. Nowhere near the High the BBC were saying which was 2c for here

Currently at -1.2c with a -1c Dewpoint now that is very impressive for the Coast

Agreed Paul, just got back from a run and frost everywhere in the shade hovering around 0°c here too. Some impressive freezing fog last night too. What’s your views on next week and the initial easterly, uppers too marginal for snow for us do you think ? 

[Paul Sherman]

2 minutes ago, Nimbusman said:

Agreed Paul, just got back from a run and frost everywhere in the shade hovering around 0°c here too. Some impressive freezing fog last night too. What’s your views on next week and the initial easterly, uppers too marginal for snow for us do you think ? 

Am really hoping some minor tweeks can occur with the Isobars so we can get synoptics that can produce more in the way of Snow for the Monday to Wedneday Period otherwise its a wasted easterly (eg theres no point in everything being perfect end of next week with -10c Uppers etc and the flow moving back around to North or North West) we really need the get the perfect timing to utilise this period of the cold spell. Am getting a bit worried from the 8th onwards that High Pressure is going to lose its influence and we start to see Low Pressure in the wrong places turn up. Am really hoping that timings are not going to s crew us up in the SE. 

If we start to see more models showing snow projected in the next 24-48 hours it will give us all some hope

[Daniel*]

Yep it is impressively cold today in SE, and Southend is up among there coldest in UK, Biggin Hill -2C a few lucky people set to see a rare ice day! 
 

Edited December 31, 2020 by Daniel*

[Matt H]

A few very small snow grains falling in the 0C air here in Cambridge, and in terms of snow around here that’s considered to be a blizzard these days.

Edited December 31, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Southender]

20 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Yep it is impressively cold today in SE, and Southend is up among there coldest in UK, Biggin Hill -2C a few lucky people set to see a rare ice day! 
 

Yes a very rare moment for us to be on the leaderboard for real time minima. Not quite sure how to be honest. -2c was the low and only creeped up a degree or so since. Bit of low cloud and mist and a light W/NW’ly helping to suppress temps I guess. Will we squeeze an ice day...

Edited December 31, 2020 by Southender

[Eagle Eye]

30 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Am really hoping some minor tweeks can occur with the Isobars so we can get synoptics that can produce more in the way of Snow for the Monday to Wedneday Period otherwise its a wasted easterly (eg theres no point in everything being perfect end of next week with -10c Uppers etc and the flow moving back around to North or North West) we really need the get the perfect timing to utilise this period of the cold spell. Am getting a bit worried from the 8th onwards that High Pressure is going to lose its influence and we start to see Low Pressure in the wrong places turn up. Am really hoping that timings are not going to s crew us up in the SE. 

If we start to see more models showing snow projected in the next 24-48 hours it will give us all some hope

Yes that certainly gives me hope and after that who knows, maybe Snowmaggedon if 2021 is a More lucky year. 

[slater]

This is actually my 2nd ice day this month, on the 7th recorded -0.8c due to freezing fog all day. So to record 2 ice days in December is very rare indeed, current -0.7c low cloud and haze. Like with everyone else just annoying we can’t see any snow on the horizon...

[Sparky68]

Parts of America still getting a pasting , not jealous at all!!!!!

 

 

[Nick F]

Temp slowly creeping up, but looks like it'll maybe an ice day here, still frost on back lawn here in Caterham on the hill.

Nearest official wx station at Kenley airfield -0.8C

Temps 2pm across the SE, Southend looks the coldest spot at -1.4C

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Nick F said:

Temp slowly creeping up, but looks like it'll maybe an ice day here, still frost on back lawn here in Caterham on the hill.

Nearest official wx station at Kenley airfield -0.8C

Temps 2pm across the SE, Southend looks the coldest spot at -1.4C

 

 

Went outside it was really warm but the Temps were in the Minuses or there abouts. 

[Southender]

37 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Temp slowly creeping up, but looks like it'll maybe an ice day here, still frost on back lawn here in Caterham on the hill.

Nearest official wx station at Kenley airfield -0.8C

Temps 2pm across the SE, Southend looks the coldest spot at -1.4C

 

 

I think it’s -1c here mate. The -0.4c is probably Shoeburyness just down the road right on the coast.

Edited December 31, 2020 by Southender

[moogyboobles]

So far a high of  -0.7 here in SWF today.
It's fresh out there. 

[Nick F]

5 minutes ago, Southender said:

I think it’s -1c here mate. The -0.4c is probably Shoeburyness just down the road right on the coast.

Actually updatedat 2pm to -0.4C, -1.4C was from 1pm