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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Crystal Palace, South London (300 feet asl)
  • Location: Crystal Palace, South London (300 feet asl)
    4 hours ago, andreas said:

    The first air frost in this part of Crystal Palace in the whole of 2020 - a minimum of -0.5. the lowest since February 2019. 

    I posted too soon, there was a subsequent dip to -0.8 (not very impressive admittedly, but that's from being on a slope towards the top of a hill) and now hovering around -0.6. 

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    Morning all, I hope you are all well, and your Families are Virus free. Well it's great to be alive on the occasion of my 65th Birthday. Tbh, it feels pretty scary.  It is also vir

    A very good frost here in London Docklands down to -2C it is still -0.4C now this is colder than anything last winter. Winter is here 🙂   

    Still some time for corrections northwards. Since when was ICON the most reliable model? Let’s see what all the others have to say especially ECM. ICON is looking very nice re an easterly setting up a

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    Posted
  • Location: Luton
  • Location: Luton
    40 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

    Hi Justin , it looks like warm air close to that occluded front would mean rain / sleet for most unfortunately , with any snow reserved for high ground 200 m or more. ( too marginal , hope im wrong )

    Booooo anyway plenty of chances into next week hopefully. Fingers crossed. However don’t remember a time with frosts consecutively for a whole week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Coldest night here since 3rd Feb 2019 here with a low of -1.4c so nice and white this morning just not the white we're hoping for but at least the ground temp is coming down. Couldn't agree more with Mr Sherman...this D10 thing is starting to become a bit of a bore now, either won't appear or get watered down.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
    15 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Coldest night here since 3rd Feb 2019 here with a low of -1.4c so nice and white this morning just not the white we're hoping for but at least the ground temp is coming down. Couldn't agree more with Mr Sherman...this D10 thing is starting to become a bit of a bore now, either won't appear or get watered down.

    Getting excited over FI charts is a hobby in itself, which is fine but I'd find it bloody exhausting in the end! 

    I dread to think how many new members have proudly informed friends and relatives of the impending armageddon recently. It's hard to pick out what is JFF initially. 

    "I have inside info"

    Two weeks later... 

    "Mate, I bought three sledges for the kids and it's 11 degrees out" 

    Been there, done that in years gone by!

    Edited by Number 23
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Coldest night in ages.. My weather station recorded - 4.1 in the valley.. It then warmed up in early hours to -2..

     

    Currently 10:50am and we are still at -1.1DP  -0.2 temp still negative!!!! 

    If we have clear skies tonight then it really will be cold... 

    This is exactly what we want guys... Dry cold weather before the snow sets in (if it does) it gives you a much much better chance at seeing settling snow and also helps nearer the coasts.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    i sort of get the excitement of seeing a potential weather occurrence be it cold/hot/storm in looking at models. what i don't get, or ever will, is the way that FI gets picked on when it fails to materialise, applauded when it does and abused by the way it can never be something realistic. 

    one day FI could be ten days away, the very next day FI could be 12 days away. I just wish there was a way of making FI a benchmark period which would be stuck to by everyone. maybe make it 5 days and no matter what shows after that, ignore it until its in the 5 day window of opportunity. 

    over many years i have seen people go from euphoria to wrist slashing at the turn of a model  🙅‍♂️  🙂 

    probably banged the drum on my thoughts of looking into FI way too many times  on these forums. sorry if you've heard it before 😄 

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    Just now, MAF said:

    i sort of get the excitement of seeing a potential weather occurrence be it cold/hot/storm in looking at models. what i don't get, or ever will, is the way that FI gets picked on when it fails to materialise, applauded when it does and abused by the way it can never be something realistic. 

    one day FI could be ten days away, the very next day FI could be 12 days away. I just wish there was a way of making FI a benchmark period which would be stuck to by everyone. maybe make it 5 days and no matter what shows after that, ignore it until its in the 5 day window of opportunity. 

    over many years i have seen people go from euphoria to wrist slashing at the turn of a model  🙅‍♂️  🙂 

    probably banged the drum on my thoughts of looking into FI way too many times  on these forums. sorry if you've heard it before 😄 

    The reason you can't set FI at a date is because each set of weather patterns and events are different from the next. 

    Take yesterday for example. One would argue that on the high res models FI was at 12hrs on Tuesday has nobody had a scoobie what was going to happen.. 

    If you have a bog standard massive high pressure over us in summer then you could argue that FI maybe 5 or even 7 days away because the pattern is so stuck you pretty much know what's going to happen. 

    The best best advice I can give anyone when rolling through the models each day is go up to 72hrs (high res some only go to 48hrs) and then stop. Anything beyond that may change and even in the 48hr period can change.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey

    For someone who has very poor heating in their house, I can confirm it was cold last night!!!!❄🥶🥶

    I can't help feeling disappointed when I saw the most confirmation for probable snow than I have done in years!! The models were all soooo good, even non-ramper members pointing out how good this all looked, Meto updates agreed, snow symbols on my Met forecast and then yellow warnings for snow and ice issued... I thought that JUST FOR ONCE, it might actually come through!!! I am aware we have further chances to come with the cold seeming rather embedded for a while and potential SSW but am equally aware how quickly that can all suddenly change too!!

    Keeping the faith as it's not even mid winter yet but it's my birthday tomorrow and after a crap year I was really hoping I'd have some snow to cheer me up!! 

    Hope everyone has a happier 2021 and it starts with a snow bang!!!😃xx

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    4 hours ago, Biggin said:

    Biggin Hill ?

    yes.

    I work in West Wickham now

    Just trotting off from a shift > still -1 in the high street

    35C968C2-F3D3-49A4-9473-E843399DF3B7.thumb.jpeg.3cd70347bcb81f1f1ad033039f1d93e1.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
    3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    The reason you can't set FI at a date is because each set of weather patterns and events are different from the next. 

    Take yesterday for example. One would argue that on the high res models FI was at 12hrs on Tuesday has nobody had a scoobie what was going to happen.. 

    If you have a bog standard massive high pressure over us in summer then you could argue that FI maybe 5 or even 7 days away because the pattern is so stuck you pretty much know what's going to happen. 

    The best best advice I can give anyone when rolling through the models each day is go up to 72hrs (high res some only go to 48hrs) and then stop. Anything beyond that may change and even in the 48hr period can change.

     

    but in a way, you are setting FI at a date by saying look no further than 72 hours 😄

    I just feel the term FI, which was coined on here by someone a few years back, just isn't the right term. what i prefer to see is how the next week ahead is panning out and then caveat anything forecast after that as pure speculation. so instead of FI maybe PS lol 😄 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    Still -1 at 10.45 in Locksbottom with frost still on cars and grass.Reckon we will be lucky to hit plus 2 here today.Sun trying to get through but still mainly cloudy and a raw feel today.Be happy to have 3 or 4 days of frost dry out the ground and then mid to late next week let the fun begin(well here’s hoping it pans out that way!🤞🏻❄️)

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    1 minute ago, MAF said:

    but in a way, you are setting FI at a date by saying look no further than 72 hours 😄

    I just feel the term FI, which was coined on here by someone a few years back, just isn't the right term. what i prefer to see is how the next week ahead is panning out and then caveat anything forecast after that as pure speculation. so instead of FI maybe PS lol 😄 🤣

    Because that what we call the "reliable" it's where the percentage of accuracy among the models is considered the highest.. 

    After that and once again I'm going to rely on @Steve Murr or @Paul Sherman to correct me but percentage of accuracy can drop through the floor after 72hrs to below 30% verification 

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    yes.

    I work in West Wickham now

    Just trotting off from a shift > still -1 in the high street

    35C968C2-F3D3-49A4-9473-E843399DF3B7.thumb.jpeg.3cd70347bcb81f1f1ad033039f1d93e1.jpeg

    I know Jail lane well as play golf at cherry lodge🤣.if the snow comes don’t envy your journey much going through BH to NAG!!Take care if the snow and ice come👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex

    Temp has only risen to -1.4 after a low of -1.5. it's gone a bit misty.

    I wonder if large parts of the region could see an ice day to close out 2020?

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic

    Still 0°C at 11:10 and as others have said, this is the type of weather that is a great precursor to snow, as the ground is getting steadily colder and there’s less chance of a wet, slushy mess. Charts are looking quite promising for a chilly spell, but so far, conditions on the ground have given nothing particularly unusual or interesting. Synoptics are the best that I have seen for wintry ‘potential’ for quite some time, however. We shall see 👀 

    Edited by stainesbloke
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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
    1 minute ago, Surrey said:

    Because that what we call the "reliable" it's where the percentage of accuracy among the models is considered the highest.. 

    After that and once again I'm going to rely on @Steve Murr or @Paul Sherman to correct me but percentage of accuracy can drop through the floor after 72hrs to below 30% verification 

    and hence the reason i do not understand why people look at FI. look back on my post as me being 'devils advocate' if you like. as i am fully aware of things like accuracy and verification 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    Just now, MAF said:

    and hence the reason i do not understand why people look at FI. look back on my post as me being 'devils advocate' if you like. as i am fully aware of things like accuracy and verification 🙂

    Indeed.. The issue is some with less knowledge will post up charts from t+100hrs and take it as gospel. 

    Only got it to change 6hrs later on the next run and they sit there like wtf!? How has it changed so much.. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    Can't believe we've finally got an easterly on our doorstep after waiting so long, and now I'm dreading it because it looks like bringing nothing but cold rain (initially at least).

    For such nice charts on offer, it's all just so underwhelming. Here's hoping we can tap into something colder by the end of next week and turn anything falling out of the sky from wet to white!

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Not expecting any Snow Today but we would have about 40 Years ago but because of the Strengthening of the Euro High due to Climate Change it has an Effect on how strong the Low's are although an Atlantic High would be Rathe Flimsy because it's Norm was a Low Around Those Times And So the High is rather Flimsy when it blocks allowing a Strong Canadian Low to Push through and bring Snow to more Southern Regions towards the end of the Cold Spell so there is time for that to happen. 

    Early on the GFS you can see that Canadian Low trying to Connect so wait a Week or Two and we could have some snow. 

    This will bring a Stronger Arctic Northernly pushing Air from Scotland Around Now further South the more you go into the Low and so bring Snow along with it and considering the Slow Moving system it could last for a few Days With olOnn And Off Heavy snow showers. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Here in Woodchurch some very nice scenes greet a Sunny Morning for the First Time it feels like something special is going to happen very soon. 

    A dry Cold much Akin to 2018 As Well

    Sun is very bright sorry if that Photo hurts your eyes. 

    Frost covers the Shadowed Areas looks quite cool. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton

    Got to say for me this cold spell is shaping to be the biggest let down ever, I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with no snow at all and it just steadily turns milder at the end. Nice to see frosts but there is nothing unusual about frosts. Happy new year hope our luck changes soon

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    Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn
    11 minutes ago, clark3r said:

    Got to say for me this cold spell is shaping to be the biggest let down ever, I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with no snow at all and it just steadily turns milder at the end. Nice to see frosts but there is nothing unusual about frosts. Happy new year hope our luck changes soon

    Keep the faith. Still 3 months of winter left. 
     

    I agree with you, our region looks snowless for the reliable. 

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