South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Biggin]

1 hour ago, weathergeek said:

Here near Leatherhead we had some lovely flakes fall in the pre-rain drizzle which was nice to see on my birthday but now I see more showers coming that are rain so despite 1.3c temp outside, the warm pocket of air around them wins!!xx

Happy Birthday WG 

[Paul Sherman]

Really wish I could get excited about the next 2 weeks but I am just not seeing thing falling into place for us and I hope I am wrong. There is still lots of BOOMS going on in the Mod Discussion but to be fare there has been Booms since about the 10th December none which have produced anything yet. 

I will update around 730pm the chances for Monday, Tues and Wednesday from the Models for Snow chances in the SE Quadrant and this will include todays 12z Models.

 

[Polaris]

Heavy Rain ? here 

[Polaris]

12 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Really wish I could get excited about the next 2 weeks but I am just not seeing thing falling into place for us and I hope I am wrong. There is still lots of BOOMS going on in the Mod Discussion but to be fare there has been Booms since about the 10th December none which have produced anything yet. 

I will update around 730pm the chances for Monday, Tues and Wednesday from the Models for Snow chances in the SE Quadrant and this will include todays 12z Models.

 

Totally agree Paul 

10 days ago I was suppose to be experiencing some moderate falls of snow in the form of showers from the N/NE. 
 

10 days on - it’s pouring down ? with temps at a 2c for cold rain. 

[Number 23]

Latest Met update seems to suggest a non event/drop and drip affair for anyone not at elevation in our part of the world over the next week or two. 

Then a period of mush to get through until the final part of the month, where they seem confident of more widespread and productive cold. 

So to my untrained eye, seems we're pinning our hopes on the SSW effects to play out. But there's a lot of hours and a lot of uncertainty between now and then, and if the results aren't kind to us, I think whatever alternative pattern we end up in could see off the bulk of what remains of winter proper. 

Don't mean to be downbeat as it's an encouraging update long term, but really feel this winter might hinge on that period three or so weeks away now. 

 

[Speedbird]

13 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Latest Met update seems to suggest a non event/drop and drip affair for anyone not at elevation in our part of the world over the next week or two. 

Then a period of mush to get through until the final part of the month, where they seem confident of more widespread and productive cold. 

So to my untrained eye, seems we're pinning our hopes on the SSW effects to play out. But there's a lot of hours and a lot of uncertainty between now and then, and if the results aren't kind to us, I think whatever alternative pattern we end up in could see off the bulk of what remains of winter proper. 

Don't mean to be downbeat as it's an encouraging update long term, but really feel this winter might hinge on that period three or so weeks away now. 

 

Given that the Met put us under a weather warning for snow on Monday (covering yesterday and today) only to remove it 48 hours later, i'd take what they say with a pinch of salt right now . . .

[clark3r]

Met office and bbc have been absolutely shocking recently. I’m looking at gfs and ukm and seeing -8 uppers between Monday and Wednesday I have a gut feeling we could see snow next week, today and yesterday have been a lot colder than forecast 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Met office and bbc have been absolutely shocking recently. I’m looking at gfs and ukm and seeing -8 uppers between Monday and Wednesday I have a gut feeling we could see snow next week, today and yesterday have been a lot colder than forecast 

Indeed..some people nearly had an ice day yesterday.. We were due 5c here today from met and BBC currently 2.7c.. 

Still plenty of room for more improvements as well! 

[TSNWK]

Yes., on the temperatures the south east is currently sitting at 2s and 3s under -5 uppers.. which might sense to me because as a rule of thumb I go with -8uppers equaling freezing at the ground..

so with being said why are they forecasting  4s next week and -8uppers.. I presume they are right and there is more too it then my rough guidelines

 

any views please ?

[East Kent Snow Desert]

Can report sleet shower here (Herne Bay), only a mile inland at 60m asl

Edited January 1, 2021 by Gazza

[Frostbite1980]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Yes., on the temperatures the south east is currently sitting at 2s and 3s under -5 uppers.. which might sense to me because as a rule of thumb I go with -8uppers equaling freezing at the ground..

so with being said why are they forecasting  4s next week and -8uppers.. I presume they are right and there is more too it then my rough guidelines

 

any views please ?

Hi mate, if only it was that simple but there are so many other factors in play like dew points and wet bulb temps. It's even harder to fall on the right side of marginal at the moment with such a warm North Sea (about 2 degrees above normal) all I will say is as time goes by we will hopefully start falling on the right side of marginal

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Gazza said:

Can report sleet shower here (Herne Bay), only a mile inland at 60m asl

I still have negative dp, but it is rising now the showers are getting closer. Only 0.7 temp, which will probably also rise.

[Paul Sherman]

Sounds like a distant thunderstorm over the Sea in the Mad Discussion again lots of Booms again so all is good in the hood

[Number 23]

53 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

Given that the Met put us under a weather warning for snow on Monday (covering yesterday and today) only to remove it 48 hours later, i'd take what they say with a pinch of salt right now . . .

Oh of course it's not gospel because it's the Met, but in the interests of balance, some of the earlier output did suggest a possible event for our region, so I suppose they have to ensure any warnings cover the range of possibilities until they're absolutely sure.

They've not really gone in for a proper cold outlook as yet to my knowledge, so as this fits with the excitement over the impending effects of the SSW I think this is encouraging. Equally they seem to think marginality is the order of the day for now, which also fits with the short term output.

Just frustrating that the hinted cold is so far off as to be subject to the usual changes and uncertainty at that range. 

Edited January 1, 2021 by Number 23

[East Kent Snow Desert]

5 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I still have negative dp, but it is rising now the showers are getting closer. Only 0.7 temp, which will probably also rise.

Yes, its certainly the dp (+1) keeping it wet rather than white here

[Nick F]

11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Yes., on the temperatures the south east is currently sitting at 2s and 3s under -5 uppers.. which might sense to me because as a rule of thumb I go with -8uppers equaling freezing at the ground..

so with being said why are they forecasting  4s next week and -8uppers.. I presume they are right and there is more too it then my rough guidelines

 

any views please ?

Unfortunately you cannot correlate surface temp being lower with a lower T850. Depends where the surface flow is sourced. Today its travelled a fair way overland from the N, so not had chance to warm up much, though we've seen temps rise a little from yesterday's values, as we've seen a less cold sector move south, but not risen too much.

Next week, the surface easterly flow has a sea fetch over the North Sea, so will 'warm' at the surface compared to temp when it left Low Countries, despite the colder T850s. How much it can warm up remains to be seen, so temps could still be higher than today, despite lower T850s

[danm]

Just popped out and we have cold drizzle in north London. Haven’t had much luck here in the SE so far, not even a dusting. A few flakes this morning but that’s it so far. 

[Southender]

Trying to remain positive. But perhaps I’m being a bit IMBY being on the coast. But for here -6/-7 even -8c uppers coming across the warm N.Sea is still very marginal for falling and laying snow. Especially with any sort of modified Easterly. The Dew points, wet bulb and air temperatures during the day especially, will often be on the wrong side of marginal here with a profile like that. We need to be seeing -10c uppers or lower on an Easterly straight out of Siberia rather than Greece, this time of year to put us in the frame properly. Inland perhaps it might just be ok and hopefully it will work out for you guys. But that’s why the TV forecasts on the whole are showing a wintry mix at best for our part of the world next week. But for us coasties we need much better unfortunately.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Southender

[NewEra21]

If the UKMO is correct for next week, surely with those uppers we'd be seeing snow showers?

I know the north sea is a degree or two above normal, but surely these uppers are now becoming cold enough to take that out of the equation?

Edited January 1, 2021 by NewEra21

[80sWeather]

1 hour ago, lawrenk said:

Cloudy, dry and 2 degrees here in East Sussex. 

The last couple of days have felt much more like it in terms of a cold spell. Just wasn’t feeling it last weekend. Let’s hope some of those stellar 10 day charts now start counting down consistently. A proper snowy January spell will be great, I’m sure someone will correct me but I can’t really remember an early/mid Jan one since 2013.

Jan 2013 one of my favourite cold spells as most of the snow happened over the weekend.

 

[Eagle Eye]

Shower earlier might have been sleet probably not though still places did get Snow Flurries Today

[Eagle Eye]

5 minutes ago, 80sWeather said:

Jan 2013 one of my favourite cold spells as most of the snow happened over the weekend.

 

I missed my Friends Birthday because the Snow was up to the Door

[Jackski4]

10 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

If the UKMO is correct, surely with those uppers we'd be seeing snow showers?

I know the north sea is a degree or two above normal, but surely these uppers are now becoming cold enough to take that out of the equation?

You’d think mate. And seems to be getting colder every run! Very exciting times ahead next week and potentially for a long time.

 

We would’ve bitten our hands off for excitement like this at any stage last winter, some people are so negative!

[Harry's House]

Very little wintry precipitation or thunder here compared to other places last year.

3 days of sleet on 28th January, and 28th and 29th December.

4 days of thunder. On 16th and 17th April during both evenings, storms approached from France but died out whilst still distant. On 16th and 28th August (these also minor occasions), but a reasonable lightning display during the evening of 13th August.

 

[Eagle Eye]

Anyone fancy an Easternly

No how about a Southernly Jet