South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[slater]

33 minutes ago, Southender said:

So next week we have an Easterly.....sourced from the Med. You couldn’t make it up. Probably going to be warmer than it is now. Patience is being tested...

You are correct, just watched the the Met Office 10 day tread, they have said yes it will be a easterly next week but the source is from the med where temps are in the mid to high teens. Anything that will fall out of the sky will be rain. As I said the otherday the north sea is still at 9c anyway.

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by slater

[Number 23]

I sometimes miss the days of a raging PV and blowtorch jet. At least you knew where you stood with those. 

So far, this winter is like a beautiful birthday cake... filled with drawing pins. 

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

In the mid-2000's, I moved in with my Girlfriend (now my Wife) in Lee, S.E. London and still firmly in Thames Snow Streamer territory, not far from the Thames Estuary, as the crow flies.

The most potent Thames Snow Streamer I've witnessed occurred during the late Evening of Sunday 1st February and the early hours of Monday 2nd February. Below, are the archive charts, at the height of that event:

        500hPa 00z 2nd Feb.2009                       850hPa 00z 2nd Feb.2009

      

This Thames Streamer  gave around 6 inches of Snow, in my location. A pretty substantial fall, for lowland S.E.London.

The heaviest of the Snow Showers, were accompanied by huge cracks of thunder.

I was working in Croydon, Surrey, at the time. This is around 8 miles S.W. of my home location of Lee.

That Monday was my Day off and when I arrived at work the following Day, I was amazed to see the amount of Snow, that has fallen in Croydon.

In my experience of Thames Snow Streamers, it was very unusual to see Croydon "outsnow"the Bromley area, being that bit further away, from the source of moisture, the Thames Estuary.

Below, are a couple of clips of the scenes in Croydon on Mon.2nd February, depicting the aftermath of that event.

 

But as Paul Sherman reported in his superb analysis of this event, this Thames Streamer behaved in an unusual way. 

My Son and Daughter had more Snow than myself, at my former home in Anerley, Anerley is around 5 miles S.W. of Lee.

Below, my Daughters' car, on Mon.2nd February,2009, outside my former Address.

Below, the view overlooking Anerley Station, looking N.E., on the Morning of Mon.2nd February.

Although still a long way off, I'm liking the look of the Synoptics on the ECM at t144, from the 12z run.

        500hPa 12z Tues 5th Jan.                        850hPa 12z Tues 5th Jan. 

     

The kink in the Isobars just to the South of our Region, is very reminiscent of some of those charts I remember from that 2005 spell, I mentioned earlier. Sure the 850;s could do with being a bit lower, as could temperatures due East, over Continental Europe. But as I'm sure experienced NW Members will tell you, cold pools can develop at short notice, on the other side of the North Sea, at this time of Year.

In any case, Tuesday is still a fair way off, in Synoptic Meteorology and no need to despair, just yet!!

A lot can, and probably will change before then.

But certainly, a fascinating period of Model watching, at the monent!!

And that's before any prospective, Sudden Stratospheric Warming.

Twitches his eyebrow, a la Rob McElwee:

Regards,

Tom.   

[Froze were the Days]

40 minutes ago, Southender said:

So next week we have an Easterly.....sourced from the Med. You couldn’t make it up. Probably going to be warmer than it is now. Patience is being tested...

Totally agree...I actually feel fatigued watching the models and some of the conflicting posts, re: the easterly next week if we do get rain (which looks likely) it looks due to the mixing from the eastern Med source and also high DP's so just our luck and a sign of the times I guess. Latest on SSW doesn't look encouraging either with a possible split with a chunk of the vortex in the Atlantic!!

Like you, feel frustrated, we get a PV which is nowhere in sight and a blocked Atlantic but neither a wintry nirvana...further watching and waiting I guess.

[Eagle Eye]

GFS still going for Snow

[Jackski4]

It’s all gone a bit doom and gloom but the pub run is only about 25 minutes away so the only way is up. Going to do the snow dance again, it’ll definitely work this time, right?

[Jason T]

Wow, it's the 30th of December!!! . I think some of us just need to calm down. We've lost a battle with the snow but not the war. Plenty of time yet, trends are still there..and it's still cold. Tbh if we did have 10,15 or even 20 cms of snowfall..what we do with it right now, especially after what we have been told today..it's been an enormous, unprecedented year..and ultimately mentally draining, so we all cling to that one thing that puts a smile on all our faces..like I said lost a battle not a war..plenty of more days to go for this winter..and maybe a sting is inline further down for a much better event or even events of the white gold.

Take care peeps..

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

We never know the only real Way we'll get Snow is Air moving up or coming South moving up would give us more for a shorter time so we will most likely have more with the Expected track of Air to come South so Patience is virtue. 

[steveinsussex]

49 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Just one run mate, don’t get too downbeat. Upgrades coming

No, thats a forecast, it is what will likely happen.

[steveinsussex]

6 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

GFS still going for Snow

what are you looking at?!

[Mark Parsons]

2 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

We never know the only real Way we'll get Snow is Air moving up or coming South moving up would give us more for a shorter time so we will most likely have more with the Expected track of Air to come South so Patience is virtue. 

That is total rubbish it has to be said bud..........

[TSNWK]

Decent drop in temperature this evening In north west Kent currently -1.4 and under clear sky’s there is more cooling to come.. 

Edited December 30, 2020 by TSNWK

[Jackski4]

11 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

GFS still going for Snow

Don’t know what you’re seeing there mate.

[Mark Parsons]

11 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

what are you looking at?!

The UK is white so I guess he thinks that is snow rather than just bone dry!

[abruzzi spartan]

Well, there's no real convincing sign of anything properly cold as far as I can see.  It's a chilly snap isn't it.  Nothing more than that so far.  Might change I suppose, but some on here have been a bit dismissive of the pro forecasters for not going for a snow frenzy.  Just a case, I think, of being a bit more considered and ignoring your personal bias.   It's easy enough to post what you'd like to happen when you have no responsibility other than a few followers, but a lot more challenging when people actually rely on you.

If there's a whiteout in the SE next week and it's forecast on here a few days in advance then please do dig up this post and remind me of it and I will happily eat humble pie with snow topping. And filling

[SMU]

Hurrah

back in the sub zero club!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hurrah

back in the sub zero club!

In the valley its now DP - 2 temp - 1.7 both still falling! 

[Eagle Eye]

40 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

what are you looking at?!

Look closely. 

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

In the valley its now DP - 2 temp - 1.7 both still falling! 

Yep I’m at -2 just down the road from @Steve Murrwas surprised that he is just at freezing.. my readings are aligned with other stations in area..

maybe an inversion of sorts? I’m at 80 meters Steve I would imagine is about 100 above that 

[steveinsussex]

4 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Look closely. 

at what?

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

at what?

Just look closely!!! Nah I’m messing mate, I don’t know if he’s trolling or not at this point. I wish I had his enthusiasm to life though.

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Yep I’m at -2 just down the road from @Steve Murrwas surprised that he is just at freezing.. my readings are aligned with other stations in area..

maybe an inversion of sorts? I’m at 80 meters Steve I would imagine is about 100 above that 

 

Yes classic top of hill V frost hollows at bottom. I did a round trip to my mums an hour ago.

Longfield at 20M -1c on car 

Got to Eltham 0c.

A20 dropped to -1c again just at Farningham roundabout > then increased to 0c at brands hatch & +1c at the radio mast 230M !

Classic upsloping of warmer air out of the valley.

[Southender]

5 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

at what?

Can’t you see the potential snowflake falling on the boats moored off Hastings Pier?

Edited December 30, 2020 by Southender

[anything-but]

Just missing one vital ingredient.

 

[Zak M]

It was a nice day today - the sun was out for a change! So I decided to take some shots with my new camera... I think they turned out pretty well!

The pictures below are my two French Bulldogs - Luna & Neytiri:

         

And I tried some night-time shooting and tested out the ISO. A lovely moon corona appeared while doing so: