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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl

I foolishly ventured into the mod thread and now I am totally confused.....I think over the next week or was it two weeks it will snow but may be rain and the cold will still be with us but it may be mild,  I think between them on that thread they have all eventualities covered so somebody must be correct !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Looking like the New Year will bring a Southernly Jet with Northern Airflow this will Most Likely bring Showery Snow which has also brought down the Easternly Airflow Which Could also bring Sea Formed Snow but is unlikely to be anything More Than Sleet however with this Zonal Jet creating A Boundary Line that Col Air Is More Likely To Stay With Us For Quite some time. 

gfsnh-0-42.thumb.png.cf5bef57148a881661414965502a5294.pnggfsnh-0-90.thumb.png.401533053c2aa969785838649b188cab.pnggfsnh-0-126.thumb.png.408732b6382ce1ce8869525fffd3845a.png

Notica That Low Pressure Area Towards Newfoundland has developed just Below That Canadian Low which has been cut off from That Canadian Low As A New Seperate Low Which has caused an Easternly Shift and A Weakening Of the high. 

Later on you can see that the Low has caused the High to sink East and Towards Europe More Allowing That Arctic Low to delve Westwards with the Former High there having been pushed South and Allowing The Strengthening Of That Low later on. 

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These are not definite they are If But and Maybe's but offer A Guideline to What Type Of System We May be seeing. 

You can see the Precipitation becoming more Southernly which will mean that We Could Have A Higher Chance Of Snow But Really Do You Think That's Going to happen. 

gfseuw-2-108.png

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gfseuw-2-162.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

So a lot of talk of why are the BBC forecasting a Rain/Sleet Streamer for next week - Have taken a look at 5 of the Models that go to T120 for todays update and will put a percentage in here of what it is currently showing for Monday 4th Jan

Arpege currently showing Rain

Icon currently showing Rain

Ukmo currently showing Rain

ECMWF currently showing Rain/Showers

GFS currently showing Rain or Wintry Showers

So at the moment the percentage chances of Snow on Monday are at 0% out of 100 so there is really only one way we can go on tomorrows Update. I will add in the Precip Models as we get closer that only go out to a few days ahead and average out the chances to get the percentage but currently not looking great

Mondays Snow Risk Currently at - 0%

Edited by Paul Sherman
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Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

So a lot of talk of why are the BBC forecasting a Rain/Sleet Streamer for next week - Have taken a look at 5 of the Models that go to T120 for todays update and will put a percentage in here of what it is currently showing for Monday 4th Jan

Arpege currently showing Rain

Icon currently showing Rain

ECMWF currently showing Rain/Showers

GFS currently showing Rain or Wintry Showers

So at the moment the percentage chances of Snow on Monday are at 0% out of 100 so there is really only one way we can go on tomorrows Update. I will add in the Precip Models as we get closer that only go out to a few days ahead and average out the chances to get the percentage but currently not looking great

Mondays Snow Risk Currently at - 0%

The Tuesday looks a little more promising though in terms of both temperature and precipitation.

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Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn
33 minutes ago, Rob Deacon said:

defo won't be snow from this even if it had gone North a tad, as my temp has just gone up 2c to 4.1c in last 30 minutes as the edge of it gets closer.

Haywards Heath, West Sussex

Agree. Temp here 2c 

Sleet at best 

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
1 minute ago, Trom said:

The Tuesday looks a little more promising though in terms of both temperature and precipitation.

Yh will include Tuesday on tomorrows Update 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Looking at the Models we've got an Early January Zonal Forecast for about a Day Probably unlikely to see much laying oh well 

Snow Chance is a maximum of 15%

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
25 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

So a lot of talk of why are the BBC forecasting a Rain/Sleet Streamer for next week - Have taken a look at 5 of the Models that go to T120 for todays update and will put a percentage in here of what it is currently showing for Monday 4th Jan

Arpege currently showing Rain

Icon currently showing Rain

Ukmo currently showing Rain

ECMWF currently showing Rain/Showers

GFS currently showing Rain or Wintry Showers

So at the moment the percentage chances of Snow on Monday are at 0% out of 100 so there is really only one way we can go on tomorrows Update. I will add in the Precip Models as we get closer that only go out to a few days ahead and average out the chances to get the percentage but currently not looking great

Mondays Snow Risk Currently at - 0%

That high, Paul?

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Forgot to do my December Prediction so here it is

No Snow except on the 6th, I think I did quite well

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

That high, Paul?

As it currently Stands Ed..........well yes cant find a single model showing the white stuff for Monday......yet 

Lets see if the ECM can start a trend on its 12z run

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

As it currently Stands Ed..........well yes cant find a single model showing the white stuff for Monday......yet 

Lets see if the ECM can start a trend on its 12z run

In a normal winter it is normally -100%. So I’ll definitely take 0% lol

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn

The disagreement, over hype and negativity on the MODEL thread is enough to give anyone a headache... I’m beginning to think there’s only a select few who actually know what they’re talking about. (Not saying I do!) 

 

ECM rolling soon, hoping it’s going to be a snowy stonker.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Lol. I did say that if you go down to the end of the pier in Brighton and stuck your hand out......

62EB4499-1FBF-41B2-BBCC-E3512DE69205.thumb.jpeg.e9b8e0f07f0421217bdba4f531b36c7a.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Lol. I did say that if you go down to the end of the pier in Brighton and stuck your hand out......

62EB4499-1FBF-41B2-BBCC-E3512DE69205.thumb.jpeg.e9b8e0f07f0421217bdba4f531b36c7a.jpeg

You'll get some Rain mixed in. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
1 minute ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

You'll get some Rain mixed in. 

I said that too lol

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & Snowy, Hot & Sunny & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex.
15 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Lol. I did say that if you go down to the end of the pier in Brighton and stuck your hand out......

62EB4499-1FBF-41B2-BBCC-E3512DE69205.thumb.jpeg.e9b8e0f07f0421217bdba4f531b36c7a.jpeg

At 17.55 that shows precip over Littlehampton... hmmm not that I saw. On to the next chase!

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Incredibly a Stratosphere Split what does this mean for us down on the ground though? 

gfsnh-10-162.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Surrey
  • Location: Reigate Surrey

The overall picture does not look good to me . Failed with the snow today and the immediate future looking decidedly average for us in the South East . Uppers far too mild for am easterly unless you enjoy cold rain. Maybe mid January we might get some colder air . Until then its no snow I feel. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
5 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Incredibly a Stratosphere Split what does this mean for us down on the ground though? 

gfsnh-10-162.png

This may be where your wonderful enthusiasm is ahead of your knowledge, sheldon. Can you show me where you think the split is on that temperature chart ( it exhibits the temp profile of a displacement too)?

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Upper Belvedere, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sunny days!
  • Location: Upper Belvedere, Kent.

Even though we weren't lucky enough to get some snow, been a great distraction from all the other stuff going on. Silver linings eh....... 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

This may be where your wonderful enthusiasm is ahead of your knowledge, sheldon. Can you show me where you think the split is on that temperature chart ( it exhibits the temp profile of a displacement too)?

I'm only saying there's a split in the Northern half and wether this could affect High's Pushing Low's towards our South and wether this is what Sends Low's in Winter Time Or Around Then

Apparantly the NOAA have some help with Reading Charts but thier website is so hard to move around. 

Edited by Sheldon Cooper
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