South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[loafer]

GFS still has most of Kent covered;

 

 

[loafer]

Then back for a second bite;

 

 

[Polaris]

12 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Don't know if anyone posted these but these screenshots from latest Video update on BBC weather site is fantastic at times for virtually all of our region between late Wednesday and Friday!  Never expected to see such a deep swathe of snow for such an extended period on the video forecast, maybe they've incorporated GEM into their forecast too

Just reposting from @Kentspur Hope you don’t mind mate 

12 hours on and Models and BBC TV forecasts of this, are a distant 12 hour memory. 
Can you believe us taxpayers are paying for this inaccuracy. 
 

Joe public must be baffled “Snow end of the week kids” 

Watches tonight forecast “Not a flake, sorry kids

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Polaris

[Easily sled]

Agreed, not looking good for tomorrow now, these scenarios never really play out well for us (not in recent years anyway) think I will have a week off now and see if it looks better in early Jan. Happy New Year

Edited December 29, 2020 by Easily sled

[Jackski4]

@Sheldon Cooper age shouldn’t and doesn’t even matter when it comes to this. We all ultimately share the same passion and want the same outcome (SNOW!) So keep being you.

 

GFS as others have said slightly further north and then a wrap around, this isn’t over yet.

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Sheldon loving your enthusiasm, who cares if you get it wrong from time to time, not like this is a site immune to errors! It's up to other members to decide who to trust and who to ignore, and that's not something for you to worry about! 

Think it's looking increasingly like this thread will need some positivity over the coming days, as we continue to traverse the badlands of FI for a cold spell worthy of the name, at least for our little part of the UK. 

I'll introduce some of that.

Temp is dropping like a stone here, already -0.2 and dropping. That's even though it's cloudy 

[BLS]

Recent update of the GFS has kent seeing snow still

[simonhall6]

44 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi good afternoon peeps

Hope everyone is well and you all had s lovely Christmas. I have not posted here for some time, sadly my dad passed away 3 weeks ago so up to now it has not been really good times for me. 

A rather cold grey day in Walthamstow today grey laden sky's but nothing has fallen from the sky.

looks like the Midlands have been lucky again today with the snow. I have been reading through the posts to try and catch up. To be honest tomorrow's event even at this stage I don't think has been resolved yet. The track of this system I bet is giving a lot of headache at Exeter. However I personally have not got any high expectations just so not to be disheartened at the end as I do not need that at this moment of time. Hopefully fingers crossed we might strike lucky in our region.

What does interest me is the direction of travel after this system clears. From what I saw yesterday looks as if winds will swing more NE and the BBC did show a crop of snow showers coming our way from New Years night into early New Year's Day before things dry up. I don't know how this stands today it might be a complete different picture but the snow graphics for our region looked good, also taking into consideration we tend to do better here in a NE or E wind direction puts us in a good place as long as temperatures and due points are good.

Thereafter over the weekend there is much talk of the wind direction switching to an Easterly component and colder air incoming. Again I don't know if that still stands or if that has changed. If this does happen then I would say we will be in a better place for seeing some snow in our region.

As always this is a very complicated setup and there are pockets of systems everywhere so the situation keeps changing so best to keep an eye on the latest developments. 

I do hope we see some of the white stuff it will certainly cheer us up to what has been a horrible year. I hope everyone stays safe and in good health at these difficult times. Fingers crossed for some snow.

take care all

stay safe

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND GOES ON

kind regards

Condolences to you and your family E17 Boy 

[Eagle Eye]

It's like being in the Storms and Connective Discussion in May waiting for the Dissapointment to come. 

When the Snow comes we don't enjoy it enough because it's nothing like Previous Big Year's but it is Extremely Unlikely for Those To happen anymore. 

Can we put the Gulf Stream on in The Summer And ziff In the winter. That would be great thanks. A Hint To Mother Nature hint hint. 

[SHM040519]

Really think that us in Kent will be in the sweet spot. Just have a feeling! Fingers crossed!

[Southender]

Unless there is some big shifts North on this evenings models, it looks like the game is up for areas North of the Thames Weds into Thurs.

South of the Thames are still in the game just about...

[Paul Sherman]

Like I said earlier GFS plays catch up all the time - Only my opinion and others have theirs on that Model but I would expect the 18z to shun the idea completely when its caught up with the other better mesoscale models.

[Daniel*]

One day Sheldon you will be the smartest on here give or take 40 years (kidding)  keep the posts coming you’re learning all the time! As said no huge change from earlier GFS run, good for areas south of London but I’m not sure you would back it the one thing is though you can never be 100% sure on anything.

[pureasthedriven]

19 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Also bare in mind that those BBC graphics are atleast 6 hours behind.

And it’s the BBC who don’t even show snow when it’s actually snowing

[Eagle Eye]

New Year bringing a New Chance for Sleet let's not forget that the New Year is less than the reliable GFS Time frame away. 

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

And it’s the BBC who don’t even show snow when it’s actually snowing

Indeed. Certainly not taking their forecast or out of date graphics as gospel. Awaiting the ECM and Harlem.

[Daniel*]

What I find comical the BBC weather app now has interest for me as things go the other way. What data is used for these forecasts?

[chionomaniac]

From a team member to @Sheldon Cooper. Keep posting and trying to interpret the models. Love your enthusiasm even if it a little misjudged at times. But we are all guilty of that and being so young and keen you have the potential to be far more knowledgeable than many on here given time. I’m always happy to help if you are unsure of something, just link me in to your post and when available I will help if possible.

Ask @kold weather what age he was when he first posted and then ask him what he is up to nowadays. So keep plugging on. Oh and sometimes less is more too, so remember that before hitting the return button too.

[Eagle Eye]

13 minutes ago, Polaris said:

 

Joe public must be baffled “Snow end of the week kids” 

Watches tonight forecast “Not a flake, sorry kids

 

Always wondered where Joe Public Lives

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

What I find comical the BBC weather app now has interest for me as things go the other way. What data is used for these forecasts?

Gem surely. 

[Davegwarn]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Good afternoon South Easterners-

Today has felt like the first day of a proper cold spell, its 2.8c here but the air has a proper bite when you walk outside.

Slate grey skies, 0c dewpoint is what a winters day should be all about ....

Garden looking a bit rough- needs an hour TLC

My wife knows when there's potential for snow because a) I'm on the phone constantly and b) I suddenly get very interested in clearing everything off of the lawn, making sure no dogs mess etc etc...

Classic signs of incoming cold...

[Southender]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

What I find comical the BBC weather app now has interest for me as things go the other way. What data is used for these forecasts?

[pureasthedriven]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

What I find comical the BBC weather app now has interest for me as things go the other way. What data is used for these forecasts?

Change their mind more than Boris. 
I would say as the app as go (I know, I know...) from a purely temp trend perspective over time, the one on my iPhone does a reasonable job. For example, flagged the chilly Christmas Eve/Day period way in advance. So what do they use..? 

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

What I find comical the BBC weather app now has interest for me as things go the other way. What data is used for these forecasts?

Data that has been overloaded with the Christmas sherry filter?

[Snow Queen one]

Sheldon those PPN charts are notoriously bad to look at.  I have seen sleet show o  the radar and in reality it has been snow falling.  Use them to give you a very rough idea only.