South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Kentspur]

4 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Hes only 13, probably not seen snow stick before.

I'll let him off then he's only a , anyway I hate to be the bearer of bad news but latest Icon is not a pretty sight! Latest run vs earlier 6z snow accumulation 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Kentspur

[Hotspur62]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

I'll let him off then he's only a , anyway I hate to be the bearer of bad news but latest Icon is not a pretty site! Latest run vs earlier 6z

Oh dear that doesn’t look too clever!!when does latest Harmonie come out?if that shows something similar looks like landscape will be staying green for SE!

[Paul Sherman]

Yh my Cold Spell rating rapidly going down the pooper now at 0.5/10 from 1 earlier

Icon and Ukv an absolute shocker for tomorrow and most of the South and next 4 or 5 days after looking like leaden grey skies on an easterly slack flow

In fact I would wager now we probably wont even get a frost out of this spell if the cloudy skies continue.

I would even give my right arm for even a frost at this stage.

Ho Hum

[Eagle Eye]

14 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Excuse me for being a pessimist? But historic? I don't understand what you're on about? This just shows a random GFS image way out with a load of sleet over us? Can you please explain more clearly what you mean?

Compared to last Year. 

[Eagle Eye]

8 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Hes only 13, probably not seen snow stick before.

two years

2013

2018

[Southender]

Yep. ICON is a disaster. Barely clips the Sussex/Kent coast.

Still time for corrections North, but that envelope is getting smaller by the minute.

[Daniel*]

It’s not looking good seen latest ICON and AROME nearly all precip gets wasted in channel, the far south still interesting enough, I wasn’t sure about the UKV but I fear it might be right. Seems we need a miracle but still worth monitoring. What an awful year can’t get one good thing. 

[Eagle Eye]

No point in Defending myself I'm going to get shot down just because I'm 13,gee thanks. 

[SHM040519]

It is not over yet. We still have 28 hours or so till it happens. Loads can and will change! 

Lets see what the 12z bring tonight! 

[Paul Sherman]

3 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

two years

2013

2018

I feel so sorry for you Mate - Wish you could have seen the 2010, 1991 and 1987 snowfalls

All 3 had over 34cm level snow with 1987 and 1991 having 20-30foot drifts in places. Truly Historic

[Polaris]

Looking at all models and ensembles (with the historical shift south on these situations) 

This is where I think could catch falling snow/snow cover Wednesday into Thursday providing no more shift south. 

 

[lewis028]

10 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

Oh dear that doesn’t look too clever!!when does latest Harmonie come out?if that shows something similar looks like landscape will be staying green for SE!

17:00 roughly it starts rolling out, all hope on that

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

No point in Defending myself I'm going to get shot down just because I'm 13,gee thanks. 

I'm sorry it shouldn't be this way. Some grown ups need to grow up I think. Stay around.

[jamesgold]

Latest BBC forecast shows tomorrow’s system nowhere close to us, seems pretty nailed on now. Onwards to the weekend, hopefully the easterly flow gets us into some showers

[Jackski4]

Still some time for corrections northwards. Since when was ICON the most reliable model? Let’s see what all the others have to say especially ECM. ICON is looking very nice re an easterly setting up and much colder uppers than on previous runs, let’s not get too pessimistic.. 
 

Also can we try and remember that we’ve all been 13 once. It’s a miracle a 13 year old is this enthusiastic about weather these days instead of video games and social media! If 2020 has taught us anything it’s that we need to be nicer to each other.

 

 

 

[SouthLondonCold]

4 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

No point in Defending myself I'm going to get shot down just because I'm 13,gee thanks. 

Not at all because you're 13, I was only a couple years older than you when I joined in 2018, so it's definitely good to start early.

Unfortunately, a lot of your posts make no factual sense, and have just added to confusion about this precipitation in the West that is only headed in one place - the channel.

At this stage it's better to let the more experience posters post, there are many of them.

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

I feel so sorry for you Mate - Wish you could have seen the 2010, 1991 and 1987 snowfalls

All 3 had over 34cm level snow with 1987 and 1991 having 20-30foot drifts in places. Truly Historic

I was Alive in 2010 but can't recall it Earliest Weather Memory was a Thunderstorm in 2012 after a 35oc or so Heatwave 2013 it was Hafway up the Door the Snow and in 2014 I went up North to the Peak District and Saw Snow fall most days. 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, jamesgold said:

Latest BBC forecast shows tomorrow’s system nowhere close to us, seems pretty nailed on now. Onwards to the weekend, hopefully the easterly flow gets us into some showers

Also bare in mind that those BBC graphics are atleast 6 hours behind.

[dallas]

1 minute ago, jamesgold said:

Latest BBC forecast shows tomorrow’s system nowhere close to us, seems pretty nailed on now. Onwards to the weekend, hopefully the easterly flow gets us into some showers

But if you enter a postcode for our area into the Met office site, it gives us light snow Wed night into Thursday. Earlier there was nothing, so who knows

[Polaris]

9 minutes ago, Southender said:

Yep. ICON is a disaster. Barely clips the Sussex/Kent coast.

Still time for corrections North, but that envelope is getting smaller by the minute.

Icon had my location under heavy snow +24hrs for Monday gone 

Didnt see a flake, I don’t rate the ICON at all like others. It even had thunderstorms completely wrong for my local +12hr in summer. I should have been drenched. Stayed sunny 

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Looking at all models and ensembles (with the historical shift south on these situations) 

This is where I think could catch falling snow/snow cover Wednesday into Thursday providing no more shift south. 

 

Even I don't think that'll happen, expecting a bigger Southwards shift than that although we could have the infamous eastwards shift. 

[Southender]

Might be an idea to give the forum a swerve this evening if corrections north don't appear on the evening output 

[jamesgold]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

Also bare in mind that those BBC graphics are atleast 6 hours behind.

Yeah it seems like it aha. The BBC graphics were the last straw, but if anything changes I’ll definitely find it here.
Anyway, good to know the easterly is showing on the ICON and we can find something there

[Eagle Eye]

6 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Still some time for corrections northwards. Since when was ICON the most reliable model? Let’s see what all the others have to say especially ECM. ICON is looking very nice re an easterly setting up and much colder uppers than on previous runs, let’s not get too pessimistic.. 
 

Also can we try and remember that we’ve all been 13 once. It’s a miracle a 13 year old is this enthusiastic about weather these days instead of video games and social media! If 2020 has taught us anything it’s that we need to be nicer to each other.

 

 

 

I'm not even the Youngest on this Forum, @LeonH18 lives on the same street as me and is even younger. 

[Number 23]

Sheldon loving your enthusiasm, who cares if you get it wrong from time to time, not like this is a site immune to errors! It's up to other members to decide who to trust and who to ignore, and that's not something for you to worry about! 

Think it's looking increasingly like this thread will need some positivity over the coming days, as we continue to traverse the badlands of FI for a cold spell worthy of the name, at least for our little part of the UK.