South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[clark3r]

1 hour ago, Uxbridge90 said:

I'd certainly be quite excited if your south of our region, might not extend much more northwards than South London but there will be some happy folks in here tomorrow evening/Thursday morning. Looking forward to seeing the pictures! 

I wouldn’t get too excited as it could be rain along the coast, fingers are crossed everyone in south east gets at least a covering 

[TSNWK]

From the general thread:

the ukv 06:00 has the perception all in the channel, treading further and further south sadly.

 

[kold weather]

Well good luck trying to come to any conclusion about tomorrow evening from the last set of runs.

00z ECM op was on the southern end of the ensemble suite (most are a little further north at least) and a little weaker as well.

06z GFS op is pretty much inline with its set of ensembles - there are a few that go south, but more are to the north of the GFS op.

Plenty of uncertainty from other models, AROME and Euro4 again are more on the southern end of the suite of models. In theory they should be reaching the time where they are more accurate but even they are prone to wild swings at this point in these types of set-ups where even small differences in depth of the low will shift it pretty drastically.

[jamesgold]

A question on Thames Streamers, obviously we’re looking at charts late this week into next with a pretty nice North Easterly. Is it better to have a flatter easterly for the Thames?

[Paul Sherman]

Problem is 2 fold James

1. The flow is too Slack

2. The Uppers and Cold to the East are simply not cold enough

End result probably area of Mist and Snizzle and raw winds off the North Sea. 

This Cold Spell is getting a rating of 1 out of 10 atm and that could be downgraded to 0 by this time next week 

[Chertseystreamer79]

5 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

A question on Thames Streamers, obviously we’re looking at charts late this week into next with a pretty nice North Easterly. Is it better to have a flatter easterly for the Thames?

I’d say the ne direction blows in a colder air flow right now but the angle of attack is possibly not as favourable....better than a south easterly though for sure. Steve murr is the streamer expert for me!

[MAF]

still, it is early winter yet @Paul Sherman and far better a start to it than a few previous years.  strange thing i have noticed so far this period is that we are yet to have a decent frost here in SE18. to my uneducated mind, that means theres is no moisture in the air which makes the current cold temps a bit odd. cold yet dry and cloudy. no ppn though.

[MAF]

15 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

A question on Thames Streamers, obviously we’re looking at charts late this week into next with a pretty nice North Easterly. Is it better to have a flatter easterly for the Thames?

totally no knowledge behind this; but to me a streamer will depend on the conditions ahead of the precipitation its coming towards. so if the ppn is heading due east along a path of the thames then it needs to hit the conditions conducive for snow. temps/dew points/ etc. 

trust me though, i am not a weather expert by any means.

looking out the window is as far as i get with knowing what the weather is doing

[NewEra21]

Hopefully someone in the south of the region manages to get something out of that band coming through tomorrow/Thursday.

But besides that this cold spell has been a non event in the SE and EA. Sure it's chilly, but that's about it. 

I'm dreading the easterly bringing cold rain, because we wait so long for this setup and now it's just not cold enough. Hopefully in the next few days we can see the uppers upgraded to more widely -8 and lower (not looking likely though). Otherwise it's just going to be cold wet and miserable!

[lassie23]

anyone had snow yet

[NO LONGER POSTING]

You could have a 1000 model runs between now and tomorrow evening and it could still be wrong. 

You need to look for trends in models but when they flip flop about its very easy to pick the model that shows you what you want to see. 

The weather will do what it wants and mother nature will do as she pleases regardless of our million pound model computers. 

This kind of setup are either strike gold or bust. Bit like a game of roulette... 

[lewis028]

59 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

A question on Thames Streamers, obviously we’re looking at charts late this week into next with a pretty nice North Easterly. Is it better to have a flatter easterly for 

For my part of the region just north of the Thames, we need a ENE flow, with cold enough uppers to create instability over a relatively warm North Sea, the bigger temperature difference the more unstable the air becomes and with a decent enough flow which combines with moisture evaporating off the North Sea creates our convective cloud and brings the showers inland. With a slack flow, and not as cold uppers we won’t achieve that. 
Our best snowfalls have come from this setup, I love a Thames streamer hopefully we get the chance of one this winter

Edited December 29, 2020 by lewis028

[Rob Deacon]

unfortunately I don't see any chance of snow where I am in Sussex, it's just not cold enough!

I'm gutted as I really would of liked to have some snow for me and my son to play in before I have to take him back to his mum's on Friday evening

Still a lot of winter left, so hopefully we can get some actual cold weather in January and have better chance, finger crossed....

 

[V for Very Cold]

2.5C and rain in bedford

been a damp squib

[Polaris]

Light rain ? just started here. 

[snowblind]

Warning is still there for tomorrow and Thursday. The northern extent has been moved south so just getting to Suffolk now. Text remains the same so 2 to 5 cms with 15 possible mainly over 200 meters.

Still a lot of variance in the models for this but we still have a chance so let's wait and see.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, lewis028 said:

Paul’s just explained it, 
For my part of the region just north of the Thames, we need a ENE flow, with cold enough uppers to create instability over a relatively warm North Sea, the bigger temperature difference the more unstable the air becomes and with a decent enough flow which combines with moisture evaporating off the North Sea creates our convective cloud and brings the showers inland. With a slack flow, and not as cold uppers we won’t achieve that. 
Our best snowfalls have come from this setup, I love a Thames streamer hopefully we get the chance of one this winter

Aye... IMO (when talking about might what happen 5-10 days' hence, anything warmer than -8C Uppers is best assumed to be 'marginal', even if only for sanity's sake...? I guess that's why so many of us (especially those of us who live by the sea) yearn for -10C Uppers -- below which (barring acres of blazing bonfires -- or a HAARP machine?) marginality flies right out the window. It is defenestrated. It is dead. It is deceased...!

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, Rob Deacon said:

unfortunately I don't see any chance of snow where I am in Sussex, it's just not cold enough!

I'm gutted as I really would of liked to have some snow for me and my son to play in before I have to take him back to his mum's on Friday evening

Still a lot of winter left, so hopefully we can get some actual cold weather in January and have better chance, finger crossed....

 

I think you’ll find your location is more favoured than most. The precip looks to come in Wednesday night much less marginal time, if things go well you could get a decent snow event from this.

[Daniel*]

48 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Problem is 2 fold James

1. The flow is too Slack

2. The Uppers and Cold to the East are simply not cold enough

End result probably area of Mist and Snizzle and raw winds off the North Sea. 

This Cold Spell is getting a rating of 1 out of 10 atm and that could be downgraded to 0 by this time next week 

For vigorous convection perhaps but taking GFS -8C uppers and North Sea SSTs nearly 10C easy to put together there would be activity, GFS also has kinks/troughs in the flow coming from east.

I think you’re being a bit too pessimistic here considering NE England and E Scotland has had decent falls from more diluted cold and slack flows as well.

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Daniel*

[Polaris]

Moderate drizzly rain here now that’s soaking everything 

Slate grey skies and cold 

[jamesgold]

Thanks for all the replies on the streamer question, guess all we can do is hope. I’m encouraged by what the North are seeing at the moment, just need it to fall right for us. I’m still holding out some hope for tomorrow, however unfounded that might be in South London It’s the hope that kills you...

[SLEETY]

Be better end of the week for snow when winds turn more easterly and the dew points should be lower with continental air coming in, hopefully. 

Been rubbish so far, hate these marginal set-ups it's always rain here in these situations. 

[lewis028]

27 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

For vigorous convection perhaps but taking GFS -8C uppers and North Sea SSTs nearly 10C easy to put together there would be activity, GFS also has kinks/troughs in the flow coming from east.

I think you’re being a bit too pessimistic here considering NE England and E Scotland has had decent falls from more diluted cold and slack flows as well.

 

I’m sure a 13c temperature difference is good enough to form a streamer/showers &  obviously any higher than that, then the more convective.

Edited December 29, 2020 by lewis028

[Southender]

Early days still for this colder period. But I’d like to see at least a light covering for all in our region by this weekend. If not toys will be everywhere. Patience required in huge amounts I think...

[Wivenswold]

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Edited December 29, 2020 by Wivenswold