South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Uxbridge90]

I'd certainly be quite excited if your south of our region, might not extend much more northwards than South London but there will be some happy folks in here tomorrow evening/Thursday morning. Looking forward to seeing the pictures! 

[MAF]

Really not sure what is happening in the next few days. Met Office still has yellow warnings for remainder of the week yet a general feeling on the threads in  here seems to be a no show. just watched the news 24 forecast and still a band of rain/sleet snow predicted for Wednesday into Thursday. 

confused.com 

[TSNWK]

Putting the location of perception to one side for now.. do we have any views on what the hi res charts are indicating temperature wise... ?

grnerally across south east we are 2 or 3 and have yet to record a air frost, the system is coming from the west and will at best keep temperature the same...?
 

 

[lewis028]

11 minutes ago, lewis028 said:

Harmonie 6z slightly south I think, mainly south of the Thames and keeps the south east in play, heavier precipitation in the channel, swings round and brings north of the Thames in, still ok for our region and still time for upgrades, but most of us should be seeing something falling out the sky

 

Harmonie doesn’t go out past 7am Thursday at the moment, what will be interesting to see is if that low pivots in the North Sea and the band comes back through the southeast later in the day/Friday.  One to keep an eye on also 

Edited December 29, 2020 by lewis028

[Shere Khan]

Looks interesting for folks living south of London/ central Kent Wednesday night. Not only do we have the uppers just about cool enough but the systems seems to be clearing east in the early hours which will help to bring the snow level down. Im guessing the sweet spot on this run would be Maidstone east across to Lenham with 5/6cm not being ruled out across the north downs.

[Southender]

Latest METO warning for Weds/Thurs puts the snow line around North Essex across into Herts. Marginality around the Kent/Sussex Channel coasts as per. Knife edge situation. Hate these setups.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Southender

[Hammer]

12 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Let's see if the met change there warnings with the northern extent of the low weds evening 

 

Hi, yes they have shrunk it southwards a moment ago. Whilst I joked earlier about snow line a mile south of me. I probably won't be far off. 

[Nimbusman]

12 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Let's see if the met change there warnings with the northern extent of the low weds evening 

 

Met Office have adjusted the warning south, for now the game is up anywhere north of Essex (from this feature) latest runs and fax back this up unfortunately. Personally speaking I hope it does move further north but might be relying on a feed of showers here once the low pulls away. 

[Lampostwatcher]

Yes the updated met office warning for weds 

The northern extent covers whole of greater london

Draw a line from Gloucester  Oxford Watford to Chelmsford 

 

[jamesgold]

Latest Met Update still keeps it in the most “unlikely” row of its matrix, so it’s still all to play for. Can’t see it being resolved until this evening

[Mark wheeler]

Updated area 

[mattneal]

Still another 7 or so runs between now and tomorrow evening. Still plenty of time for movement either south or north. 

[Southender]

Higher ground of Kent looks the favoured spot right now for some decent accumulation. 
 

From a selfish point of view I’d like a shift North. But that would probably screw the entire Kent/Sussex coastal gang and leave them with a wintry mix.

[MAF]

Met Office warning says this - 

Quote

An Atlantic frontal system looks likely to bring rain into parts of southwestern Britain on Wednesday. As this moves further east into colder air there is a chance of this rain turning to snow. The extent of any snow is very uncertain, but 2 to 5 cm could fall across a swathe of southern Wales and southern England, with a small chance of 10 to 15 cm settling in a few places, most likely on high ground above 200 metres. As the rain and snow clears on Wednesday night there is a risk of widespread ice forming on untreated surfaces.

As ever when it comes to forecasting snow. the science is never quite proved until its falling out the sky.  

[Hammer]

7 minutes ago, Southender said:

Higher ground of Kent looks the favoured spot right now for some decent accumulation. 
 

From a selfish point of view I’d like a shift North. But that would probably screw the entire Kent/Sussex coastal gang and leave them with a wintry mix.

That is fine by me. Only jokng Kent/Sussex coastal gang. 

[WxHerts]

Yikes from Arome, somehow it manages to perfectly skim the coast lol

 

[Hammer]

10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Updated area 

Literally when I zoom in to my location on the app, I can see the warning ends 3 or 4 miles south of me. Priceless. 

[Nimbusman]

32 minutes ago, WxHerts said:

Yikes from Arome, somehow it manages to perfectly skim the coast lol

 

If the track does end up that far south would we be in play from the convective stuff off the North Sea?

Still to be decided but I suspect this will go to the wire.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Nimbusman

[Eagle Eye]

That Rain Band in North coming towards us by tommorrow. 

[Matty J]

Honestly if i had a pound for the amount of times the ECM has lead us up the garden path I’d be a rich man!

 

it churns out ridiculous snowfall accumulation charts and we’ve seemingly gone from being pasted in snow to now seeing practically nothing unless there’s a massive turnaround!

Seems the lesser models always get a better handle on these situations than the big boys

[Joanne Swann]

met office have taken off my one snow flake  what do they know, its not over until the fat lady sings , those who dares wins, im still extremely  hopeful, we will see that white stuff falling from the sky, um um um whats it called again ? oh yes snow   

 

 

 

[TROY]

Still too mild for any snowfall here, no snow fences up, the farmers always know. Still need a hard frost in the ground, otherwise any snow will soon melt on the warm land. Not been a lot of sunshine since that northerly blast, usually you get clear skies in Artic winds. We even have daffs in bloom now. Nature is a little topsy turvey. Soon be mid day then i can gey a little tipsey. Ha ha. Have a nice week everyone, stay safe and good health to you all.

[East Kent Snow Desert]

Being from East Kent, I'm as desperate for snow as anyone but I can't help think that if these showers coming in to the North East of England are still rain/sleet at best today, it seems very unlikely that a system from the west tomorrow is going to bear fruit for us, aside from the downs. That damn ECM getting our hopes up

Edited December 29, 2020 by Gazza

[pureasthedriven]

7 minutes ago, TROY said:

Still too mild for any snowfall here, no snow fences up, the farmers always know. Still need a hard frost in the ground, otherwise any snow will soon melt on the warm land. Not been a lot of sunshine since that northerly blast, usually you get clear skies in Artic winds. We even have daffs in bloom now. Nature is a little topsy turvey. Soon be mid day then i can gey a little tipsey. Ha ha. Have a nice week everyone, stay safe and good health to you all.

We’ve not been in arctic winds though. And I’ve beat you to it with the G&T

[Jackski4]

Could anyone please tell me what time the next harmonie update is?

 

thankies.