South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Nick F]

16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

My temps got to 3.1 then lifted to 3.3 now stationary due to the cloud deck.

Im guessing a slow decline once the PPN gets going & hoping for a transition around 1am...

Whats your thoughts?

Temps dropped rapidly when the rain cleared didn't they? Little wind across the SE now, northerly polar flow across the Channel undercutting the rain shield, cold air aloft quite deep above shallow surface layer with little warmth left from earlier maritime flow incursion as polar air mixes it out from the NW, so any heavy ppn is going easily drop the temperature by a few degrees through evaporative cooling. Only 2.3C here at Caterham-on-the-hill.

Edited December 3, 2020 by Nick F

[SMU]

Yeah sounds good ! Incoming PPN ! 

 

[Peter Roberts]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Temps dropped rapidly when the rain cleared didn't they? Little wind across the SE now, northerly polar flow across the Channel undercutting the rain shield, cold air aloft quite deep above shallow surface layer with little warmth left from earlier maritime flow incursion as polar air mixes it out from the NW, so any heavy ppn is going easily drop the temperature by a few degrees through evaporative cooling. Only 2.3C here at Caterham-on-the-hill.

Cold in the Valley also

[SMU]

Biggin Hill just hit 0c / 0c

[Eskimo]

Seems like the GFS has caught on as well - band of precip slightly further south by midday tomorrow. 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Biggin Hill just hit 0c / 0c

Didnt expect that low of a temperature down south!!surely bodes well for you guys and further north

Edited December 3, 2020 by sheikhy

[Snipper]

Stansted Airport a few minutes ago 

[Snipper]

Southend Airport

[Daniel*]

25 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

My temps got to 3.1 then lifted to 3.3 now stationary due to the cloud deck.

Im guessing a slow decline once the PPN gets going & hoping for a transition around 1am...

Whats your thoughts?

UKV suggests widespread transition 2am.

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Stansted Airport a few minutes ago 

Trust you to give good news Snips  

[Kentspur]

35 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

My temps got to 3.1 then lifted to 3.3 now stationary due to the cloud deck.

Im guessing a slow decline once the PPN gets going & hoping for a transition around 1am...

Whats your thoughts?

Interesting only a few miles North east of you the same 0.2c rise here too by the thames 4.4- 4.6c so its around 1.3c warmer here than there which is probably about right given your elevation 

[alexisj9]

Just had a very heavy shower, so heavy was expecting it to start flashing.

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Trust you to give good news Snips  

Ah but look at Southend. As it is more Maritime (ok estuary) based you might think it would be warmer. 

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKV suggests widespread transition 2am.

Its now actually the same as Harmonie!

[pinball wizard]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its now actually the same as Harmonie!

You got any charts showing this?

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its now actually the same as Harmonie!

Is the current radar similar to the harmonie model for the same time?

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its now actually the same as Harmonie!

That leaves me out then. Goes to my west.

[SMU]

18z Harmonie up & running...

The most eagerly awaited run since the 12z Harmonie

!

[Met4Cast]

Dew points are the sticking point at the moment, far too warm.

[Freeze]

Temp dropped to 4.1c earlier now climbed Up to 5.1c hope it drops again!

[bluebell]

No sign of anything remotely wintry this end, rain, rain and more rain!

[Eskimo]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

18z Harmonie up & running...

The most eagerly awaited run since the 12z Harmonie

!

It strangely still hasn't got this one right though. Radar shows precips over isel of wight - no sign of that on the Harmonie. Strange. 

[johnc1106]

Can someone post the Harmonie charts and/or animation please?

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, johnc1106 said:

Can someone post the Harmonie charts and/or animation please?

[WxHerts]

Harmonie remains consistent right up to the finish line, even if its scenario was to completely flop (which is looking increasingly unlikely) it deserves credit for its consistency.