South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Blessed Weather]

What a miserable, gloomy day. Temp stuck at 10C for the last few hours now, no wind and the light rain and drizzle over my area is pepping up. Later on the frontal rain that moved out into the N. Sea overnight (which has also pepped up) is expected to do an about turn and come back in. Oh well, better tomorrow.

Rainfall 03.15:  09.25:

[Captain Shortwave]

Turning brighter here as the frontal cloud drifts away a little. Though the forecast suggests this won’t be for long.

[Neilsouth]

Another complete balls up forecast today! That rain was meant to stay in the North Sea and not come into the South East until later. Instead it's come all the way in and messed up my plans of day out in the fields 

[Neilsouth]

Look how wrong it was!

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, Neilsouth said:

Look how wrong it was!

True!...I was thinking the same thing when I watched the 1.30pm lunchtime weather today. Rule of thumb never put too much trust in positioning of rainfall graphics particularly when it's not Atlantic oriented.

Fairly abhorrent out there today and cold, not at all surprised how it's gone from dry to wet in a week or so. Approximately 75mm of rain here so far this month.

Edited October 13, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 hours ago, Neilsouth said:

Another complete balls up forecast today! That rain was meant to stay in the North Sea and not come into the South East until later. Instead it's come all the way in and messed up my plans of day out in the fields 

balls up again ay, dry here until around 1pm, but that other lot was meant to move down the NW and into Wales, but no, hit here again

[thunderpants]

Crikey oh O'reilly, that law of choas is a pain the bum sometimes. North Norfolk forecast for last week was supposed to be terrible, yet we had a much better week than forecast with some good spells of sunshine especially on the wednesday. After 45 years of weather watching it never seems to amaze me how often our learned friends and there super computers get it wrong in such a short time scale, well, i suppose thats the law of chaos for you.

Edited October 13, 2020 by thunderpants

[Eagle Eye]

Edited October 13, 2020 by hamilton and weather fan 1

[Eagle Eye]

Today's timelapse

[Hotspur62]

Just a miserable day today in Locksbottom.only hit a maximum of 10.3 today and that was about 10.30 in the early hint of brightness that quickly descended into dark skies and steady persistent rain from late morning which is still falling as I type.most of the afternoon the temperature was between 8.5-9 degrees, a good 4-5 degrees below the average for this time of year!.Next 3-5 days look cool but hopefully mainly dry and after that far too much uncertainty to make a definitive call-atm best guess would be slightly milder but more unsettled for this part of the world.

[Eagle Eye]

Miserable day here too mainly dry and cloudy

[tinybill]

Miserable day  rain  most  of the day  here  in ipswich

[Daniel*]

Unbelievable a further 11mm much more than I anticipated, it was mostly drizzle that soaked everything but also heavier bursts from Thames/Estuary,  also came earlier, and now on 125mm in 13 days that is nuts. Had maximum of 10.2°C the coolest in a very long time. 

Edited October 13, 2020 by Daniel*

[thunderpants]

Clear at the moment with the crescent moon and venus looking splended together.

[Blessed Weather]

Netwx Extra hi res radar rainfall totals for yesterday (Tues 13th) showing the soggy weather in the SE corner:

Anyone else looking at recent synoptics and thinking 'if only' all this weather was happening a bit later into winter? Wow, we would have had some good snowfall totals. Today is another example, with a cold NE'ly airstream blowing heavy showers in off the North Sea and setting up 'streamers'. As a snow lover I hope recent synoptics aren't replaced with a zonal westerly pattern as we move into winter.

Euro4 Weds: nice Thames streamer:

Edited October 14, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Tweek.

[lottiekent]

25 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Netwx Extra hi res radar rainfall totals for yesterday (Tues 13th) showing the soggy weather in the SE corner:

Anyone else looking at recent synoptics and thinking 'if only' all this weather was happening a bit later into winter? Wow, we would have had some good snowfall totals. Today is another example, with a cold NE'ly airstream blowing heavy showers in off the North Sea and setting up 'streamers'. As a snow lover I hope recent synoptics aren't replaced with a zonal westerly pattern as we move into winter.

Euro4 Weds: nice Thames streamer:

Always! Ended up with over 30mm of rain again yesterday,  A good snow dumping if only it was a good 2 months later!

[Sarahgreatchart]

Hello looking for advice

 

does anyone know the likely theme of the weather on November 4th 

Trying to organise an outdoor party of 6 for my girls 

 

cold and dry is fine 

 

but if it appears a wave of wetness is on the cards it’ll help me decide against! 

it’ll be TN26 area (kent/East Sussex border)

Edited October 14, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Location added

[Blessed Weather]

48 minutes ago, Sarahgreatchart said:

Hello looking for advice

does anyone know the likely theme of the weather on November 4th 

(Snipped)

Hi Sarah,
Welcome to Netweather and the SE weather forum. I'm afraid it's too far out to be able to forecast what the weather will be doing on Nov 4th. We have access to some of the best forecasting models available, such as the USA Global Forecasting System (GFS), but at best these computer models only forecast rainfall out to 384 hours or 16 days (and at that range forecasts are subject to enormous chops and changes). So looking at today's GFS run we can only see a forecast out to 30th October, as I've highlighted in the example below. We can usually get a better feel for weather type at 10 days out, but really need to wait until 5 or 6 days out to start gaining better confidence. And even then, confidence in the accuracy of a rainfall forecast for a particular postcode at a particular time of day would be fairly low.

But please come back nearer the time and one of us will do our best to give you a forecast.

Chart link: https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=gfs;sess=3948fe7295e70c45eac289ff60b2f3fa

 

[Methuselah]

Just had another torrential rain shower from off the North Sea... If the precip's like this in October, what might it do, come December... with uppers of -11C!

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Just had another torrential rain shower from off the North Sea... If the precip's like this in October, what might it do, come December... with uppers of -11C!

I know this is tongue in cheek  I wonder how many days we will see in the entire upcoming winter with Precipitation coming from that direction? my bet is now many.

[Blazerblue]

Yippee more torrential rain. Not sure what happened to the supposed sunshine we were forecast. 

[thunderpants]

Gone very dark and very windy all of a sudden here, with some very heavy rain thrown in, would not be suprised to see a flash of lightning.

[Froze were the Days]

Absolutely hammering down here with some hail, and the rainfall total keeps going up!

[Daniel*]

42 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Absolutely hammering down here with some hail, and the rainfall total keeps going up!

Bingo, imagine if this October was during a bitterly cold January, it would have been snowiest period ever. 

[thunderpants]

Not sure about that Daniel*, 1963 springs to mind, my inlaws got married in Feb 63 and was filmed in 8mm film showing huge snow drifts around the village and church, i know most of the snow fell on boxing day but lasted for some into march, also 47 was epic.