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Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21


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Siberian snow at last. Looks like an area larger than the UK just got dumped on  

Noticed we didn't have Snow & Ice thread yet for this year, one of my favourites of the year. So here's the latest offering:  

Well, well, well.... Checked out US NIC early, as I am out in the morning....  Snow cover -    small reductions in both East and West. But Its an absolute killer for ice extent.....

Posted Images

A few charts for 20th October showing the snow to advance quite far west out of Siberia, will be interesting to monitor and would be a nice early bit of cold air to the east should we be lucky enough to benefit from it 🧐 5CF3084D-4846-4117-9BD6-563EB225A571.thumb.png.4276831ad07d2e386f37d22f803e7677.png767E7217-79EE-48FA-8308-2FD08817BBF4.thumb.png.f6ded37e0a10300270aa83844e046375.pngAAD11936-2BDE-4549-9EAD-E83D44AF761B.thumb.png.a71921ec4baaccd0cca0581d968a28ef.png

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NSIDC sea ice area dropped below 2012 yesterday, to lowest on record for the date.
Extent is just 63k above 2012, the closest it's been since the beginning of August. As 2012 puts on 380k extent over the next 3 days, we will be lowest on record tomorrow and could end up lowest by close to 1/4 of a million km2 by early next week.

What's bad news for the ice may be good for snow though. All that extra open water could enhance snowfall over Siberia.

SnowAnim.thumb.gif.1341dc5059a8ab543af3344287b26cfd.gif

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Another good day for snow, both in Siberia and Canada.

Yesterday -

image.thumb.png.bef44a71fb4dbb2794642e368bfef5c3.png

 

Today  -

image.thumb.png.216491447fce4e5c14a0b70a264b4ee8.png

 

For sea ice we saw an average increase in extent, yesterday (+58K Km2)  in total -  still in 2nd place.

Studying the charts above (zooming) it looks as if a general expansion of the sea ice has now started, 

The Beaufort bite (hole) is now rapidly infilling, and the latest charts shows that cold will spread across into North America and most of Siberia by midweek. 

The future of increased snow cover looks assured. Ice growth is more questionable and will now depend upon the meteo conditions in the Arctic circle. Clear skies (anticyclonic) conditions will lead to quickly dropping temperatures as the polar night takes hold. 

Recent Arctic forecasts have been rapidly changing over the last few days with some exceptional charts appearing,  with as yet no real WAA hitting the current sea ice polar extent...... Impacts on the rate of sea ice growth is not yet clear.                     

MIA

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On 11/10/2020 at 08:04, Griff said:

These really are useful tools to have access to. 

How are people saving GIFs? On my phone I can only save single images. Are you downloading a sequence and then compiling? 

Ta. 

APPS.ECMWF.INT

 

20201011065835-061d407d0b754d2f5584a278fbb64364250ff1c0.png

20201011065908-4868173dcad1012549ce6695f86c7e3ee3dfc12a.png

Download the individual images and make a gif somewhere like ezgif.

Also, NSIDC area and extent, and ADS/JAXA extent now all lowest on record.

NSIDC_10to11.thumb.jpg.05d1a2f0acc6b8d31271926bd99f95c9.jpg

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10 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

More big gains yesterday. Snow at the Urals by the weekend?

image.thumb.png.f88d5b6816106a6e1f156c2a33bc0b01.pngimage.thumb.png.6fb57aba40d1c5e283433152cd87f80f.png

Also large gains in snow cover in North America..

Expect a large increase in sea ice cover on Masie when I report later.

 

MIA

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Well re the above....

I am shocked...... Wow                 Masie extent has increased by no less than 267K Km2 today.

Increases in just about all arctic sea areas including some that previously showed zero. (ESS, Laptev, Kara and Hudson)

Masie up to 5071K Km2 today  (+343K Km2) since I last reported.

Can this large gain  have been caused by a 'sieve' type coastal adjustment? Tomorrow will tell, although I was not aware that Masie used this method of calculation.

It would seems as though the Arctic has managed  to drain/lose  much  of the summer heat now. 

Masie total extent - 5071K Km2 now in  3rd lowest position. Masie (for interest) has not made it to number 1 this refreeze season.(yet!) .  

Individual areas showed, not totally unsurprisingly, but large increases in Beaufort (+25K), Central(+34K), Greenland(+47K)  and Baffin(+23K).

However, Chukchi expanded by (+22K)  (including along the coastline just east of Barrow);  ESS (+30k) and Laptev(+27K) expanded mainly along the Russian coastline. although the New Siberian Islands (well out to sea) also froze out; and even Kara showed signs of life (+1K).

The most surprising was that of Hudson(+8K), and from the expansion in the Canadian Archipelago of +50K K2.   

As I suggested a couple of weeks ago might happen, the ice seems to be expanding out from the coastline,rather than closing in from the north.  Is this to be a feature again this year, and is it a feature of the 'new' Arctic?

It is to be seen whether the weather conditions in the Arctic continue to allow the current  rapid ice expansion to continue.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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An early morning view of US NIC-

Further snow gains in Siberia and North America.

Ice pack increased again in several areas, possible slight restrictions in some of the coastal areas.

Masie will later confirm (or deny)  yesterdays outlier.

Should be a more moderate increase judging by inspection.

Yesterday/today -

 image.thumb.png.9e4af138a48b49afc439cce1c5e29ade.png   image.thumb.png.1dbc9ecb2323a77ea7db40778362ef69.png 

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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10 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

MIA

the models forecast a lot of Widespread deep cold within the arctic And punching well south around the NH.  And if right, there should be shedloads of Snow gain over next 2 weeks.

 

BFTP

Indeed 😁 again here’s the charts for the next 10 days looks like impressive coverage ❄️ A3AAC23F-D0F6-477C-854F-839D37853D80.thumb.png.a4ed3b321f877585c913d436feacc9bc.pngD828088D-66B2-4F33-81D4-49E6EB95497D.thumb.png.262b698f33f07ff65139f71ffd5cbac6.png

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Masie sea ice extent report.

Total 5176K Km2  an increase of 105KKm2 on yesterday and still in third place.

The recently frozen sea coastal ice remains in situ. So it looks as if yesterdays sudden increase was valid, and not just an aberration of the models..

Beaufort (+21K) continued its increase   and looks like connecting with N America shortly.

Chukchi (+25K) and ESS (+9K) are still growing....

Laptev (+12K) - its coastline ice still  increases.

Elsewhere a small loss in Baffin(-2K), but increases in Greenland(+25K) , CAA(+4K) and Central(+8K) complete the positive outlook.

Temperatures are now falling in the Arctic from their above average values seen so far.

image.thumb.png.902925bc9359029345c72bf34b2b4562.png

Expect the ice to continue is more rapid momentum of the last few days.

MIA 

 

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2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Indeed 😁 again here’s the charts for the next 10 days looks like impressive coverage ❄️ A3AAC23F-D0F6-477C-854F-839D37853D80.thumb.png.a4ed3b321f877585c913d436feacc9bc.pngD828088D-66B2-4F33-81D4-49E6EB95497D.thumb.png.262b698f33f07ff65139f71ffd5cbac6.png

One factor amongst many and in itself has limited bearing for increasing chance of colder outbreaks in our winter thanks to feedback loops is the rate of snow cover increase in Russia second half of October. A sudden rapid formation into scandi is the signal needed. Last time this happened was 2012. Forecasts suggesting something comparable.

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12 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Expect the ice to continue is more rapid momentum of the last few days.

MIA 

 

A possible change is being discussed for the Arctic towards the weekend.

It looks as if the colder weather in Siberia is about to mix with the Arctic air to produce a vigorous elongated/flat area of low pressure. all along the Russian coastline.

IF this happens we can expect very strong easterly winds blowing firstly through the SOO, warming up into  the  Baring Straits, across the ESS and Laptev and even into Kara and the Barents Sea.

Will it bring very mild conditions with it, or will it suck up the new found Siberian cold?

I seem to remember something very similar occurred last year, and after a mild start it turned cold across these areas.. producing the larger than average gains in the Barents Sea. 

 

image.thumb.png.ce5c85b222df2d4da66075abfbbc75f3.pngimage.thumb.png.8ec5d42e51ec63b8c90662535243fc74.pngimage.thumb.png.0fa944b76508112db9d2ced0f9b727b1.png                  

Should be very good for further enhancements of snow in Russia.

MIA

(A bit like the frequently changing forecasts for the UK, isnt it !)... 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Masie today...

Put back into its kennel with just a 25K Km2 increase. (way below the 100k Km2 normal).

Total sea ice extent 5201K KM2 dropped to 2nd lowest behind 2012, with last year just 30K Km2 in front.

2012 had a series of large advances for the next 4 days which will show 2020 where to go. However 2019 looks more susceptible to be overtaken.

Beaufort continues its growth (+22K), with Chukchi(+11K) following its lead. 

ESS(-1K) dropped a bit, but Laptev (+6K) still continued with its coastal freezing..

Greenland(+1K) and Baffin(+6K) gained but the CAA dropped (-6K), and Central lost  (-9K).

All in all a day for those predicting  a poor year.

http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/latest/4km/masie_all_r00_4km.png

        

2075615051_masie_all_r00_4km(1).thumb.png.1ad2c28eb01e18f715605b1ce85f5aa5.png

Click on the image and expansion will occur. Then locate the  Arctic for detail view..

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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GFS wanting to build deep and entrenched cold over Siberia.  Lots of LP before deep FI a large HP starts to build.  Be interesting to see where we are come 2 weeks, but with cold spilling well south and lots of LPs I’m anticipating we’ll be in a good place as regards to the October Snow index.  Very interesting synoptics content over us too, LPs on very southerly tilt....

 

BFTP. 

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Yep BFTP..

Snow cover expanded deep into Siberia and reached the Pacific coastline today.

However N.A.  fell slightly.

Ice has expanded rapidly again, particularly in the Chukchi and Beaufort regions  after yesterdays glitch..

image.thumb.png.ed0d7ed9d1d28c734578b535898dcd9e.pngimage.thumb.png.5ccf59fa8a9b51bbf8fc3400b6aae948.png   

  

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Looks like the positive gains in October could finish on a high note. The extended EC from last night for Oslo indicating mean dam to be between 550-555 - represent green/yellow colors on meteociel chart. Quite akin to what latest GFS 6z indicates for last days of October. This will push a little trough to western Russia on the back of that blocking high, making sure the snow cover advances to western Russia. 

RX67XhV7.jpg

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Arctic sea ice coverage is back to record low values for all the main long term measures (both area and extent).
Of particular note is the lack of new ice formation around the Siberian sea's, causing surface temperature records to be smashed, but also providing plenty of moisture for snow.

Below is a comparison of sea ice growth for the first 16 days of October with 2012.
There's a larger and slightly better quality version on the twitter page too.

AnimationSmall.thumb.gif.baab766c97064ef99e3fad725bd01338.gif

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