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Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21


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The acceleration of snow in Siberia continues at a pace (which of course it should be doing at this time of year - nice to see all the same!).

image.thumb.png.fd230c2250616833e6bd5ecf7ba001c3.pngimage.thumb.png.ecf5f9952512314d65e3c231c028219d.png   

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Siberian snow at last. Looks like an area larger than the UK just got dumped on  

Noticed we didn't have Snow & Ice thread yet for this year, one of my favourites of the year. So here's the latest offering:  

Well, well, well.... Checked out US NIC early, as I am out in the morning....  Snow cover -    small reductions in both East and West. But Its an absolute killer for ice extent.....

Posted Images

I think we should continue to see gains up to mid month without any real Westward progression. After mid month we may see quite a rapid Westward progression if current modelling is near the money.

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More gains in snow coverage in Siberia. Southwards in the west, northwards in the East.

image.thumb.png.408c569f65a633a3c709d1fd16cf2269.png

 Have just collected the wife from hospital  (yesterday) and have now more time to update the sea ice situation.

The last week has shown an increasing trend after a very mixed first few days of refreeze.

Whilst Jaxa shows a steady increase Masie has suddenly spurted ahead with 2 century increases in the last 2 days.

Masie situation as per 4/10/2020 -

Total 4573K Km2 (2nd lowest) with increases on the last 2 days of +122K and +111K.

Beaufort (+34K and +13K); Chukchi( +33K and +2K); ESS(+2K and +32K); Barents(-1K and +36K); Greenland (-1K and +12K); CAA  (+21K and +4K) and finally CAB(+25K and +15K).

So generalised increases are now underway in the Arctic sea ice although delayed by about 1 week from previous years.

MIA

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Large southbound increase in Siberian snow cover this morning.

 image.thumb.png.a80270d05e05ed4a16cb8f4f1dd7c4b2.png

 

Also Alaska has also seen snowfall over the last 2 days.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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35 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Large southbound increase in Siberian snow cover this morning.

 image.thumb.png.a80270d05e05ed4a16cb8f4f1dd7c4b2.png

 

Also Alaska has also seen snowfall over the last 2 days.

MIA

The increase is about the size of western europe - in a week !!

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1 hour ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

The increase is about the size of western europe - in a week !!

And looking at the models that will only continue to increase over the next 2 weeks....at some rate too.

 

BFTP

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A little sea ice forecast.

Looks like a strong dipole will continue, with winds compressing the sea ice along the Chukchi and Russian facing edges, and spreading it out towards the Atlantic (animation below).

AnimationECM.thumb.gif.bfaa63f32689fdf49a86e18b0ff27dad.gif


This shows up very nicely in the CMEMS sea ice forecasts to the 13th (processed myself, shown below) which predicts, amazingly, further significant losses along the Chukchi, ESS and (to a lesser extent) the Laptev ice edge. Gains in the other regions barely enough to produce growth overall, in what should be a phase of rapidly accelerating sea ice increases.

FinalCMEM6to13.thumb.jpg.397d0f17327838ed1a8a19f3d107c489.jpg

I'd expect area and extent to be below 2012 next week.

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Very useful free output now available from the ECMWF freebies for snow cover forecast - usual caveats apply about the below charts, being a single operational run etc.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/medium-snow-sic?base_time=202010070000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202010070000

Looks like plenty of snow to come south of 60N further east into Asia, we could do with more of a push westwards for the second half of the month

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1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

A little sea ice forecast.

Looks like a strong dipole will continue, with winds compressing the sea ice along the Chukchi and Russian facing edges, and spreading it out towards the Atlantic (animation below).

AnimationECM.thumb.gif.bfaa63f32689fdf49a86e18b0ff27dad.gif


This shows up very nicely in the CMEMS sea ice forecasts to the 13th (processed myself, shown below) which predicts, amazingly, further significant losses along the Chukchi, ESS and (to a lesser extent) the Laptev ice edge. Gains in the other regions barely enough to produce growth overall, in what should be a phase of rapidly accelerating sea ice increases.

FinalCMEM6to13.thumb.jpg.397d0f17327838ed1a8a19f3d107c489.jpg

I'd expect area and extent to be below 2012 next week.

How do we stack up Vs 2016 which stalled during Autumn.

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2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

How do we stack up Vs 2016 which stalled during Autumn.

To start with, 2016 had 800,000 km2 (17%) more extent than we have now.
So even if we added extent at 100,000 km2 per day, we still wouldn't catch 2016 this month (or next month either!).

The extent increase for the first 6 days of October was 206,000km2 (smallest increase on record) in 2016. We've added 301,000km2 so far this year (5th smallest increase)

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CMEMS sea ice forecast shows almost no ice growth over the next week, at a time when ice growth should be rapidly accelerating. If it come off then record lows, and by huge margins, should be expected soon.

Here's an animation I put together of a comparison between 2012 and 2020, with AMSR2 data to the 7th for 2020, and CMEMS sea ice forecast for the 8th to 14th.

AnimationSmall.thumb.gif.ef97fef2f8d5a5f4f6814b2adeef07a9.gif

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Larger south western increases in Siberian snow cover reported today.

Looks like it is moving into catch up mode.

Sea ice has remained variable according to Masie.

The last 3 days have seen an increase up to 4542K Km2(+29K Km2), but this has shown 2 days of small declines followed by an 80K increase today

Gains were in Central(+65K Km2), Chukchi (+6K) and ESS(+7K), whilst Beaufort(-24K) and Barents(-16K) were losers.

Let's hope that BFTV's reported forecast above proves incorrect .

This season up there  seems to be defying the weather forecasts, so we must watch and wait.

MIA 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Euro generally shows the russian blocking persisting but becoming less of a feature allowing the cold to spread west through the recent runs.

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Ah my beloved snow and ice thread.

I shall begin as I normally do.

A comparison of 2020 to last year.

Ice was much further towards Scandi this time last year, but had not moved as far north. Interesting to see that clear blue between the shelf and the West of Scandinavia.

image.thumb.png.b4f913ed779510bb47671bf49191982c.pngimage.thumb.png.168478a39437ab134716b8d70f39121d.png

 

If we make a comparison to the famous 2010 the ice looks much less healthy this year.

image.thumb.png.9017a41f6b1f9ee1a0542f6aa49e61e3.png

 

 

 

 

Edited by throwoff
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2 hours ago, throwoff said:

Ah my beloved snow and ice thread.

I shall begin as I normally do.

A comparison of 2020 to last year.

Ice was much further towards Scandi this time last year, but had not moved as far north. Interesting to see that clear blue between the shelf and the West of Scandinavia.

image.thumb.png.b4f913ed779510bb47671bf49191982c.pngimage.thumb.png.168478a39437ab134716b8d70f39121d.png

 

If we make a comparison to the famous 2010 the ice looks much less healthy this year.

image.thumb.png.9017a41f6b1f9ee1a0542f6aa49e61e3.png

 

 

 

 

Yes, the ice looks rather pitiful this year, doesn't it?!

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It's not quite the pretty picture of snowy Scottish hills but I saw some pink pixels on the radar indicating the first snow on Lake District mountains a couple of hours ago.

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Some snow settling earlier today in the Scottish Highlands:

Ej4A3aKXsAAXo8G.thumb.jpg.0a11cbc4cfab98a77420b2eaae22f5c0.jpg

Thanks @Daniel* for the pic :spiteful:

Edited by Zak M
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2 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, the ice looks rather pitiful this year, doesn't it?!

It's struggling big time and will continue to do so. Lot of warm air over Chukchi and East Siberian Sea predicted for the next week so we can't expect much improvement.

 

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19 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

It's struggling big time and will continue to do so. Lot of warm air over Chukchi and East Siberian Sea predicted for the next week so we can't expect much improvement.

 

Want some good news???

Masie today has shown a century increase with an increase in nearly all sea areas including unexpectedly in Laptev..

 

Total for day 8/10/2020 -  4670K Km2, increase of 128K Km2.

Beaufort (+33K); Chukchi(+6K0; ESS(-9K);  Laptev(+3K); Barents(+23K); Greenland(+17K); CAA(+33K) and finally Central(+21K).

The ice maps on NIC show a  fairly general outward growth. 

 image.thumb.png.2176768939d995258d6b859fb9ce7c3f.png                                     and the latest      

image.thumb.png.34f9e5afffd484d36761256a81caeaa9.png   

 

MIA

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