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Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21


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1 hour ago, Don said:

Yes, I quite liked Ian Brown and like you say a character!  He seemed to be on to something regarding no more widespread in England for quite a while until we had winter 2009/10! 

Nice one mate. well said as if.

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Siberian snow at last. Looks like an area larger than the UK just got dumped on  

Noticed we didn't have Snow & Ice thread yet for this year, one of my favourites of the year. So here's the latest offering:  

Well, well, well.... Checked out US NIC early, as I am out in the morning....  Snow cover -    small reductions in both East and West. But Its an absolute killer for ice extent.....

Posted Images

Great animation BFTV...

Slow but steady.

 

Masie extent today..

Total 8,986K an increase of 62K Km2 still in second lowest position.

With an average increase of about 65K Km2 we are keeping parallel to the chart for 2012, though 2012 did have a poor spell coming up.

Area increases remained as per the last few days.

But another major loss of (-36K) in the CAB  really cut back on the ongoing ice growth trend. This anomaly seems destined to  continue into the next week, as low pressure moves across the area heading for the Pole itself.  Could it be the first sign of a fledgling Vortex?

However there was better news  from other areas with gains in Chukchi (+12K),  ESS (+22K), Laptev (+5K) , Kara (+14K) and Barents (+3K) - the latter in the East of Svalbard. Despite the problems in the CAB,  Greenland (+21K) expanded as the centre of the low moved NE allowing Northerlies to move into the area.

North America - still a small loss in Baffin (-1K), but Hudson now looks set up for a good refreeze (+23K), particularly as ice is now forming out in the middle of the Bay.

The other peripheral oceans are now also starting their refreeze with Bering (+5K) with ice freezing in both the Alaskan shores and the Pacific.  SOO, also showed more freeze in the sheltered bays.

 

Any 'normal' ice freeze in the peripherals will keep the rate of growth above average (assuming growth resumes in the CAB , Barents and Kara). 

It is now looking as though the 'dip' in ice extent growth  (following the extreme growth at the start of Nov ), is now beginning to  be negated as the peripheral seas begin their refreeze roughly to schedule (on average). The North American side ahead and the Pacific about a week behind normal..

image.thumb.png.1e1b8a1695372b4da2000950204dcfe5.png      with thanks to ASIF.

 

In addition, we are now entering 'strange' territory with the total world sea ice situation.

With both the ongoing late high rate of growth in the Arctic and the later start of major melt in the Antarctic we can see have resulted in one of the latest peaks in the total world sea ice extent. Recent years are left trailing behind, as the ice reached the average levels for the 2010 decade..

image.thumb.png.942b6cd2e7b1e02d984a80a8cab196fb.png       Thanks to the ASIF.  

MIA 

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Masie for another day....   (plus some bits of interesting data)

Seems like my  prediction yesterday of the slightly reduced average growth days being over, as the peripheral seas start to takeover the running,  has already become true..

Masie extent total 9,171K Km2 an increase of 185K Km2 (average 65K Km2 for time of year) , still second but now close behind 2012 and the pack.   

The good news is that all the peripheral sea areas burst into life...

Hudson upper portion froze over. as far as  where I noticed the sea ice forming yesterday  (+68K), and Baffin restarted its march south (+35K) now the warmer air associated with last weeks low has moved over towards the pole (more on that later), and the very cold air over most of Northern Canada marches eastwards.

In addition in the pacific the SOO tripled  (+9K)  (but only to 13K in total🤔), and  Bering added another(+1K) after it kick started yesterday. 

Both now look ready for a good icing event as colder air has now spread from Alaska into the Bering area,

Elsewhere the Siberian seas just continued with an average melt rate (though Laptev is now just about full of surface ice).

Gains of (+3K) in Beaufort, (+38K) in Chukchi, (+21K) in the ESS and (+12K) in Laptev continued the ice gains above Siberia, But Kara fell (-47K) as the low moving across Svalbard dragged warmer air into the region. Most of the ice loss was adjacent to the coastline.

Barents however still managed a gain (+6K) as the northerlies behind the low started a freeze around the bays of Eastern Svalbard, and Jan Mayen Island. The same conditions also saw a (+20K) gain in the CAB  to continue the yo yo up there.  Greenland was mundane with a gain of just (+17K).

So an interesting day (and possibly a watershed day for extent!!,🤭sorry), with the peripheral seas about to help the ice extent increases.

Though we all realise this will all melt out again next spring.🙃

Half way through the month already and tomorrow (or Tuesday) we expect the half monthly PIOMAS volume reports.

For interest (and also comparison) -

 I will show the latest DMI charts 

image.thumb.png.4167235e05d4786394da4f340de09e75.png   Still showing ice volume in second position,and a growing central pool of ice.. 

 

But the PIOMAS comparison leads on to another very interesting table of data that has appeared on the ASIF concerning the PIOMAS volume data, and the trends over the last 20'ish years, showing ice gain over winter against ice loss in summer.

image.thumb.png.d37863a67bf66203ba459bb484aeef03.png

It shows clearly an increased tendency for ice loss, but also in the last few years that more ice is starting to be produced. 

Will this change continue and become a trend? 

Is this the new coastal ice effect starting to take hold?  Answers on a postcard, as I do not know.

MIA  

 

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Masie today....

Total 9241K Km2  am increase of (+70K) - still in second position, 

The increase is slightly above average despite a yo yo performance from Baffin (-17K).

Elsewhere freezing steadily now in Bering (+6K), and also SOO expanding along the coast  (+1K).

Hudson is going into rapid refreeze mode with (+44K),

In Siberian seas Chukchi (+28K) moved past Wrangel  Island (+28K), ESS (+3K) and Laptev (+6K). Kara stabilised with (+2K),

Barents (+2K) and Greenland cancelled each other out. CAB (-3K) was little changed.

 In essence an in between day, but still above average.

MIA 

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Sorry for a late Masie today. 

Masie Total extent 9,227K Km2, a surprise drop of (-14K Km2), so still in 2nd position.

Ice refreeze along the whole Arctic front halted.!!

Chukchi (-16K),  ESS (-2K), Laptev (0), Kara (-30K),  Barents (-2K), Greenland (-2K) and CAB (-28k).

However there were more gains in North America with Baffin(+46K), and Hudson (+19K).

The Pacific basin was static overall with Bering (+3K) and SOO (-3K).

Not a good day for ice, but with an uncertain, although more positive outlook.

MIA 

 

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, Beanz said:

You’ve stopped using the snow/ice graphics lately MiA....? 
 

 

 

 Sorry... NSIDC changed the Interface for their ice summary charts and I have just relocated them again.

image.thumb.png.42c32e03d5e68090f34ef8103fa78a57.pngimage.thumb.png.e0f8d21cab1940a38284027ab5ef66b2.png

 

I have also been looking into what is happening along the 'Atlantic ice front' this morning.

CR has just fallen down, so I cannot show a chart yet, I will do so when I can get back in again. 

Meantime, a chart form the ASIF showing what has been happening the last 4 days. (also see graphic below)

image.thumb.png.83c0d9b9868b0d4e303194d4eeda1976.png 

 

See the 4 day animation below, and watch how the costal ice has moved along the coastline. (thanks to ASIF)

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3299.0;attach=292121

 

and the weather outlook for many station right across the Arctic can be found in this link - 

https://en.allmetsat.com/weather-forecast/arctic.php?city=prince-patrick-island-ca-nt

 

By clicking on the red and yellow buttons displayed in the map  one can move all around the Arctic.

 

As you can see there is a lot of snowfall and strong winds expected over the whole Arctic over the next few days (and continuing from the current).

Snowfall is also forecast to spread westwards back across northern Russia towards Finland again over the next few days.

Before CR went down, I observed that the low pressure which entered the Arctic over last weekend, has positioned itself over the pole, with other low pressures forming in the Bering Straits and also the North Atlantic - which has led to a southerly or westerly strong/gale over the whole of the Russian coastline.  This has pushed the ice back eastwards along the Atlantic front., and where the winds are from the south (Ie Murmansk, and Kara) it has resulted in some coastal ice melting.  Although most movement/changes seems to result in compression further east.

Little general change is expected in the weather until after the weekend, when the lows are expected to weaken.

(Lets hope it is not the start of a strong PV this year!!)

All for now, back later with Masie and hopefully some C.R. for you. 

MIA      

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Latest PIOMAS data is out. 2020 is currently 2nd lowest, barely above 2016.

All.thumb.png.5298d121f9d521b984c2ec6eb1a43b73.png L30D.thumb.png.0e2aa4be1dd8da55cf31a00ddd2379f0.png

Looking at the regional differences, 2020 is quite far behind the 2 other lowest years in the Laptev Sea and in the Central Arctic. It has more in the Beaufort Sea though, and to a lesser extent, Kara and Baffin

ComparPIO.thumb.png.a90db422253d398069fad7fd749d9c14.png

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Masie today....  (plus C. R. and other info).

Similar to yesterday, but with one exception, as the ice continues to be under pressure from the strong winds moving across the Eastern Russian Arctic. 

Ice total 9243K Km2 an increase of just (+16K Km2). Still in second position.

The Russian seas all were remarkable for their lack of growth.

Beaufort (-2K), Chukchi (-9K), ESS (-1K), Laptev (-1K), and Kara (=26K) (that is (-56K)  in 2 days), but Barents is hanging in there with (-2K). Greenland (+22K) and CAB (+33K) grew as the wind changed direction behind the low pressure.

Baffin (-10K) and Hudson (+5K) balanced each other out.   So it was the CAB switch which saved another negative day.

CR now back up,  so I am posting todays charts for pressure, snow levels and average temperature  

image.thumb.png.8a923bb52c7396a7bd54e679a2499e2d.pngimage.thumb.png.bf45bc451088df4be1aa0562f6f93f6a.pngimage.thumb.png.ccab379be2fa851b09d3d2868128a160.png      

  

 Also the ones for 10 days time -

image.thumb.png.2c8a788205e9692a2c433c0157e5ef30.pngimage.thumb.png.b3d0a70db7e9210b74f81c06a2393866.pngimage.thumb.png.66ccc8236436e12e478f533d602168ba.png     

As can be seen, not too much change, but with widespread snowfall forecast for much of the Arctic, and with only a small southwards (towards Russia) movement of the Low pressure areas. (see my previous note for details). 

And here is another interesting fact  - that the Antarctic total of sea ice is the highest its been in all but 4 years of recorded history, at the moment (JAXA data). This is caused by a very slow reduction in the Antarctic this melting year, whilst we have been watching higher rates of increase in the Arctic. The amount of Antarctic ice is actually higher than the average for the 1980's. 

Whereas total worldwide sea ice has exceeded that for the average of the 2010 decade.(second graph). Thanks to ASIF.

image.thumb.png.706a980587fe6ed267b61c3a144c6f42.pngimage.thumb.png.6c671fbaeb2b1263e1c8ee4f1dcbffd6.png 

 

And this is despite the strange fact that according to CR we have huge positive anomalies in both the Arctic and the Antarctic at the moment.

 

image.thumb.png.ea79ed26da9a8c49cfc920650e2fbf65.png      and    image.thumb.png.3d9bd110435231ab12c85ae3ab66ceab.png   

Could it be that temperature is not the only variable in determining sea ice quantities?....

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
changed 'worldwide' to Antarctic for sea ice.
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The daily NSIDC extent remains 2nd lowest on record to the 18th, 594,000 km² above the lowest year, 2016. The last 5 days have seen substantial gains in Hudson Bay balanced by losses in the Kara sea, causing the centred 5 day mean increase to drop below average.

5daynGraph.thumb.png.e6d789ac93985a1c1fef6f0bfdc76704.png 5dayCA.thumb.png.4da600342433b2984b9952e4ce643379.png

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6 minutes ago, Norrance said:

A covering of snow quite widely in the Northern Isles, North Scotland and NE Scotland this morning is probably the first low lying snow in the UK this season. 

Sounds good.  Any photos?

Edited by Don
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3 hours ago, Don said:

Sounds good.  Any photos?

There are one or two Posted earlier showing a dusting around Aberdeen in the Scottish regional thread and I saw quite a number on twitter this morning from various parts of the North and Highlands.

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Late today for Masie...

Snow has back-tracked into Scandinavia again as snow becomes more and more enhanced into N Europe/Asia ..US/Canada under a renewed outbreak of cold and snow.

image.thumb.png.f760503424e2950643ec9b79bdc54bdb.pngimage.thumb.png.c3f3776013cf6e850c888fbf8a906ec6.png     

For yesterday,  Arctic Masie sea ice up to  9279KKm2 an increase of (+36K), now safely es consed in 2nd position, having lost ground in the last 3 days. 

The Russian front is still performing badly with the strong south westerly winds pushing the ice away.

Beaufort (0K) - however now full, Chukchi (-9K), ESS(-1K), Laptev(0) - also now full, Kara (+1K) and Barents(-1K).

Greenland(+5K) and Central(+20K) again continued to grow, whilst Baffin (-6K) fluttered around.

Hudson is now in growth mode (+26K), and Bering continued its early growth (+1K).

The charts above are the very latest for today (19/11) and show that, apart from Kara, most other areas have grown.

MIA 

 

 

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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14 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Late today for Masie...

Snow has back-tracked into Scandinavia again as snow becomes more and more enhanced into N Europe/Asia ..US/Canada under a renewed outbreak of cold and snow.

image.thumb.png.f760503424e2950643ec9b79bdc54bdb.pngimage.thumb.png.c3f3776013cf6e850c888fbf8a906ec6.png     

For yesterday,  Arctic Masie sea ice up to  9279KKm2 an increase of (+36K), now safely es consed in 2nd position, having lost ground in the last 3 days. 

The Russian front is still performing badly with the strong south westerly winds pushing the ice away.

Beaufort (0K) - however now full, Chukchi (-9K), ESS(-1K), Laptev(0) - also now full, Kara (+1K) and Barents(-1K).

Greenland(+5K) and Central(+20K) again continued to grow, whilst Baffin (-6K) fluttered around.

Hudson is now in growth mode (+26K), and Bering continued its early growth (+1K).

The charts above are the very latest for today (19/11) and show that, apart from Kara, most other areas have grown.

MIA 

 

 

 

Nice to see some snow over Scandinavia during the last few days.

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A week of NSIDC extent changes
Weekly change is +361,000 km² (81-10 avg: 456,000 km²)
Started 2nd lowest, finished 2nd lowest.
Largest gains in Hudson Bay followed by the Atlantic edge, mixed changes in Baffin and Chukchi Seas, and a large loss in the Kara Sea.

AnimationFull.thumb.gif.f0ea3bb5d8aac947a3081746a3333be9.gif

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Thanks BFTV...Always look forward to your graphic.

Today has been a whopper for ice...

The charts I posted over night are still current for snow cover, perhaps the snow has reduced slightly around the Aleutian Islands in Alaska. 

Also as I suggested last night. the sea ice seemed to be in strike back mode, except for Kara. 

This has been confirmed by the latest data from Masie.

Masie Total extent 9514K Km2  a very large increase of (+235K Km2), with a 'normal' average at about 40K Km2 for today.

Still second but halved the gap once again on last year which had a hiatus about now.  

The peripheral sea areas all burst into life Barents (+7K), Greenland (+5K), Baffin (-4K) and especially Hudson (+100K), (with Foxe basin having a go at filling up, and freezing in the upper half of the actual basin). SOO gained (+12K) and Bering (+5K) both improved and look as if a fast freeze is imminent. 

The Atlantic front started to move southwards again with CAB (Central) up (+53K) as it menaces the outer Siberian islands again, Chukchi (+4K), ESS (+5K), Laptev(0), Kara (+5K), The latter despite a large melt along the coast, but the main pack expended back into the area again to more than make up any of  todays losses there, Beaufort lost (-3K), but is basically full now.

A bit of interest to watch for on the current status of Arctic Sea Ice-

Day in the Year in which ice exceeded 10,000.000 K Km2  for the last 10 years.  Today (yesterday's data)  is day 324.

Year         Day

2019        326

2018        321

2017        322

2016        333

2015        315

2014        312

2013        316

2012        324

2011        322

2010        320       

MIA   

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