Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21

[Midlands Ice Age]

Good increase in snow cover in Europe again.

Even some snow can be seen in the UK!!!

 

Masie extent update for the last 3 days.

Latest total is 13,1929K Km2, up by 211K Km2  (increases of +56K, +95K and +62K) - all are above average for todays date of 40K Km2. 

This year is now in 3rd lowest in the 16 year record in front of 2017 and 2018.

Areas have seen large variations, particularly in Kara (-130K) and Barents (-68K, -19K and +80K) where mild  south westerly winds  passing through caused large ice front changes.

Elsewhere there was growth in the outer sea areas. with SOO(+72K), Bering (+85K) in the East, with Baffin (+99K) leading in the West. The Central area started to recover around Svalbard (+51K) as the main polar ice field moved southwards after 7 days of movement northwards.

The small sea areas were generally positive, but from a low base, with Baltic (+5K) and the Yellow sea (+7K).

 

Volume at the end of 2020  showed the second or third lowest according to the DMI chart below,

The point of interest for the NH Arctic is the impact of the SSW, which was officially called for 4/1/2021.

We normally have to wait a little while for the downwelling to cause major impacts.

I expect those to be seen from the end of next week.

It currently looks as if sea ice in the Barents and Kara will rapidly catch up with the averages. 

The 2018 beast from the East caused a large volume increase at the end of the ice growth season. 

We will see....

 MIA  

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 07/01/2021 at 13:24, summer blizzard said:

Does ice usually get to northern Japan.

Not really - It is about 300miles out in the Pacific.

I have been through sea ice just  outside of Beijing though, back in 2010..  

MIA

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Can't recall ever seeing Spanish snow pixels before?

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Snow in Texas !!

 

[summer blizzard]

Texan snow is not actually abnormal although it's a nice reflection of the lack of natural barriers to cold in the US.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Hi guys....

Thought it was time for an update -

Snow first of all.

   

Yesterdays                                                          Todays 

as can be seen snow has extended erratically in Europe and is now making it into France.

Will it be here by the weekend?

Sea Ice -

The above charts show a movement south of the pack ice, and extensive increases in the Pacific sector.

As can be seen is still low by historical standards, but temperatures into North West Russia are finally plummeting this morning.

Murmansk shows as -25C and Archangel -35C, St Petersburg at -11C and Moscow at -14C, so I expect any 'weakness' in the ice in Barents and particularly Kara to be soon sorted out.

The cold is slowly easing into Europe.

My Masie report for the last 4 days shows that extent has now increased up to 13,330K Km2. This is in fourth lowest position, after a volatile 4 days with changes of (+27K), (-23K), (+4K) and yesterday (+91K).

The latest JAXA data shows a century increase for today, and a movement up to 6th place in the lists there.

Area data gains have been recorded over the 4 days with the main  exception of Greenland (-56K), and Baffin (-26K), where ice is currently highly  volatile.

In The Pacific basin,  Bering (+55K) , SOO (+57K) and the Yellow Sea (+5K) all gained, as would be expected at this time of year.

The Russian front made strong recovery gains in Kara (+100K) and Barents started to expand again with (+29K).

I expect  strong performance here in the next few days as the SSW takes a firm grip in the area. 

In North America there was little change, and The Baltic nudged up (+2K). 

So an interesting position we have now reached, with quite fast sea ice extent gains having occurred (8%) faster than normal this freeze year (from a low base) - that amounts to nearly 800K km2 - and with a very strong SSW already having caused displacement of the Polar Vortex and now we see a forecast split of the remaining section.

It is going to be interesting to monitor if these changes have any impact on the sea ice.

All this occurring at a time of 'low' irregular solar output, and a La Nina which is forecast to stay around for several months.

I will be back later with todays report and to show charts of temps and extent across the World and Northern Hemisphere, together with a look at Ozone and the volume of sea ice.

MIA     

 

Edited January 13, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

As promised earlier,  todays update from Masie, and a more general look.

Well if this is the first real day of the downwelling caused by the SSW -   it certainly had a 'magic' effect on the sea ice.

Todays Masie sea ice extent increased by nearly a double century against a normal for the date of about 40K Km2.

Todays Masie extent total is 13,519KKm2 an increase of 189K Km2, now in 8th lowest position in front of 2006, 2007, 2011, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 - (up from 4th).

General increases in all areas with Kara (+12K), Barents (+49K) due to northerlies becoming established. Greenland (+13K) and Baffin (+44K) recovered all previous losses. In the East -  Bering (+24K),  SOO(+46K) and the Yellow Sea (+5K), as the ice moved at towards the Aleutian Islands.

A fine start indeed to the changed conditions.

In terms of the volume, both PIOMAS and the DMI continue to show the long-term trend in 2nd lowest position (see below). Volume is currently being held down by the lack of ice in Barents and Kara. I can see this being resolved in the next few weeks as very cold air the north west of Russia seeps out into the Arctic.

  

 

Gains are also being reflected  in the Worldwide sea ice stats as shown below from the ASIF ,where it moved up to 10th place in the tables.  -

   

Ozone continues to increase over the Northern Hemisphere. The successive waves over the Urals are continuing to push Ozone into the Arctic stratosphere ensuring the continuation of the SSW which is now taking hold over the pole..

  

 

MIA

Edited January 13, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

On 11/01/2021 at 07:40, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Snow in Texas !!

 

Snow in northern Texas is not unusual though reports of up to 9 inches is a good amount. There has been at least 4 significant snow events there this winter, though, with records broken in October for both snow and temperature in two unusually early winter storm events. I don't think snow has made it to Houston yet this season, where I used to live many years ago. That would be unusual.  It snows there about once every 3 years and settles about 1 in 10, though recent years have seen more light instances. It snowed 3 times one winter and 2 times another around 17/18 and 18/19. I still have family in Texas. Snow is still a rare treat for them.

[Hotspur62]

4 hours ago, Aleman said:

Snow in northern Texas is not unusual though reports of up to 9 inches is a good amount. There has been at least 4 significant snow events there this winter, though, with records broken in October for both snow and temperature in two unusually early winter storm events. I don't think snow has made it to Houston yet this season, where I used to live many years ago. That would be unusual.  It snows there about once every 3 years and settles about 1 in 10, though recent years have seen more light instances. It snowed 3 times one winter and 2 times another around 17/18 and 18/19. I still have family in Texas. Snow is still a rare treat for them.

Looking at that map looks like a lot less of US covered compared to normal,especially in the NE and states just below Great Lakes.At least they did have that blockbuster event just before Xmas but certainly not been a cold winter for the Eastern half of the country yet..

 

[Aleman]

1 hour ago, Hotspur62 said:

Looking at that map looks like a lot less of US covered compared to normal,especially in the NE and states just below Great Lakes.At least they did have that blockbuster event just before Xmas but certainly not been a cold winter for the Eastern half of the country yet..

 

Great Lakes Ice cover for this week of each year tends to agree.

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTGL/20210111180000_CVCHDCTGL_0011406041.pdf

Edited January 14, 2021 by Aleman

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, Hotspur62 said:

Looking at that map looks like a lot less of US covered compared to normal,especially in the NE and states just below Great Lakes.At least they did have that blockbuster event just before Xmas but certainly not been a cold winter for the Eastern half of the country yet..

 

par for the course across the states in La Nina winters..esp on the eastern and southern half which tend to be milder and drier than in ENSO neutral and El Nino winters 

[nobble]

Could we be about to have a really good re freeze season ? 
 

seems positive at the mo ,

and if so and the melt isn’t so great in summer months could this aid colder winds next winter

[York-snow]

8 hours ago, nobble said:

Could we be about to have a really good re freeze season ? 
 

seems positive at the mo ,

and if so and the melt isn’t so great in summer months could this aid colder winds next winter

The problem is every summer is trending warmer, there’d have to be very favourable Synoptics for any hope of that! 

Edited January 15, 2021 by York-snow

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just to show the extent of yesterdays snow fall in Europe (and eastern UK).

Edit - sea ice expanded today by an average 29K Km2,  despite losses in Greenland (-19K)  and the SOO(-11K),

Interestingly - the smaller sea ice areas all gained with Baltic (+7K), Yellow Sea (+1K) and Cooke Inlet (+1K).  

MIA

Edited January 15, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Another really positive update from Masie today -

Todays snow cover for Europe (and still showing much Eastern UK snowfall).

Sea Ice changes

Masie extent up to 13,709K Km2 today another century increase (+110K Km2) and now in 8th position in front of 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2011, 2007 and 2006. In addition the ice growth is now only 2 days behind 2016, 2009 and 2008,  and 3 - 5 days behind the remaining dates back to 2006. Ice extent growth from the low this year (in early October) has been the highest in the Masie record, being now over 10% (nearly 1,000K KM2) larger than the average growth extent for the season.

All this despite it being recorded as one of the warmer over the same period. 

 I am doing some work on establishing my estimated maximum ice for 2021 shortly, it is worthy of mentioning, and perhaps may be of interest to some,  that last years Masie maximum was  15,129K Km2 which was recorded on 4th March 2020.

General Area gains, today,  in Kara (+19K), Barents (+12K), Greenland (+12K) and Baffin (+10K) as the Atlantic front continues to make up for earlier losses. The Pacific also gained with Bering (+25K) and SOO (+4K), Whilst the long awaited freeze up of Baltic has begun in earnest with (+11K) -  up to 31K Km2 now.  The Central pack also continues to move south into Svalbard with an increase of (+12K).

MIA

 

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Slow sea ice animation for the past week. Mostly subtle changes.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Update for snow and ice cover for the last 2 days (Including my assessment of the 2021 maximum ice extent).

 

Snow cover dramatically reduced in Western Europe (including the UK).

 

Sea Ice Extent has seen a somewhat reduced rate of growth over the last 2 days, but still sits at the 8th lowest. 

Total Masie Northern sea ice extent is now at 13,775KKm2 an increase of (+66K) over the last 2 days. (with (+60K) and (+6K) resp).

Area increases followed the pattern set over the last week with gains mainly in the outer sea areas as  'inner' areas are now more or less full.

On the Atlantic front,  Kara (+59K) has now all but completed its re-icing. Barents (-7K) is still wavering due to the waviness of the polar ice pack in the area, shown by the Central CAB(-22K) . Baffin too is alternating between gains and losses though the last 2 days has seen a (+15K) gain. With Greenland adding (+10K), this area is showing an increase in ice at this time.

On the Pacific front Bering (+1K) has stalled somewhat and the SOO has only gained (+2K). The Yellow Sea has lurched from (+8K) to (-7K) in the 2 days!.      So at present this area is somewhat stalled, as Cooke Inlet has shown no movement.

The Baltic is now showing the effect of the colder air around and has gained (+6K) in the latest 2 day period. It is now showing ice south of the Gulf of Finland junction with the Gulf of Bothnia, Also in Barents we see that ice has now cut the entrance to Murmansk, so the Russian nuclear powered ice breakers will be earning their pay!

 

We are now getting quite late on  into what has been a year of very high level of ice extent growth...  (Nearly 10% up on the average for the 2010's and now rapidly approaching those rates established and the 2000's).

So quite apart from what has allowed/caused this to happen , I thought I would give my views as to what lies ahead to the end of the normal ice growth season. The maximum is normally around the first week of March -  So with 6 weeks left I expect some  further ice extent growth.

 

Because the central pack extent growth is now nearing completion I expect only about a further +20K in Kara, About (+75K) extra in the Central pack area (around Svalbard) as the main pack pushes south. However Barents is more difficult (with last years abnormally high growth!), but I expect only about a further (+200K) this year as compared to the 400K recorded last year.

Greenland has been behaving erratically and I will add in a further (+50K) before the end of season.

So for the main Arctic pack I can see  gains of about  (+345K). The major impact of ice growth 'internally' within the basin as in increasing thicknesses. -  I will look at that another day.

 

In the 'outer' areas growth is still occurring. (If we still get the effects of an SSW we could still expect substantial gains to the end of the season).. 

I have not assumed this to happen. 

So I am forecasting 'average' (60%) further increases for these areas.

This works out at (+300K)  in Baffin - due to expansion down the Labrador coastline plus a little more  down the west side of Greenland, and over in the Pacific, an extra  (+200K) in Bering (similarly 70% of maximum recorded in the last 10 years). 

The SOO is very difficult to estimate as it is so large, My guess is about (+400K) - again about half of the total max gains seen recently.

Also, add in (+50K) extra in the Baltic (If an SSW, then an underestimate), then we see roughly an extra 950K in these outer areas.

(The smaller  Cooke Inlet and Yellow Sea will not add that much even with a 100% increase on the maximum seen to date).

 

So overall  I can see a likely further (+1,295K Km2) gains in extent before the maximum is reached. 

With the current extent at 13,775K Km2, this means I expect a conservative maximum of about 15,070K Km2) at the maximum. This would place it behind 2020 (15,129K), 2012, 2011, and 2010, but level with 2016 (15,072K), for the last 10years. 

I will be reviewing my performance!!!.

Which reminds me - did I miss the guess the max for Arctic Sea ice this year?

Beat wishes if you have got this far!!

MIA

Edited January 18, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[BornFromTheVoid]

I put together a thread looking at the recent big increases in sea ice extent and some of the implications. Some might find it interesting. Some might hate it. Here it is regardless

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Sea ice volume remains 2nd lowest on record, 980 km3 above 2017

Regionally, 2021 is just as bad as 2017 in the central Arctic, but pulls ahead in the other Arctic Ocean seas (Laptev through to Beaufort) and the Sea of Okhotsk.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thanks MIA quite some recovery with incredible swathes of very remarkable severe continental cold surrounding it.

Antarctica is doing rather ok with ice extent too and has experienced the coldest 1st 3 weeks of Jan since 1978, running at an anomaly of 0.5c below the mean.

Done some reading on cyclic ‘Atlantisation’ of the Arctic Ocean which has an effect of sea temperatures....and when the last pulse of the cycle finishes the warmer waters start flushing out. 

 

BFTP

 

 

 

Edited January 20, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Midlands Ice Age]

Been a busy last week for me, with the Midland snow showers, vaccines and childminding of grandkids the order of most days.

So here is my 'update' for the last 5 days.

Starting off with the NH snow and ice chart

Still some snow showing in the UK, but European snow has retreated back towards Russia, Hopefully to return soon to Western Europe.

Masie ice extent has had a stasis in the first part of the week, but has started to grow quickly again recently.

Masie extent up to 13,934K Km2 an increase of (+175K) over the 5 days, but with changes of  (-16K), (-5K), (-2K), (+105K) and today (+82k), it is still in 6th position in the league table.

Areas did not change much anywhere in the first 3 days, except for Greenland which had a net (-22K) change. 

Not much else can be said about these 3 days, as the changes were small.

Since then Kara has totally filled with (+6K),    and Barents (+75K) has now started to fill both from the pack moving SW. and also the Russian coastline freezing westwards  with the very cold air (-30C) taking a hold of their  western sea areas.

Greenland is gaining again (+13K), but Baffin was restrained with (-61K) as warmer air temporarily moved into Newfoundland. Expect large increases again soon.

The CAB moved outwards and westwards  (+25K) towards Svalbard. 

Bering (+24K) continued its steady freeze up, but SOO (+102K) has (as expected) taken up the running, and is now about half full. 

Now,  the total is just short of the 14,000K Km2  mark and still has 6 weeks of growth. It now looks as if this year will be producing more ice than any year in the last 10 years. According to the ASIF we are now about 10% greater than average for this decade from the ice low point last October.  

Volume, as per BFTV's post above, continues to be low (2nd position), but the DMI charts are seeing an uplift in the rate of growth in the last 2 weeks. 

 

What is causing the surface ice to apparently increase quicker this year is unclear. It cannot be the 2M temperatures directly as they have been high throughout. It appears to be a function of the sea temperature with a combination possibly of small changes in  salt content, together possibly with the La Nina allowing cooler conditions to drift into the outer sea areas. Also,  BFTP ideas of the atlantisation may be allowing further spread of waters into the North Atlantic. 

The season started off with a strong burst of winds from the Pacific gaining a lot of traction upon the ice, but this now appears to have been strongly repressed recently, leaving  little or no movement of waters into or out of the Arctic Ocean. (including from the Atlantic).

Confusion still remains as to whether the initial SSW has impacted the situation, but a second warning has just happened and we will just have to wait for any real impact to the Arctic. 

MIA

Edited January 23, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[BornFromTheVoid]

A comparison of sea ice extent for January 24th across different years. The Canadian Atlantic and Bering Sea appear furthest behind, while the Sea of Okhotsk is doing quite well.

[Northwest NI]

2 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

A comparison of sea ice extent for January 24th across different years. The Canadian Atlantic and Bering Sea appear furthest behind, while the Sea of Okhotsk is doing quite well.

Do you know how to slow down the transition between the slides for closer analysis?

[BornFromTheVoid]

1 minute ago, Northwest NI said:

Do you know how to slow down the transition between the slides for closer analysis?

Here's a video version so you can pause. Other than that, I can provide any of the comparison images/years that you want.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie sea ice and snow update for today...

Shows the snow extent  in the middle of the UK on Tuesday (still)., although it has now melted here so will not show on tomorrows.

Masie latest extent total is now over 14 million at 14,066K Km2, which is an increase of (+139KKm2) over the last 4 days).

This has has been caused by increases of +51K, +51K, +19K and +17K on each of the previous day.

This compares to an average  of about 25K Km2 at this time of year.

Changes stuck to a pattern over the last few days with increases in Kara(+21K) now full, and Barents (+72K). The latter mainly caused by ice on the Russian coastline moving northwards with the very cold Russian air (large areas now  lower than -40C to -50C) moving slowly towards Scandinavia.

Greenland lost ice (-25K) as ice moved down the Fram Strait. As also did Baffin (-12K) as the weather there turned variable.

In the Pacific rim oceans SOO (+80K) is still having a big ice season, Whereas Bering was variable and finished just (-11K) down with the last 2 days gains.

The Baltic suddenly gained (+11K) in the last 2 days as the colder air arrived. It now looks primed for increases.

With 5 weeks to go to maximum  it looks as if the 15Kmillion KM2 mark will be achieved. 

The latest Ozone situation shows the Arctic to be well towards the highest for several years, with excess in North America and also over the Kara and Barents Oceans, being fed by the waves feeding in from the Urals.

  

MIA

Edited January 27, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age