Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21

[Midlands Ice Age]

57 minutes ago, Aleman said:

MIA - Have you seen the new ice in the St. Lawrence Estuary and up around Newfoundland?  A record breaking snowstorm has just gone through that dropped up to 4 feet around the New York State area. It supports my understanding that heavy snow is often a big driver of rapid ice growth if the sea is cold enough. (How much of it then sticks is another matter.)

 

 

Edit - I don't know how much fell on Newfoundland but I found a weather a weather forecast that predicted 15-25cm for Thursday and Friday for Nova Scotia. It also indicated there had been a cold air mass move into the area dropping temps to -5 to -10C ahead of the low running up the coastline to bring in the moisture.

Aleman,,

 Not certain this time, as I noticed some ice in the estuary a couple of days back.

There is no doubt that it has expanded rapidly in the last 24 hours.

I'll check it out to see if I can find some history.

MIA

[Katrine Basso]

The latest snow coverage map:

IMS Snow and Ice Products

USICECENTER.GOV

---

U.S. National Ice Center's Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) section for daily Northern Hemisphere snow and ice products.

 

[Aleman]

14 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Aleman,,

 Not certain this time, as I noticed some ice in the estuary a couple of days back.

There is no doubt that it has expanded rapidly in the last 24 hours.

I'll check it out to see if I can find some history.

MIA

Don;t worry too much about the estuary as I was actually more taken by the big blob off Newfoundland which now looks to be melting back a little.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie update today.....

Baffin the only change  (+3K). All other sea areas identical to yesterday.

????????????

Looks like another problem with the US NIC data, which Masie was switched to using last year.

I have just found out how to compare the US NIC charts, (by using 4 windows!) to have a visual representation of any archive data. 

So I can confirm that the US NIC data is faulty and not the Masie.

 

Rather than waste the post I thought it would be worth a review of the current sea ice status (via JAXA) and a look at the forecast charts from CR.

From the ASIF -

JAXA has moved up to 6th lowest today with another century gain. It could easily move up to 8th tomorrow.

 This shows no apparent daily trend drop  over the last 3 weeks.

Meanwhile sea ice growth has now hit 11% above the trend for the last 20 years.

For World sea ice we are now in 12th lowest for the date this century  (14th if including 2 from pre 2000). 

Indeed very interesting times.

 

If like me,  you have been viewing the MOD thread, much is riding on the temperatures in the Arctic,

Attached are CR reports (in other words GFS) for current, day 3 and day 10.

Before that I thought I would show what DMI are reporting for the Arctic (above 80 degrees) circle.

  (ECMWF)

 As can be seen the large warming of earlier in the season is now being replaced, and the temperature will be average very shortly.

 

Current anomaly  (negative - according to CR today)

  An anomaly of -0.6C. 

 

Most of this cold resides in Asia and  North American segments and not in the Arctic Basin.  

Forward to Day 3 -

 Possibly colder surrounding the Arctic.

 

And to Day 10...

 

 North America warmer, but Asia colder. 

Apparently this overall is getting colder into the New Year!!,

It should be noted that an SSW will mean that these temperatures will increase.

 

MIA 

 

Edited December 20, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 hours ago, Aleman said:

Don;t worry too much about the estuary as I was actually more taken by the big blob off Newfoundland which now looks to be melting back a little.

 

I haven't seen the 'big blog' out to sea on Masie, but it is visible in the graphs/post above.

It is, I agree, a bit odd.

MIA  

 

Edited December 20, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[BornFromTheVoid]

Volume still comfortably second lowest on record. Most of the difference to 2016 comes from Hudson Bay, with the Arctic seas pretty close to lowest overall.

 

[Beanz]

23 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Masie update today.....

Baffin the only change  (+3K). All other sea areas identical to yesterday.

????????????

Looks like another problem with the US NIC data, which Masie was switched to using last year.

I have just found out how to compare the US NIC charts, (by using 4 windows!) to have a visual representation of any archive data. 

So I can confirm that the US NIC data is faulty and not the Masie.

 

Rather than waste the post I thought it would be worth a review of the current sea ice status (via JAXA) and a look at the forecast charts from CR.

From the ASIF -

JAXA has moved up to 6th lowest today with another century gain. It could easily move up to 8th tomorrow.

 This shows no apparent daily trend drop  over the last 3 weeks.

Meanwhile sea ice growth has now hit 11% above the trend for the last 20 years.

For World sea ice we are now in 12th lowest for the date this century  (14th if including 2 from pre 2000). 

Indeed very interesting times.

 

If like me,  you have been viewing the MOD thread, much is riding on the temperatures in the Arctic,

Attached are CR reports (in other words GFS) for current, day 3 and day 10.

Before that I thought I would show what DMI are reporting for the Arctic (above 80 degrees) circle.

  (ECMWF)

 As can be seen the large warming of earlier in the season is now being replaced, and the temperature will be average very shortly.

 

Current anomaly  (negative - according to CR today)

  An anomaly of -0.6C. 

 

Most of this cold resides in Asia and  North American segments and not in the Arctic Basin.  

Forward to Day 3 -

 Possibly colder surrounding the Arctic.

 

And to Day 10...

 

 North America warmer, but Asia colder. 

Apparently this overall is getting colder into the New Year!!,

It should be noted that an SSW will mean that these temperatures will increase.

 

MIA 

 

Great information, brilliant effort you put into your posts MIA.  

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie for today..

 I have ignored yesterday as a data problem since  JAXA recorded another century gain at the same time.

Total sea ice extent is up to 12,275K Km2. a gain of 135K Km2 (2 days), and  extent now back to 2nd lowest, being just 5K Km2 behind last year and within 100K KM2 of 5 other years.

Of possible interest is that JAXA has now risen to position 9th lowest. Tables from ASIF attached.

 

Area data from Masie today sees general increases in the peripheral seas with Kara and Barents still also having space to grow in extent.

Chukchi (+9k) is now 99% full.  ESS has filled in the holes formed last week (+16K) by the wind pressure, and Kara (+37K) continues its growth, as does Barents (+17K) - particularly around Svalbard.

The other growth area was in the Pacific basin with Bering (+14K) and SOO (+37K) bursting into life. 

Of possible interest is that current 'expected' ice growth at this time of year is about 45K Km2 per day.  

 

The 'Arctic' high, which gets a lot of mentions on the MOD, Is gradually expected to drift towards the Russian coastline over the next few days (see yesterday's charts). This will allow the extreme cold in NA to subside, but is likely to push the real cold into the Siberian and Central Russian sector. More retrogression would be  needed to get this into Europe.

Let us see what effect this situation has on the Arctic ice, as it has been conspicuous by its absence for a number of years. 

MIA 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

where does everybody get their figures from?? according to NSIDC 2020 has now overtaken 2019,18,17 & 12 whilst 2016 remains last ..BFV has 2020 2nd bottom and MIA 9th? so tis very confusing

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

where does everybody get their figures from?? according to NSIDC 2020 has now overtaken 2019,18,17 & 12 whilst 2016 remains last ..BFV has 2020 2nd bottom and MIA 9th? so tis very confusing

CM...First of all BFTV's above is a volume measurement.                      Masie and JAXA produce extents.

There are many satellites taking 'pictures' of the ice.  Both direct photographic and by multi sensor wavelength measurements which uses scientific model interpretations for calculating the ice in a given area.

There are 4 major centres who collect (or receive) and 'interpret' the data.

These are NSIDC  (NASA,NIC),  JAXA  (Japanese), Bremen and the Danish Met   (DMI).

 

NASA (NSIDC) produce 2 data 'streams', one (the NSIDC) is long running (41 years) and the other is Masie which is newer, but is more accurate around the coastlines. In addition Masie can use 'manual'  (photos) if thought necessary. 

Masie is recognised as being more accurate around the coastline and is used by the US,  and many other, Navy's.  

All the centres  use their own algorithms, and this gives rise to many of the differences.

In addition more recent satellites have a higher level of resolution,  (4KM , as opposed to the old 24KM). Which gives rise to more differences.

A link on the Masie documentation and notes gives a useful overview.

About MASIE-NH | National Snow and Ice Data Center (nsidc.org)  

//nsidc.org/data/masie/

About MASIE-NH | National Snow and Ice Data Center

NSIDC.ORG

---

About MASIE-NH

 

 

In addition there are 3 main types of measurement of the ice....  extent, area, and after further calculation,   volume, via a 'thickness' calculation..  The thickness of the ice is very variable these days, and this gives rise to another set of 'products' such as PIOMAS and the  Danish Met Institute (DMI) calculations. 

It is becoming very complicated these days as attempts to make more  accurate measurements result in more and more data streams.

NSIDC is the old standard and is kept mainly for historical comparison, but it is not particularly accurate and can be 100 km out. 

I always use Masie (day in, day out for accuracy) for my reported daily references and figures, but it does not have a very good user reporting interface, and only goes back to 2006..

So, if I want to talk in terms of comparison with other years I turn to the data in the Arctic Sea Ice Forum. Most of the analysis in there is based upon JAXA (the latest Japanese product) data.

Why so many changes in position at the moment?

Currently (and normally at this time of year) the products tend to 'converge' towards similar values as they start to approach the winter maximum  (March or April). Also the yearly data tends to converge into the range of 11,500 to 12,450K Km2 round about now, and so a large gain (or loss) can result in a large change in the yearly league tables.  41 years in total!.

All products this year have shown the ice refreeze to be quite low (mainly second lowest),  until now. Recently, however,  this year has started to move into the 'pack' of years as the extent ice appears to be freezing more quickly now, and this can lead to large variations from day to day into where it sits in the league table.

In addition some products are more reactive to the 'rate of change' than others, Some average out over 5 days, others 3, and others report the data daily. 

Hope the above is a useful overview, there are many products now.   Not sure I have explained it too well.... 

But I tried?.

MIA

Edited December 21, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

17 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Currently (and normally at this time of year) the products tend to 'converge' towards similar values as they start to approach the winter maximum  (March or April). Also the yearly data tends to converge into the range of 11,500 to 12,450K Km2 round about now, and so a large gain (or loss) can result in a large change in the yearly league tables.  41 years in total!.

All products this year have shown the ice refreeze to be quite low (mainly second lowest),  until now. Recently, however,  this year has started to move into the 'pack' of years as the extent ice appears to be freezing more quickly now, and this can lead to large variations from day to day into where it sits in the league table.

 

Todays Masie is right on cue for my above post. 

Masie extent up to 12,348K Km2  an increase of 73K Km2, and now in 5th position  (its highest placement this refreeze and up from 2nd, as reported yesterday). 

For interest... the rise up to 9th (on JAXA) yesterday was unexpected. - Today it has been down all day  (the service).!!! Probably blew a fuse somewhere! 

Todays rise in Masie shows how closely bunched the years are at this point.

Also how much of a recovery in sea ice this refreeze has been. Will it continue? 

It is now ahead of 2016, 2017, 2018 and also 2006. Just behind 2019. 

Main gains today were in SOO(+39K) and Kara (+31), much as predicted, with Bering adding (+9K).

The only other notable was Greenland and Hudson (12K), cancelling each other out.

No change in the smaller areas although the Yellow Sea lost (-1K).

 

So in summary - Extent wise just about caught up in the pack of recent years after a slow start,

Future outlook - still looks positive with late gains in Kara and Barents still to top up. and freezing just starting in all the peripheral smaller sea areas.  Dare I say it - it could be one of the better years if we see the cold spreading out from any SSW.

I'll take a look at volume before Xmas.

As for the snow cover (see below), it is still struggling in Europe, but elsewhere seems pretty normal.

Can the next week put Europe to rights???

MIA

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Northwest NI]

40 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Todays Masie is right on cue for my above post. 

Masie extent up to 12,348K Km2  an increase of 73K Km2, and now in 5th position  (its highest placement this refreeze and up from 2nd, as reported yesterday). 

For interest... the rise up to 9th (on JAXA) yesterday was unexpected. - Today it has been down all day  (the service).!!! Probably blew a fuse somewhere! 

Todays rise in Masie shows how closely bunched the years are at this point.

Also how much of a recovery in sea ice this refreeze has been. Will it continue? 

It is now ahead of 2016, 2017, 2018 and also 2006. Just behind 2019. 

Main gains today were in SOO(+39K) and Kara (+31), much as predicted, with Bering adding (+9K).

The only other notable was Greenland and Hudson (12K), cancelling each other out.

No change in the smaller areas although the Yellow Sea lost (-1K).

 

So in summary - Extent wise just about caught up in the pack of recent years after a slow start,

Future outlook - still looks positive with late gains in Kara and Barents still to top up. and freezing just starting in all the peripheral smaller sea areas.  Dare I say it - it could be one of the better years if we see the cold spreading out from any SSW.

I'll take a look at volume before Xmas.

As for the snow cover (see below), it is still struggling in Europe, but elsewhere seems pretty normal.

Can the next week put Europe to rights???

MIA

 

 

 

At least Scandinavia is almost all snow covered now. It will be interesting to see Europe and British Isles in particular for 2 weeks time if this spell incoming hits the bullseye.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie update

Another century increase andmoreprogress.

Masie total extent 12,453K Km2 a gain of 105K Km2. Still in 5th position, and likely to take 6th position next week.

More gains in Kara (+18K) and especially the SOO (+56K) again.

Hudson (+12K) and Bering (+21K) added support.

Elsewhere Barents lost (-9K) again, with the other areas hardly changing.

Snow cover little changed again,

Ozone continues to build up in Asia and the Pacific.

  

MIA

 

. 

[claret047]

Thanks MIA & BFTV for making this thread so very interesting, your hard work in providing the information is very much appreciated. A Merry Christmas to you both and other posters on this thread and stay safe in these difficulty times.

Kind Regards

Dave

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

HAPPY CHRISTMAS (still)  and more importantly a Healthy New Year.

 

Hopefully you have all  had the  happy Xmas.

I came back this morning and have only just completed the MOD threads!!!

Shouldn't be quite as exciting in here!.

Anyway 4 days since my last report.

During that time the Arctic Sea ice extent as given by Masie has increased by 307K Km2 to 12749K Km2..

This is an average of 77K Km2 for the 4days as compared to a daily 10year average of 50K Km2.

Masie extent in 5th lowest position as at this date. Lower are 2016, 2017,2018, 2010.

Could well be 8th by the end of the year, with current progress being maintained..

However this is comprised with the following 4 days of (-11K), (+154K), (0K) and today (+153K),  totals, with extreme volatility.

Summing up the areas we can see that the only area to lose is the CAB (-80K), caused by  southerly winds around Svalbard. 

Gains in both Russia and the US, with Kara (+66K), Barents (+5K). and Greenland (+35k),whilst the western hemisphere seas gained with Baffin (+93K), Hudson (+17K), Also Bering gained (+56K) in towards the Aleutian Islands on the American side.

The SOO really freezing quickly now with (+107K).

No real changes in the smaller sea areas.

Colder air is now seeping westwards towards Finland along the Barents seas area and ice will soon become visible around Murmansk.

MIA

 

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

No real update tonight as only a net change of  (-9K Km2) in the last 2 days.

Now back to 3rd lowest in the series.

Individual sea areas showed hardly any difference but a small increase in the Pacific waters, and a slight loss (still) in Barents. 

 

The lack of ice growth is probably caused by this sudden warming in the Arctic.

 

 

So I thought I would update on the Baltic sea ice situation, since it is likely to become of interest in the next 2 weeks. 

https://cdn.fmi.fi/marine-observations/products/ice-charts/latest-full-color-ice-chart.pdf

Both the Gulf of Bothnia and the Gulf of Finland are now seeing ice, and the coastal temperature is dropping towards freezing point. Colder temperatures are expected shortly.

 

Ozone continues to expand from the Atlas range into the Arctic Pacific basin and is now moving along  the Russian coastline .

Of interest are the small amounts of ozone over the UK, and the apparent paucity (baby hole?) in the area south of Greenland.

MIA

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Norrance]

Still a lot of Europe needing snow cover.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, Norrance said:

Still a lot of Europe needing snow cover.

Not really, I think Siberia and Asia will be deep frozen for some considerable time.  Cold and snow looks like it will spread west.  We need and have record date cold in Siberia....the NH likely to be affected

 

BFTP

[Norrance]

North America a bit sparse and Europe well under average. Hopefully this will change in the next few weeks.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Animation of the sea ice extent coverage change for the year. Split into the freeze up to the 11th smallest maximum, melt to the 2nd smallest minimum and freeze to end of year.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

BFTV... Thanks for your update.

Latest snow and ice map for the 1st and second of January...

 

Snow Cover - Still little change in EurAsia, but the US has reduced snow extent a little.  Hopefully the SSW can adjust these extents!!

Sea Ice Coverage-

It is 6 days since my last report and since then there (inside the basin) has been a slow increase in Kara and large fluctuations  in the CAB and Barents as the polar ice front waves around.

Outer (peripheral) sea areas are now beginning to take over the increases.

Masie sea ice extent at 2/1/2021 is up to 12,882K Km2 - an increase in 6 days of 133K Km2.

Still around  2nd - 4th position, and is now (at 1st Jan) in front of 2010, 2016 ,2017and 2018. The changes by day were  -39K, +22K, +44K, -12K,+94K and today +23K.

Volume relatively seems to  have increased slightly according to DMI.

As indicated above the  of note net changes were in Kara (+18K) and Barents (+7k), Greenland (+20K) and Baffin (+60K).  

Other outer sea areas also continued with slow growth (with the exception of Bering (-16K)see below), with Baltic (+2K), SOO(+74K), Baltic (+3K),  Yellow Sea (+10K) and Cooke Inlet (+1K).

The drop in Bering is noteworthy  as it is caused by the extreme cyclonic conditions currently being experienced there, with It being reported that the SLP dropped to around 920millibars, a record, and that this is helping to cause the (atmospheric) waves which are looking to have an impact upon on the currently forecast SSW.

It may well have an impact all round the earth according to the 'Strat' people..

The evidence of the warming currently taking place in the Arctic is shown in the DMI Arctic above 80degrees temperature map.

Apparently the maximum warming is being seen today and from the 4th of January we are expecting the stratospheric winds to reverse and re-direct from the East.

It will be very interesting to monitor these changes against the Arctic ice extent and volume profiles when the downwelling starts to occur.

And finally for my  end of year round up, I am showing the Ozone northern Hemispheric from Nov 2nd to the 29th December 2020.

A large build up of Ozone is currently occurring over the warming stratosphere, associated with the SSW, and the wave 'front' line can clearly be observed..

Arctic Ozone

MIA 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Snow coverage - little change, but southern Europe mountains have a good covering now. 

 

 

Masie (3 day) update...

Extent now up to 12,981K Km2 after increases of 0K, -2K and 101K, in the last 3 days . Still in 2nd position.

The  values look a bit 'iffy' to me as until today virtually no area saw a  change in sea ice as recorded at all.

Today we saw some changes, but they looked very odd with the previously full Canadian Arctic suddenly recording  (+99K), whereas Greenland recorded a loss of (-68K) and Barents (-19K).

More credible are the gains in the SOO (+59K) and Baltic(+4K) and Bering (+17K).

I feel we will see some corrections shortly, and I will comment when they settle down.

MIA   

[DavidS]

Much improved European snow cover. 

 

[summer blizzard]

Does ice usually get to northern Japan.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Unfortunately the animations are too big to upload here directly, so here's the tweet with the sea ice melt and refreeze in 2020 at 2 week intervals. Concentration data this time rather than extent.