Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21

[daz_4]

The forecast for the Atlantic front is not looking too good. If GFS is to be believed there is some pretty stormy weather ahead with strong southerly winds.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thanks Daz..

I have been of that opinion now for the last 3 days...  but the ice is wanting to prove me wrong.

 

Speaking of which I checked last nights US NIC, but I had assumed that it had not updated as the changes were miniscule over the Arctic (both snow and ice).

Masie must be using  the same AMSR2 satellite data!

Masie today

9,579K Km2  (exactly the same as yesterday) and  what is more there were miniscule changes with most area not changing at all.

It has however registered (+2K) in Kara and (-1K) in Hudson. All the rest are identical values.

Not worth analysing as it must be a satellite not reporting correctly. (or a data failure error some-where or other.).

We will see...

   

Gives me a chance to report some other stuff. (thanks to the ASIF)

JAXA today registered a near record for the date increase of +161K KM2,following on from +94K Km2 yesterday.

The daily report shows that the last 2 days (on JAXA) have seen a large increase, following the slight hiatus of earlier in the week..

   This is also the reason I think an error may well have occurred  in Masie recording today!.

In addition the worldwide sea ice totals continue to be impressive . It has now moved up to 6th lowest and is another days growth of  the same amount to be in 8th position. -  Now it is above the average levels for the 2010's.

Graphs of World total sea ice current relative growth and in tabular form follow here -  

       

Again - both poles are being seen as extremely warm at the moment.  (C.R. graphic below)

- Wondering whether it could be an impact caused by the La Nina, although sea temps (SST's)  are also still showing above normal.

       

MIA

 

 

[ArHu3]

Really strange that the Antarctic isn't affected at all and is at the third (or 4th) highest for the date

[Dorsetbred]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

Really strange that the Antarctic isn't affected at all and is at the third (or 4th) highest for the date

Could it be that the land mass in the Northern hemisphere is larger than that in the Southern?

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

13 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Could it be that the land mass in the Northern hemisphere is larger than that in the Southern?

 

Snow cover - quite possibly.

Antarctic and Arctic snow cover  (CR) with a current map of 'lake effect' snowfall in the cold Hudson, happening at the moment.

 

But I am  talking in the main about sea ice here - unless you think the heavy precip could settle on the surface of the cold sea and freeze at these temperatures?

In general the 'lake effect' snow doesn't go much further in land than 1 - 200 miles. 

If you mean higher temps can cause more water vapour to be carried aloft and fall as snow, then yes it is possible.

Does anyone have the atmospheric water vapour history to see what is happening to H2O in the atmosphere?

I'll have a look around.  

As regards sea ice - I would have thought that the SST's (clearly with ocean movements and also drift/flows a large element) should determine the amount of ice, though clearly it can vary with local winds and wave impacts.

Yet we are seeing a reticence to lose ice in the Antarctic at the same time as only a slow ice growth in the Arctic.

MIA

 

 

[jacobdavies]

7 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

Really strange that the Antarctic isn't affected at all and is at the third (or 4th) highest for the date

I don't know if Antarctica sea ice 'isn't affected' by high temperatures - more like it has generally been cold recently in Antarctica. October temperatures were widely below average across Antarctica. 

Land Surface Temperature Anomaly [Night] (8 day) | NASA

NEO.SCI.GSFC.NASA.GOV

---

Welcome to NASA Earth Observations, where you can browse and download imagery of...

http://climate.copernicus.eu//themes/custom/copernicus/favicon.ico Surface air temperature for October 2020 | Copernicus

CLIMATE.COPERNICUS.EU

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Latest here>>

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thanks TONA for the above. It confirms  a  large general sea ice growth, but snowfall mainly in SE Asia,

With todays Masie data comes the expected rebound from yesterdays strange data... 

Masie extent  - 9,772K Km2 an increase of (+193K Km2). Still in second lowest position, but now closing in towards the main pack possibly at the beginning of December.

All areas showed growth, except Greenland (-8K).

The US starred today with Baffin(+67K), and Hudson (+61K) now in full freeze mode, as the ex Arctic air continues to bite..

The Russian front  gained only a little with Chukchi (+10K) and ESS (+3K),  but surprisingly to many,  the North Atlantic front continues to freeze over  with Kara (+23K), Barents (+18K) and Central (+17K). 

The main Arctic ice mass has now reached (and passed) Jan Mayen Islands, and Svalbard is rapidly freezing up ahead of the main Arctic front.  

If one assumes that yesterday was a malfunction of some sorts then the average for the 2 days of (+97K) is still above average.

Checking on JAXA, for some confirmation, and it has come in with another large century gain (+183K) together with a (+160K) gain for yesterday - so still not clear.

I have included a link for Masie's analysis by date, and overall.

It shows how late Barents and Kara are this year, but the NA appears to be doing slightly better than average. 

MIA

 

Edited November 23, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Stravaiger]

6 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks TONA for the above. It confirms  a  large general sea ice growth, but snowfall mainly in SE Asia,

With todays Masie data comes the expected rebound from yesterdays strange data... 

Masie extent  - 9,772K Km2 an increase of (+193K Km2). Still in second lowest position, but now closing in towards the main pack possibly at the beginning of December.

All areas showed growth, except Greenland (-8K).

The US starred today with Baffin(+67K), and Hudson (+61K) now in full freeze mode, as the ex Arctic air continues to bite..

The Russian front  gained only a little with Chukchi (+10K) and ESS (+3K),  but surprisingly to many,  the North Atlantic front continues to freeze over  with Kara (+23K), Barents (+18K) and Central (+17K). 

The main Arctic ice mass has now reached (and passed) Jan Mayen Islands, and Svalbard is rapidly freezing up ahead of the main Arctic front.  

If one assumes that yesterday was a malfunction of some sorts then the average for the 2 days of (+97K) is still above average.

Checking on JAXA, for some confirmation, and it has come in with another large century gain (+183K) together with a (+160K) gain for yesterday - so still not clear.

I have included a link for Masie's analysis by date, and overall.

It shows how late Barents and Kara are this year, but the NA appears to be doing slightly better than average. 

MIA

 

Thanks MIA - informative as always!

I think you mean Franz Josef Land, though, Jan Mayen hasn’t had sea ice in a good long while...at least as far as I’m aware

Edited November 23, 2020 by Stravaiger

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thanks Stav for the above... (you are correct!)

US NIc out earlier and earlier at the moment. Surprised its got todays date on it, as its 23:00 in the UK.

    

 

It shows a huge increase in snow cover in Western Russia, but some reductions in Southern Scandinavia().  

Sea ice  again confounds with good increases in Kara and Barents, and once again large increases in Hudson and Baffin, 

Small decreases again in Greenland, with little change in the Central(CAB).. 

Some increases today in Bering, and also the first signs of ice along the North coast of the Caspian (not registered as sea ice!), but interesting! 

I expect another century from Masie tomorrow.

MIA

Edited November 23, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

17 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks Strav for the above... (you are correct!)

US NIc out earlier and earlier at the moment. Surprised its got todays date on it, as its 23:00 in the UK.

    

 

It shows a huge increase in snow cover in Western Russia, but some reductions in Southern Scandinavia().  

Sea ice  again confounds with good increases in Kara and Barents, and once again large increases in Hudson and Baffin, 

Small decreases again in Greenland, with little change in the Central(CAB).. 

Some increases today in Bering, and also the first signs of ice along the North coast of the Caspian (not registered as sea ice!), but interesting! 

I expect another century from Masie tomorrow.

MIA

WOW WOW...

My musings last night from US NIC (above) proved correct, and the expert forecasters predicting gloom for Barents and Kara have again proved wide of the mark.

But my, was I way out with my guess!!.

Arctic Sea Ice extent leapt to over 10,000K Km2 with a fantastic increase (for any  time of year of +294K Km2).

Day 328 and Arctic sea extent leaps to 10,066KKm2  (now just 1 day behind last year and still in 2nd place). Another similar day will see it leap up the table, into the pack of other years.. 

Well I must start off with the flash freeze ' daddy' of them all in Hudson Bay (+145K Km2), I have been talking for a while  about the cold in Canada - well finally Hudson gave up to the cold.  I can see more large gains to come.

Baffin started to move as well.... (+39K).

The Russian 'front' made some aggressive attempts to  catch up,  with Kara(+56K) and Barents (+31K),  Chukchi ice moved towards Bering Straits with (+29K), and Bering itself added (+7K) as the eastern outer seas begin a serious freeze up. SOO also managed (+3K).

The CAB (Central) gained (+4K), and the only place to lose - yep, as I forecast, it was Greenland (-15K) as the ice edge was pushed northwards again. 

The above is also backed up by another near 200K Km3 increase in JAXA.  That is 3 in the last 3 days. 

                                                                                                                                                              and Masie

   

So what a day.            I have enjoyed that!!

MIA

Edited November 24, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[daz_4]

The gains in Barents and Kara were to be excepted I would say, strong northerly yesterday definitely helped with that. With that said the bad stuff is still coming and was always forecasted for the upcoming weekend. I'm pretty sure any gains will be wiped out by the end of this week. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 hours ago, daz_4 said:

The gains in Barents and Kara were to be excepted I would say, strong northerly yesterday definitely helped with that. With that said the bad stuff is still coming and was always forecasted for the upcoming weekend. I'm pretty sure any gains will be wiped out by the end of this week. 

Thanks Daz

Looked for a 'strong 'northerly in the charts for yesterday... 

Low approached from North Norway, but it brought strong easterlies to Kara and most of Barents, and as the low has flattened and moved closer to the Kara coastline and now extends back into Finland, it is now producing SW winds over most of the coastal Kara area, and more south easterly over the Frans Joseph Islands, but strong southerlies in the north as high pressure develops over Chukchi and the pole,,,.. Right now it looks as if southerlies will be more dominant over the next couple of days.

 

Let us see what happens today and the next few days to the ice?

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

US NIC today (Tue)

   

 

This time the Arctic from  a viewpoint of North America.

Looks to me like little change on snow cover, (Europe not shown)

Arctic sea ice looks like an exact replica to yesterdays, but in a mini version.!!

I expect to see gains in Chukchi,Bering, Kara, and possibly Barents,but especially Hudson and Baffin.

I am guessing again at a century break!!! 

MIA   

 

 

Edited November 24, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today 

A rather ' moderate' about average increase in extent today.

Arctic sea ice is up to 10135K Km2 an increase of (+69 K Km2), and still in second position.

Losses in the Central (CAB) of (-22K)  and Barents(-16K) ensured no century today. 

GaIns mainly in North America with Hudson (+40K) and Baffin (+18K).

Elsewhere Chukchi (+ 15K), ESS (+2K), Kara (+8K) and Greenland (+22K) were about average. 

Bering (+1K) held its own, but a new 'Sea' opened up in Cooke Inlet  - 12 days earlier than last year.

The real question now is what is going to happen to conditions in the Arctic next week.

Forecast models seem to be at  a loss, varying between totally blocked, PV start up and migration to Siberia, or as per the last few years PV sitting in Greenland.

Interesting times.

MIA 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Yesterdays  US NIc 

Little change in snow cover overall.

Sea ice similar with losses on the Russian side,but gains in the Western Hemisphere.

        

 

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today....

Arctic sea ice extent 10116KKm2 a loss of (-19K), and still in 2nd position.

My summary above was quite accurate, but missed a large loss in Chukchi (-43K),  which turned the overall numbers negative. 

Hudson (+55K) continued growing as did Barents (+5K) and Greenland (+3K), All other areas (apart from Kara (-24K)) had very small losses.

Quite a change today in sea ice growth.

More runs needed!!!

MIA 

 

Edited November 26, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[BornFromTheVoid]

Russian Arctic sea's have flatlined in the last 10 days and are back below 2012. Without a significant acceleration in growth, 2020 will be back to the lowest values in a week.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today is another poor day for sea ice.

Not negative, but not good due to the continued Chukchi backtrack in the ice. 

Extent 10,126K Km2 an increase of just (+10K).

Chukchi (-8K) and ESS (-4K) struggled to hold, and Bering lost (-4K) to pull back the spread into the Pacific.

Kara  (+9K)  and Barents (+8K) are expanding slowly now as the CAB strenghtened again (+5K).

Hudson (+24K) continues its refreeze, but Baffin lost (-12K), as did Greenland (-7K).

Very mixed at the moment.

The drop of the Pacific basin ice extent has come when most experts  have been focussed on the low levels of ice in the Kara and Barents.  Checking back the Chukchi has been suffering from a deep elongated low pressure which has entered the area from the Pacific. In the next few days this is expected to start to fill and be replaced by a cell of high pressure from Siberia.

 

GFS,  (so a degree of cynacism is allowed!).

Lighter northerly winds and lower temperatures  (-15 to -20C) could be expected to allow increased  ice formation.

MIA  

 

Edited November 27, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

USNIC - snow cover moving back in towards Europe. Hopefully a trend to be continued in the coming week.

Although the US is looking  more doubtful for the same time period. 

     

 

Sea ice - more of the same really.

Increases in Hudson and Baffin,

Small net decreases on the Russian front - but signs of more life on the US side of the Bering Straits.

Hopefully the last day of this sort of pattern for the sea ice.

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie ..... more of the last 3 days.

Arctic sea ice 10134K Km2 an increase of just (+8K). Still in 2nd position.

Russian front stalling again with ESS(-14K), Chukchi (-1K), Barents (-3K) and Greenland (-24K).

All other areas slightly positive with Bering (+5K), SOO (+4K), Hudson (+11K), Baffin (+32K) as well as Kara (+5K) the largest.

Awaiting a change in the weather patterns, as we seem to be in a reset period all over the northern hemisphere.

Perhaps it will bring the UK some luck!!

 MIA

 

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Impressive Autumn build-up.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Impressive Autumn build-up.

 

Snow now moving into Europe really for the first time. 

Sea ice  is now subject to change in the basin.

Finally growth in Chukchi, but smallish losses in Kara, Barents.

US continues to grow.

Back with Masie later on.

MIA

[BornFromTheVoid]

A few bits to share.
Weekly concentration animation up to the 28th

Weekly extent graph and animation up to the 28th.

Finally, a focus on the Kara Sea, showing how it has waxed and waned over the last 5 weeks or so.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Todays Masie Report..

 At last some real changes (after 5 days)  to report.

From the last report..

 Arctic sea ice extent  is 10,207K Km2,  up (+73KKm2), though still in second position.

Large catch up increases in Chukchi (+59K)  and ESS (+11K).

However losses in Kara (-37K), and Barents (-21K) as the Russian high forced westerly winds across the area, and a drop of (-30K) in CAB (Central Basin).

Elsewhere gains in Greenland (+22K), Baffin (+28K), Hudson (+28K) helped to increase extent and Bering (+9K) and SOO (+2K) are now expected to ice shortly.

Latest GFS forecasts (warning!!!, as shown in C.R.) show the the Russian high is expected to grow in stature, and start to move into Northern Europe, and this will cool down Siberia, whilst leaving the Arctic Basin at the behest of Atlantic depressions.

Overall the expected winter cooling is forecast to proceed.

This should enable the ice to extend  into the slow performing regions over the next few weeks.

  

 

and in 10 days -

    

 

MIA 

 

  

Edited November 30, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age