Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Scandinavian snow largely melted away!

Yep...

Been watching the warmer air slowly encroaching  from the West.

However temps in Central Siberia are still falling and were at a max of -32C when I looked this morning.

(PS I can see a Climate Reanalyser coming up this evening, during the Liverpool game)

MIA

[Mucka]

3 hours ago, Northernlights said:

Hi MIA any chance that severely reduced  air pollution round the world especially from aircraft is allowing more heat to be radiated to space especially in  almost zero daylight areas. Its maybe only a very insignificant effect. if any.

It's a theory but It is more likely a combination of optimal weather conditions and starting with such a slow refreeze,

 

Elsewhere, Probably worth noting that the ice has not reached a minimum extent for nearly a decade when quoting date record minima. 

It is an interesting subject but sometimes the levels of emotiveness attached to some posts (no names mentioned), proclaiming disaster etc are borderline cultish.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Mucka

[Midlands Ice Age]

US NIc seems to get earlier each day.

Today has shown no real change to snow cover.

Sea Ice has expanded again in the same areas as yesterday though not as large by any means.

ESS and Laptev look to be leading again, and are heading to filling in the non-iced seas in the middle of their areas.

Kara looks as if it will slow down in the next few days after a gain today.

Meanwhile  CAA is just about full now, but Baffin and Hudson are continuing to freeze,

Chukchi and Beaufort are also in the final stages of being iced up.

I expect that there will be a 'pause' in the next few weeks, before the freeze starts to really extend to the peripheral areas.

        

 

MIA

 

     

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest PIOMAS volume data is now out, updated to October 31st.

2020 is lowest on record. This is down to the central Arctic basin, Laptev and East Siberian Seas, all of which are lowest on record.

For October 31st, current volume is just
80% of the 2010s
53% of the 2000s
40% of the 1990s
36% of the 1980s

 

  

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie update today...

Total extent 7873K Km2 an increase of 165K Km2 on yesterday and still 2nd lowest.

Beaufort(+2K) and Chukchi (+3K) little changed. Both are now nearly full.

ESS (+68K) filling out now as is Laptev(+17K).         Kara(+50K)  continues to support the newly opened bridge.

Greenland (+5K) and Barents(+0K) little changed but Baffin(+19K) continues its movements southwards. CAA (+1K) is full now and  Hudson (+9K) continues in the early stages of its season. CAB dropped again.( -12K),

So  we now have CAB,  Beaufort, Chukchi and CAA full or nearly full.

ESS, Laptev, Baffin  and Kara are now freezing quickly.  Greenland is performing normally.. 

Hudson and Barents are at the start of the their freezing season. 

The peripheral seas, with Bering and the SOO,  are yet to start.   

MIA 

[Norrance]

From this we can see why ice and snow coverage was so poor generally in the Northern hemisphere but also why North America bucked the trend with their early snowfalls.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today..

Now added a further 139K KM2 today (about 30 per cent above average) to give a total over 8,000  (8,012KKm2) to be exact. Still in 2'nd position in the last 41 years.

To back up the increased speed of refreeze, the ice extend only remained in the 7,000's K Km2 for just 4 days. That is the fastest I have identified.

Beaufort dropped (-1K), but next door Chukchi still expanded (+29K) together with the ESS (+72K) out towards the Bering Sea.

I suspect we will not have to wait much longer for this peripheral sea to start the refreeze. (see below) 

Elsewhere Laptev is now attempting to repair its hole (+21K), whilst Kara added (+6K).

Greenland and Baffin (-2K and +6K) remained steady, whilst Hudson lost (-12K), Hudson has, so far. has started its refreeze earlier than for many years, with reports that the female Polar Bears and their cubs are massing to go out on to the ice.

CAB gained (+7K), but interestingly Masie has recorded the start of the freeze up in the SOO(+1K).  Early this year.

All we need is the Bering Sea to start to freeze now and the peripheral seas will be in good shape,

Still no real sign of the weather stopping the re-freeze. Though GFS has begun to sneak  an occasional low pressure into the Barents sea area.

 

Volume update and comparison at end of month....

PIOMAS (as has been reported) dropped to lowest place in volume as at 1/11/2020.

DMI, however, is still showing it at 2nd position (as it was at 1/11/2020). The comparison match between DMI and PIOMAS is quite interesting (by eyeball).

                      (PIOMAS) latest 

 (as at 16/10/2020)                                                                                   (as at 16/10/20200) 

                                  

 

With the latest version of PIOMAS apparently showing less central thickness than 2 weeks earlier. Compare this with the DMI thickness map over the same period, which shows an increase!!.   

The thicker ice to the edge of the pack (more or less over the north east of the pole - shown as a yellow colour on PIOMAS), seems to have disappeared, but intensified on DMI.

Oh well it will resolve itself over the next month.   

MIA                      

 

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Katrine Basso]

Latest snow and ice chart where the sea ice is slowly increasing

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

10 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

Latest snow and ice chart where the sea ice is slowly increasing

Thanks Katrine...

Thats the way that the ice normally spreads. The last few days have been exceptional..

Though I still expect a slightly above usual century plus today from Masie. 

Have added the previous image in  your post above for easy comparison 

Snow cover is moving south in the US again, and sporadic (showers?) prec. have fallen in southern Siberia and the Scandinavian mountains.

Also we now have a third ice bridge, and the ice is gaining speed towards the Baring Straits.

Edited November 6, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Beanz]

@Midlands Ice Age When you refer to being in 2nd position still, what does that mean?  (excuse my ignorance!) 

 

 

[DAVID SNOW]

On 03/11/2020 at 13:20, BornFromTheVoid said:

Latest single day NSIDC extent increase is the largest on record, at +391k, giving a 5 day total of 1.246 million km2.
No longer the lowest on record now, 44k above 2016.

Is there a latest update for this chart?

[BornFromTheVoid]

6 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Is there a latest update for this chart?

That's the latest I have. I suspect the update yesterday (which was to the 4th) was an error as it was identical to the previous day. So hopefully, later this afternoon I'll have a version updated to the 4th or 5th.

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Beanz said:

@Midlands Ice Age When you refer to being in 2nd position still, what does that mean?  (excuse my ignorance!) 

 

 

Second lowest in the 'recorded' history for this point in the year.

What does that mean?

It is going back to 2006 in the case of Masie, going back to 1979 in the case of the NSIDC products.

Satellite data exists going back a further 8 to 20 years (earliest sat data has not been published widely and is considered to be a standardisation period),  also visual satellite records exist from about 1960. But have not been widely reported/analysed.

It is a very interesting topic and many people are still working on it.

 

 

Edited November 6, 2020 by BornFromTheVoid
It's possible to answer the question without going into scientifically unsupported ideas about past ice levels.

[BornFromTheVoid]

3 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Is there a latest update for this chart?

The very latest

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

Masie, today has once again exceeded my expectations. (I must start to increase my suggested values)!.

Masie extent today  - up to 8274K Km2 a gain of 262KKm2 - still in 2nd position, but now closing in on the pack quite quickly.

Area details -    Chukchi increased (+15K), but the star today is a flash freeze in the ESS of (+104K).

It is now racing along the Russian coastline towards the fxxxxx Island, which I think denotes the start of the Bering sea area.

Laptev continues with the process of filling in with (+41K), and Chukchi (after a quiet spell) added (+38K).

That's another double century gain for the Russian seas.

 

Any chance of your Russian seas ice status graph,   BFTV?

 

Elsewhere there were gains in Baffin(+17K), a small gain in the CAA (+2k, and now regarded as full), but another large gain in the Hudson Bay north around the Foxe basin area (+49K).

It is  now quite possible that my post of a couple days back, that a slow down could be expected before the peripheral seas start to freeze was incorrect.  Hudson and Baffin are doing just fine already, and it looks as if Bering and the SOO are about to start their annual freeze (although outside the Arctic basin the ice is probably even more dependent upon weather conditions).. 

[Beanz]

10 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Second lowest in the 'recorded' history for this point in the year.

What does that mean?

It is going back to 2006 in the case of Masie, going back to 1979 in the case of the NSIDC products.

Satellite data exists going back a further 8 to 20 years (earliest sat data has not been published widely and is considered to be a standardisation period),  also visual satellite records exist from about 1960. But have not been widely reported/analysed.

It is a very interesting topic and many people are still working on it.

 

 

Thank you - shame the answer was moderated but hey ho

[Midlands Ice Age]

Spent half an hour looking at Climate Reanalyser and its outlook. Remember it is GFS based and I am looking at a 10day outlook!

As far as I can see the current quite good conditions for ice will remain over most of the Arctic. The only area of 'doubt' remains on the western Arctic edge around the Svalbard area, where Atlantic depressions could erode the ice in the short term. Also a possible risk for ice promotion appears over the Bering Strait later on in the outlook period (but it is day10), in the shape of a pacific depression.

Generally the conditions look fairly placid with slack areas of both low and high pressure over the Arctic Basin.

That,  together with the gradual dropping of temperatures over the northern hemisphere due to the lack of solar energy seem to me to be quite positive.

Today -

  

 

3 Day outlook -

 

  

 

10 Day Outlook-

 

 

 

I have a slight problem with these charts however. It is not new to this year, as I also noticed it last year.

That is if you look at the 10 day charts (particularly the min), then there is a very warm area in Laptev and the ESS which I suspect will not be there!.

As the water freezes I have noticed that the temperature over that area appears to drop by about 4 - 6 degrees within 2 days. I have always assumed this to be an effect of the reduction in the amount of moisture in the air due to both freezing of the water in the atmosphere and also that very little evaporation occurs above ice. Hence the temperature charts appear to closely follow the edge of the charts during 'quiet' conditions.

I have watched this happening as the freeze takes hold.

Now in Laptev and on the minimum chart for 10 day, you can see a warmer temperature is still shown, which is almost exactly the same shape as the ice profile is today. It looks as though GFS bases its  forecast temperature on the situation of the water/ice as it is today, and does not adjust/change it for the change of state.

However I am pretty certain that  within 2 or 3 days we will see most of Laptev has frozen and I expect the real  temperature will be lower. (4 - 6 degrees?) 

So something for me to checkout on the next CR update!!!!

Or am I incorrect?

Anyone anything to add/contradict?

Pretty soon I will start up an Ozone update report.                             At the moment it is normal.

MIA 

      

Edited November 6, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

USNIC this morning..

Snow cover - slow changes,nothing significant.

Sea ice - Reduction in ESS (afteryesterday's leap),but gains in Laptev (rapidly filling) and also in Baffin. 

Slow day for ice growth.

    

 

MIA 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie confirms my analysis...  but it is worse in terms of ice growth/retention. 

Masie total extent 8371k km2 a drop of (-3K). Still in second place, but not good.

Chukchi (+4K) and ESS(+16K) consolidated their recent gains.

Laptev goes to fill in the hole (+53K), but Kara(-7K) contracted a little.

As did Barents(-5K) and Greenland(-16K) - caused by southerly winds moving in.

This also must apply to the very large drop (-73K) attributed to the CAB (Central).   I certainly did not see that coming.

The ice seems to be struggling on the Atlantic front now, unlike the Pacific side and US side.

Elsewhere Baffin(+20K) and Hudson (+5K) continued their growth.

MIA

 

[Don]

11 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

USNIC this morning..

Snow cover - slow changes,nothing significant.

Sea ice - Reduction in ESS (afteryesterday's leap),but gains in Laptev (rapidly filling) and also in Baffin. 

Slow day for ice growth.

    

 

MIA 

Looking grim for Scandinavia.

[Stravaiger]

17 hours ago, Don said:

Looking grim for Scandinavia.

Yup - and the complete lack of a refreeze in the Barents is worrying, too.

With the jet running to the north of European heights for the foreseeable, allowing bouts of mild air into the High Arctic at times, I can’t see any sustained winter weather making inroads into these parts any time soon...

 

 

 

Edited November 8, 2020 by Stravaiger

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie reported 'technical difficulties' today...  so no report from me (yet).

US NIC showed little change to the snow cover this morning, with still no change in Scandy.

Sea Ice seems to have grown in the ESS (large amount) , Laptev and  Kara (a bit). Also Baffin and Hudson have expanded southwards, but the Arctic front in an around Svalbard (Barents) is indeed struggling. 

    

I wonder what the tech problems are? Perhaps to do with the large drop in the CAB reported yesterday.

We will have to wait for any data/info.

MIA

 

Edited November 8, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Katrine Basso]

Here is the latest snow and ice map with some increase in ice and snow cover.  Scandinavia is still lagging behind, hopefully it won't be long before it is covered in snow.

 

[Don]

40 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

Scandinavia is still lagging behind, hopefully it won't be long before it is covered in snow.

 

Shame as Scandinavia was doing well for snow for much of October.

Edited November 9, 2020 by Don

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie is still down this morning.

I am not aware of any expected software upgrades,  so ?

Thought I would post the US nic  which Katrine has posted above  with a compare with yesterday. (the best way of watching changes - except BFTV's excellent new graphic).

    

A 'zoom' between the two shows some new snow in Asia (south and west this time), and also some new snow in the central US. 

Sea Ice has increased quite a bit. Already JAXA has recorded a170+K Km2 increase today.

ESS has rocketed out to the Wrangel Island (Boundary of ESS and Chukchi, Bering Seas), and I suspect that we are now in Bering Strait territory. Laptev continues the filling in. Greenland and Baffin have increased somewhat, although Hudson looks to have stalled as warmer weather strikes the southern portion (temporarily?). Also the march of the Arctic front northwards appears to have now reversed.  

Whilst waiting for news from Masie I thought I would share a view of Worldwide sea ice -  

World Sea Ice (with the late large gains in the Arctic) has just improved to 5th lowest ( according to JAXA).

This is after it spent most of the autumn in lowest or second place.

I will display a couple of graphs from the ASIF (with thanks)  so you can see an overview  of what is happening more widely.

   

It is fairly obvious to see that the rapid late gains in the NH have, this year, more than outstripped the losses as the Antarctic enters is spring melting season.. Already the total refreeze season has extended by 4 days compared to what we have seen in the recent past records.

Hopefully back later with a few Masie details.

MIA

Edited November 9, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age