Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21

[damianslaw]

Snow forecast much of Iceland tomorrow/Friday. First proper snowfalls for Scottish Highlands also expected by the weekend.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Looks like decent amount of snow coming across Scandinavia and the Alps 

[Geordiesnow]

On 21/09/2020 at 18:49, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Why?  A snapshot?  Greenland really doing well re SMB....worth looking at whole run and see how it develops

 

BFTP

Yep, Siberian snowcover is comfortably lowest on record(in the data set), temperatures are up to 10C above normal in September which is extraordinary and we got wildfires still burning because of the continuous dry weather. The forecast does favour more troughing which should mean more snowfall mostly for high ground mind but my goodness, temperatures across most of the Arctic basin and Siberia are still well above average. 

Oh and Scandinavia with the big fat infamous Russian high means well above average temperatures there which will mean European snowcover will no doubt be below average also. 

[The Eagle]

It can change quickly to be fair. Hoping for that soon.

 

Just checking the Longyearbyen and Barrow web cams and not much to see yet in either.

 

Slow start.

[swfc]

Big change in Austria and Switzerland. Check out skyline webcams. Great snow scenes currrntly

Edited September 26, 2020 by swfc

[BornFromTheVoid]

Above average ice growth in the last 5 days, primarily around the Beaufort/Chukchi region.

 

Ice is pushing further north along the Kara/Laptev edge though, just 503 km from the N. Pole at its closest point.

[SqueakheartLW]

Just wanted to see how we are doing for Siberian Snow cover vs 2009

2009                                                          2020

Probably a bit better in 2009 but not by a massive amount. I wonder if low solar activity years always get off to a slow start due to the way the jet stream behaves and how patterns get stuck for long periods of time

[mpkio2]

46 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Just wanted to see how we are doing for Siberian Snow cover vs 2009

2009                                                          2020

Probably a bit better in 2009 but not by a massive amount. I wonder if low solar activity years always get off to a slow start due to the way the jet stream behaves and how patterns get stuck for long periods of time

A very good illustration to point out that slow snow growth in September does not equal a cold winter. If anything, the past Septembers where we've had great snow and ice growth in September has turned out to be mild winters here in the UK, 2015/2016 winters to name a few. October is the important month.

[Don]

8 hours ago, mpkio2 said:

A very good illustration to point out that slow snow growth in September does not equal a cold winter. If anything, the past Septembers where we've had great snow and ice growth in September has turned out to be mild winters here in the UK, 2015/2016 winters to name a few. October is the important month.

That's how I've always understood it to be with October being the important month for rapid snow advancement.

[summer blizzard]

12 hours ago, Don said:

That's how I've always understood it to be with October being the important month for rapid snow advancement.

The correlation (though its weak at about +0.4) is actually for the gradient increase (not the nominal) south of 60N and west of somewhere in Russia and its actually from the final week of September through the third week of October. 

Obviously it had success in 09 and 12 (12 especially had the snow just pour south into China so huge sub-60N totals) but a major flop in 16 where we had stellar snowcover but fell flat.

..............

Anyhow with the Ural ridging now prompting a -AO the pattern is actually becoming highly favourable for Siberian snowcover. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thanks for the above post.

After checking your very good daily ice graphic on the other NetW Arctic thread, I went to look at Climate Reanalyser to check the outlook

It showed a rapid cooling of Siberia and Eastern Russia over the next 10 days, with the (fledgling vortex?) depression now centred over the ESS/Kara, (producing the southerlies into Chukchi that you mentioned), but then gradually moving into Kara over the next 10 days.

The effect is to push the ice away from Chukchi in the immediate future  (as you suggest) but it will also push it further westward along the Atlantic front, and also  southwards into the CAA. Expect these 2 areas to start expanding in the next week. 

Also for further ahead with the cooling discussed above we can expect the 'warm' southerlies over the Chukchi to turn much colder as the cold bites into Siberia, and is then ejected into the Arctic by the low over Kara..

So maybe short term pain, but long term gain.

Been watching Masie over the last couple weeks, and it is very variable this year, with a loss of 80K Km2 one day followed by a gain of 220K KM2 the next.

It does however appear to be about a day in front of your ice graphic maps.

Which reporting system do you take your daily data from?. 

Below are a couple of the CR maps that I discussed above showing the progression of the low and the temperature trend.. 

          

 

        

MIA

Edited September 28, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[BornFromTheVoid]

If we weren't seeing rapid cooling at this time of year in the Arctic then we'd be in massive trouble! Sea ice should continue to grow on a weekly basis, and by a faster than average rate given that sea ice maxima are declining slower than minima.

My ice data is from Bremen University, but even the JAXA/ADS data updated this morning shows a small drop in extent for the 27th. This agrees with the difference map (below) for the 26th to the 27th.

Anything more than 2 days of losses at this time of year is truly exceptional, but 1 day loss (like we have now) isn't particularly rare. Using the daily NSIDC extent data since 1979 for the final 5 days of September, 28 out of the 246 days (11%) have seen losses.

MASIE doesn't use a consistent methodology (changing their methods based on the available and suitable data, like visual satellite imagery that varies based on cloud cover). This variable method means it's more liable to larger day to day fluctuations, that can represent sensitivity to changes in the processing method as well as actual changes in the ice cover. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Iceland covered and can see the Alps snowfall 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Siberian snow at last. Looks like an area larger than the UK just got dumped on

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Siberian snow at last. Looks like an area larger than the UK just got dumped on

 

Yep and still more to come.....

Just been looking at the detailed ice maps for the arctic. Not visible on the chart above though -----

Although the main Arctic ice front is being held well to the north by the southerly winds there are now some indications of some ice build up on the Russian coastline. I was not expecting that this  early.

Perhaps it is induced by the coastal 'sieves' which some of the major computer model mappers use to correct for their coastal lack of  accuracy.  

If you remember last year was characterised by the coastal ice reaching out to greet the main ice front. Perhaps this will happen again this year. It may even become a regular feature of our new arctic refreeze.

 

 

I was going to start my review 1st October and once again would have used Masie (as it is still the most accurate of the models as it uses visible wavelengths at an accuracy of 4K Km2, whereas the other products use 24K Km2) . Any issues with cloud are dealt with by inspection by the NOAA and NSIDC.

I know that it has issues when comparing with historical data as they change to the latest satellite (more accurate?) products, without updating the historical data base, but it is still good at looking at the most recent data.

The last week Masie has shown a rapid advance followed by a drop in ice, but now in the last 2 days has seen increases as the ice has started to move back southwards again (now below 85 degrees lat.) on the Atlantic side. This effect has now been ascribed to the low developing over the north Russian coastline, which seems (in the outlook) to become more elongated. 

This will (my forecast) have a positive effect on the Arctic sea ice. 

MIA

Edited September 30, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Snow in Svalbard - and a visiting warship (Spitzbergen)

https://www.spitsbergen-svalbard.com/photos-panoramas-videos-and-webcams/spitsbergen-webcams.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Change in ice over the last 5 days.

Be wary of any hints of ice build up along the Russian coasts at the moment. Due to pixels straddling both open water and land (and confusing the sensors/algorithms), you tend to get false positives appearing for a day or two and then disappearing again, especially where snow is beginning to accumulate.

[cyclonic happiness]

This has got to be a good omen.

A snow area in Siberia, almost exactly the same shape as the UK

[mountain shadow]

14 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

This has got to be a good omen.

A snow area in Siberia, almost exactly the same shape as the UK

Certainly looks a good omen for Scottish independence with a full on split!

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

10 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Change in ice over the last 5 days.

Be wary of any hints of ice build up along the Russian coasts at the moment. Due to pixels straddling both open water and land (and confusing the sensors/algorithms), you tend to get false positives appearing for a day or two and then disappearing again, especially where snow is beginning to accumulate.

 

Thanks BFTV..

I did say that I found it difficult to believe and that it maywell be caused by the inability of the lower res models to identify true coastal ice.

Does your Bremen model have this problem?

Anyway as my wife is in hospital  tomorrow for her hip operation, (on the 1st of Oct,  after waiting over 12months)  and Masie has already reported the data I thought I might doc the output a little early in case I am not around tomorrow..

Total sea ice +74K Km2  up to  4,283K Km2  (2nd lowest) . Central +35K Km2, CAA +24K Km2, Beaufort +19K Km2, however the loss continued in Chukchi (-23K Km2).  So pretty well going according to expectations. (mine anyway).

I think we may well now be in for a spell of large gains especially as Siberia starts to rapidly cool.

Yes I will be watching for any coastal ice formation on Masie  (which does not have the same coastal issues) and I do expect to see very low numbers for the Average sea ice in September (probably 2nd lowest) which will be published in the near future, but I think the immediate ice action will bring positive news for all ice lovers..

MIA

 

 

[Don]

On 30/09/2020 at 06:37, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Siberian snow at last. Looks like an area larger than the UK just got dumped on

 

Lets hope it continues!

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Continuing build-up in Siberia and sea-ice on the increase too.

It looks like Winter 2020 is well underway.

 

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Continuing build-up in Siberia and sea-ice on the increase too.

It looks like Winter 2020 is well underway.

 

Now we are in October snow cover should rapidly expand from east to west. I think it's the rate of advance which is the most important factor, not how far it spreads. In 2012 we saw a rapid expanse in the latter part of the month to the west Russia border. Something to do with feedback mechanisms in the winter. The second half of October is the key timeframe.