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Storm Francis - Tuesday/Wednesday (25th & 26th August)


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Storm Francis has been named by the UK Met Office this morning, arriving Tuesday from the Atlantic, before clearing into the North Sea on Wednesday. 

francis1.png francis2.png

A spell of heavy rain and gusts of 50-70mph are expected (the higher end of that range in exposed spots). More here:

Another unsettled week with heavy rain at times, and gales on Tuesday

 

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Bit further up than South Wales.

Gusts on my handheld anemometer Into low 50mph’s. Some decent wave crashes for August..

Let's all give an 'F' for the guy in the bottom right, he was standing pointing his camera at the lighthouse for a good 5 mins waiting, and when nothing happened he put his camera in his pocket as he

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2 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Have we skipped A-D and started straight on E ..? 

It's the list of names which was started last Autumn. We were just chatting about this here, and assume that there'll be a new list from a again coming soonish. 

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Plenty of warnings appearing for Tuesday into Weds morning.

"very strong winds leading to disruption to travel and power supplies along with potential damage to trees."

Uk Met Office, Met Eireann , IOM Govt, Jersey Met. 

aug24warnFRANCIS.png

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"But it's only August..!" wailed the horse owner, who's trying to get as much grazing done on her fields before she has to bring them in and start forking out money for hay. Each year I expect to be able to keep them out until October before the ground is so saturated that they wreck the grazing. God help those hay/haylage/silage producers still to get forage cut. They need the ground to be firm enough for their heavy machinery to get in and out of the field. Last time this happened we had a serious hay/haylage shortage for horses at the tail end of winter. I had to buy in prepacked  stuff from Europe, rather than our local farm-produced. Is it my imagination or has the tail-end of summer being increasing in wetness the last 10 years?

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Tomorrow looking very “autumnal” indeed. Widespread gusts 50mph +, lots of rain and also thunderstorm risk and usually in these kinds of setups u get more vorticity and spin in the atmosphere so I wouldn’t rule out funnel clouds looks like NW England then it drifts a bit further east FCAEB785-BB01-4C1D-85DB-F7B76574FE3E.thumb.gif.608b6d2a31f461b45b4e62d326fe45b0.gif8A655B8C-2D77-47CE-B64C-6A920179FE6B.thumb.gif.9fa1a99bdf37535160a9d743d734b44e.gif5C64F9F8-DFD9-41F7-AC7C-02A4E3D6391E.thumb.gif.ae1b060c299497a52b516799334abd12.gif

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2 hours ago, Fiona Robertson said:

"But it's only August..!" wailed the horse owner, who's trying to get as much grazing done on her fields before she has to bring them in and start forking out money for hay. Each year I expect to be able to keep them out until October before the ground is so saturated that they wreck the grazing. God help those hay/haylage/silage producers still to get forage cut. They need the ground to be firm enough for their heavy machinery to get in and out of the field. Last time this happened we had a serious hay/haylage shortage for horses at the tail end of winter. I had to buy in prepacked  stuff from Europe, rather than our local farm-produced. Is it my imagination or has the tail-end of summer being increasing in wetness the last 10 years?

Yep, for the UK the Summer is getting wetter since 2000 over the 1980 to 2010 Climate average, noticeable trend image.thumb.png.b16c3e8dd0a047ada9cfa1eddff09aaf.png

 

Edit to add Link and correct climate period, 1981 to 2010 base line

Source https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series

Edited by Downburst
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Will probably get higher wind readings up the local hill with this low compared to the last as the highest winds are going to be occurring during the day.

I got a gust of 36mph on Thursday and only 29mph Friday, and there were some branches off of an ash tree that is up there on the side of the road.

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19 minutes ago, Downburst said:

Yep, for the UK the Summer is getting wetter since 2000 over the 1980 to 2010 Climate average, noticeable trend image.thumb.png.b16c3e8dd0a047ada9cfa1eddff09aaf.png

 

Edit to add Link and correct climate period, 1981 to 2010 base line

Source https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series

Oh wow!  that's actually really interesting because those really high peaks (the ones on or above the high black line) match up with the ridiculously low solar minimums (one of which we are in right now 😄 )  I wonder if it's because the atmosphere becomes more 'dense' as it were, as it shrinks down so it's easier for water droplets to form? Kind of like slightly squeezing a sponge full of water...  🤔

Edited by Ryukai
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8 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Oh wow!  that's actually really interesting because all those really high peaks (the ones on or above the high black line) match up with all the ridiculously low solar minimums (one of which we are in right now 😄 )

I personally don't believe there is a clear correlation with solar cycles and rainfall, but would be delighted if something was found, would be very simple. One thing is true, the climate is getting warmer and slightly wetter over 1981 - 2010 climate. I think the UK Met have done a great job with that site and you can slice and dice into months or seasons, annual and country etc.. Obviously the devil is in the detail, but it's fine with me for a general view.

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Track of the low important for us further south no wind but more in the way of rain a shunt slightly further north more wind and less rain. So all to play for yet. Local Met forecast having none of the strong wind but thundery showers instead. Beeb forecast in agreement with Thundery showers and more in the way of wind. We shall see.

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Quite a drop in wind speeds and wind gusts on the UKV for my location over the last few runs.

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Latest UKV has lowered wind speeds/gusts further for here. Down from 30mph/55mph last night, to 25mph/45mph.

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37 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Latest UKV has lowered wind speeds/gusts further for here. Down from 30mph/55mph last night, to 25mph/45mph.

That's strange, has it moved it further south, or just weakened it 

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Just started raining here. Not expecting a huge amount of rain compared to some areas but then comes the wind once the rain clears which doesn't happen that often. 

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There may be a broken squall line feature forming with this by mid-day and afternoon, affecting parts of Wales, the Midlands and south-central to inland southeastern England. Severe thunderstorms could develop as heights and thicknesses are expected to fall rapidly, and there is evidence of a dry slot forming which can assist in that sort of development. Would say west Midlands the most likely area to see severe storms. 

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