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Just been on Sky News at 2pm talking to Colin Brazier about the Hurricane decent little interview didnt big it up too much as it was thankfully not as bad as expected with the storm surge etc

If Josh Morgerman is telling people to get out, you know this thing is bad - he doesn't quit on any hurricane.  

The power of Nature...

Posted Images

7pm Central NHC update will probably be 942MB / 155MPH.

Thats another 5mb drop in 2 hours & + 5MPH

I think based on the continued slow deepening / the high OHC available & the lack of shear impact > the 8PM edit could be 938/939 & 160MPH which will be CAT 5 status...

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18 minutes ago, Willsy said:

thanks for the info means a lot. i’m praying for them. glad it’s gonna pass to the east of their location. hopefully they dont get to much surge 

Heres the very up to date storm surve predictions.

The further South west they are the lower the impacts

A28890CE-3F34-44C8-A68E-595788D1B9A8.thumb.jpeg.9c2620da0cc0fead45e39b2b5d4baf13.jpeg

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Dropsonde reporting 128kts at surface, so probably does support 130kts and not quite 135kts at the moment.

However...

Those 140kts are literally just above the surface (at most 30-40m), you've got to think that on one of those passes one of the recon planes is going to clock a legitimate 135kts+ SMFR or a dropsonde that gets above 135kts. Won't be long I'd have thought given some of the velocities aloft on radar and that dropsonde report.

Probably odds on we get a cat-5 now.

Edited by kold weather
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Given latest recon shows 150mph sustained winds only 10mph off Cat 5 would say it is 50/50 whether it makes landfall as one. 

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This is just a quick C&P from dropsonde data, got it from tropical atlantic site (puter lagging too badly to manage screenshots).

"Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 45° (NE) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 28.41N 92.76W
- Time: 23:01:39Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 28.42N 93.02W
- Time: 23:08:41Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 35° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 143 knots (165 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 85° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 107 knots (123 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 686mb to 946mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 35° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 137 knots (158 mph)"

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1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

10mb above the surface are cat 5 winds on the last pass.

 

Yep, literally at most 100ft above the surface there. I think its almost inevitable we are going to get a 135kts at some point in the next 2-3hrs from one of the two planes that will be soon in it (Noaa already in, AF plane currently enroute.).

 I'd be surprised if we don't see a cat-5 just before landfall...almost a twin to Michael in that respect, just not quite as deep.

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One of the knot flags in the northern eyewall (2nd recon pass through) is showing 140knots!

Edited by Ryukai
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Check out the beachcam I linked a few posts up, the setting sun is highlighting the upper edge of the hurricane out at sea, looks amazing! 

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As Hurricane Laura bears down on Louisiana and Texas and half a million people flee what forecasters are calling an “unsurvivable storm surge,” environmentalists are also worried about something else: the more than 60 refineries and petrochemical plants in the path of the category 4 hurricane.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/emmanuelfelton/hurricane-laura-could-lead-to-an-environmental-disaster-on

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I just hope to hell that there's nobody left in the small town of Johnston Bayou, or similar.

There's some small consolation that this thing is hitting the least populated areas the worst, but that'll be of little consolation to anybody that's, well... soon to be gone.

That aside, Port Arthur really isn't all that far away, and is a levee'd area. with a relatively large neighborhood and a significant refinery beside a lake, just over the border into Texas. Hopefully they'll hold up to a Cat5 just around the corner? 😞

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Seeing reports that recon just found a pressure minimum of 932mb, which is just nuts. How this thing could still be strengthening right before landfall and under supposed shear beggars belief.

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