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Just been on Sky News at 2pm talking to Colin Brazier about the Hurricane decent little interview didnt big it up too much as it was thankfully not as bad as expected with the storm surge etc

If Josh Morgerman is telling people to get out, you know this thing is bad - he doesn't quit on any hurricane.  

The power of Nature...

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10m wave heights near the eye, the storm surge at high tide is going to wash away a lot of the coastal areas east of Houston. 10-15ft of water inland as far as lake Charles being predicted, insane. I know 2 guys hunkering down near Beaumont. One in a small town called Starks and the other out by Sour Lake, protecting there homes from potential looters post the storm. Families have evacuated. Praying for them tonight

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Southern eyewall on radar just looking a touch less full than it has been in the last hour. Could be just the first hints of shear starting to impart upon the system. Probably won't weaken the system all that much, especially the northern quadrant at this point and given how relatively close to landfall we are now. Probably going to have to be the next two missions of recon if we are going to get a cat-5, preferably within the next 2hrs I suspect.

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Horrible situation, it will be pitch black when the worst of it moves through, guaranteed power cuts, tornado's will be spinning of the edges here there and everywhere.  12 news now just updated to say the prediction is tracking slightly further to the east towards Charles county. That is good news as it will impact a much smaller populated area, hopefully it maintains that track.It can't go too Far East however or New Orleans starts to come into play.....

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Making landfall as a cat 4 is horrific enough - it's going to be a strong cat 4 as well. Catastrophic on the coast - thank God meteorology has come along so much to evacuate people. Galveston is not a million miles away from landfall and remains the US deadliest natural disaster - this seems more SW Louisiana they've not got long to get out. 

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Winds definitely justify 130kts, so expect that to happen very soon from the NHC. SMFR reported a 133kts, so its mighty close. IF we get a legitimate 135kts dropsonde report or if the 2nd recon airplane can get a 134-137kts type wind with SMFR they may well go with 135kts and pull the trigger for a cat-5.

Very borderline either way at the moment.

Extrap pressure down to 937.4mbs

Edited by kold weather
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Extrapolated is 937MB so est 939/940 MB.

Current 155MPH however more data to follow poss 160-165 available.

For comparison Katrina got to 175MPH & 902MB however the peak was a long way away from the coast...

Awaiting more data...

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16 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The best advice for them would be to listen to the local advisories provided for evacuation etc

Is it going to hit that location-

Well these are the overnights

D509B18A-1534-4E69-B446-5566AB1DCCB2.thumb.jpeg.61d1c39bc4b1c9f36f264c00c511c529.jpeg

Galveston is right on the western edge of the modelling - however its not just about the direct location of landfall > the storm surge spreads along the coast

A2A2ACEB-E030-44AD-9814-BE5C9CFE28E2.thumb.jpeg.15441dd20001b0ce6cb552adef5c30ba.jpeg

The NCH official track is below- 

20D481FC-CD22-4282-A15B-5C8A20F7F248.thumb.png.2177c6c7038d00f79e19181bd3670afc.png

From where we are today is a day of observation to see if there is any last minute jogs west - because it wouldnt take much to get that way...

I Imagine your family have already been asked to evacuate anyway as Galveston is right on the coastal strip & if they left it it to see what the final track was & it did jog west then it would already be to late to leave.

thanks for the info means a lot. i’m praying for them. glad it’s gonna pass to the east of their location. hopefully they dont get to much surge 

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Also as per normal with these systems that turn north, track now looks just a little to the east of where the official forecast was expecting. These systems nearly always error to the east.

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