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Warning over Cuba, Cayman Islands and Haiti

not Jamaica http://metservice.gov.jm/local-forecast/

"SIGNIFICANT FEATURE... An Induced Trough across Jamaica associated with Tropical Storm Laura.

Comment... As Tropical Storm Laura is projected to move across Cuba tonight into monday, showers and thunderstorms will spread across Jamaica. Flash Flooding is likely for low-lying and flood prone areas for all parishes. Additionally gusty winds are expected mainly over northern parishes."

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Just been on Sky News at 2pm talking to Colin Brazier about the Hurricane decent little interview didnt big it up too much as it was thankfully not as bad as expected with the storm surge etc

If Josh Morgerman is telling people to get out, you know this thing is bad - he doesn't quit on any hurricane.  

The power of Nature...

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Although a new center may have tried to form between Jamaica and Cuba it seems that the old one survived its trip over the mountains even if the convection did not and is now back over water. It's essentially the dots of convection just north of the main batch offshore. 

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Although it will probably take most of the day to recover its structure it now only has one more trip over land so the NHC have noted that Laura may strengthen today.

As it stands most models have the landfall point around the Texas/Alabama border with the NHC going category 2 but noting that the specialist intensity models are stronger.

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I think the continuous weakening of Marco will also help Laura strengthen as there should be a reduction of shear.

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^^ now the tracks are alligned to what was expected all along when all the MLC moved offshore & the low level got pulled towards it- As ever the complicated interaction of a Ts & land has made some models look inferior

The 06z ENS track is almost on a par with UKMeT 00z with a texas hit circa Cat 4.

 

Last hour or so Laura is beginning to fire more convection in its NW quadrant- Starting to build once again

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Excellent example of how Laura is modifying its own path ahead. That band of cloud near Florida has been dragged up and spun over Laura all the way from the southern Caribbean (actually extends into the Pacific) and will effectively spin round and shield Laura completely. It's rare but it is observed from time to time (notably Hurricane Joaquin had a similar presentation). I assume its indicative of storms that have fantastic outflow channels.

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Decent recovery today, from an exposed centre it’s embedded underneath the main convection and from a lumpy system it’s become two thirds of a pie again.

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Recon entering the system now and it looks like Laura is strengthening with an immediate pressure fall. It’s around the Isle of Youth now.

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@NHC_Atlantic - Tropical Storm #Laura Advisory 22: Laura Now Forecast to Become a Major Hurricane Over the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico On Wednesday. Additional (to Louisiand) Hurricane Watch Area Issued For Portions of Texas.

 

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UKMO and ECWMF this morning are both in the 941-951mb range and both between the Texas border and Houston. 

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Pressure dropped to 995mb and winds increased to 65mph as of the latest advisory. A large part of its wider convective shield is still south of Cuba so it's appearance is a tad odd at the moment as the outflow is restricted but once it's all a bit further west it should begin to intensify at a faster rate. 

RI potential of 25KT in the next 24 hours is above 50%. 

NHC staying near the consensus intensity tools but now at 115mph (category 3) at landfall. 

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We are not far off Hurricane status now as pressure approaches 990MB & the inner eyewall tries to complete...

For models to be forecasting cat 3/4 at this stage is always a bad sign as a rule of thumb they generally initialise to high on pressure meaning that the estimates are often on the conservative side- lets see what the GFS 12z initialised at later on.. Sub 995 would be ideal-

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

We are not far off Hurricane status now as pressure approaches 990MB & the inner eyewall tries to complete...

For models to be forecasting cat 3/4 at this stage is always a bad sign as a rule of thumb they generally initialise to high on pressure meaning that the estimates are often on the conservative side- lets see what the GFS 12z initialised at later on.. Sub 995 would be ideal-

Indeed I think it wasn't supposed to become a hurricane till later on this evening 

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Latest visible looks like we are seeing the eye possibly develop signalling the alligment of the LLC & MLC - once that happens RI here we come
Circulation starting to get good outlow channels now

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Euro model had it trending West while the hurricane centre had it going more in to Lousianna. Looks like the Euro will come out on top again. 

If this does make impact with Houston and there's a growing chance it may,  the logistical headache that creates with people going to shelters amid the pandemic is not really something that why would have planned for in years gone by.

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Wowser!

She's got a bit of a shift on but then we've seen , these past 6 or 7 years, just how rapidly some storms Bomb into Majors?

Interesting few hours of hot sun daylight ahead of us now She threaded the needle (as Katrina Did?) between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula.....

But Boy!, tRump had better hope he performs better than Bush jnr. back in 05' should She come into the Houston area and threaten lives in that Huge population?

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Havent really looked at the data from the 12s however the current trajectory for Laura doesnt suggest a texas hit - will have to review however looks more east again now it has a circulation...

Eyewall still open to the west however trying to close off...

Edited by Steve Murr
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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Havent really looked at the data from the 12s however the current trajectory for Laura doesnt suggest a texas hit - will have to review however looks more east again now it has a circulation...

Eyewall still open to the west however trying to close off...

I misread Ryan Maue tweet earlier. Euro was the only that had it trending West over the last couple of days and it did just not to the extent I posted. Current Ecm has landfall just East of Galveston Bay TX , close enough to louisiana.

Edited by Donegal
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