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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Offically now a category 3, first major of the season.

As for whether it becomes a 5, typically systems in this part of the GoM don't get that high, but then again there is always a chance...I'd say something between 125-135kts is looking probable, anything above that is at the whims of any EWRC and maybe the shear.

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Exrapolated is an estimate before the dropsonde data gives an accurate reading.

In this case is was a little way out> but we have 961MB.

Which is 7MB down from the 968MB I posted earlier.

Exceptional pressure drop across such a short space of time. - The hurricane is borderline CAT 3 but it wont be long before the winds catch up.

The next 12 hours will be crucial.

 

Many thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Less than 10%
 

@kold weather

 

Look at the last 15 track > Wobble NNE !!!

 

We are now CAT 3 Dropsonde data 115MPH

Isn't that NNE Wobble not just a pronounced Trochoidal wobble Steve?

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL

Found a couple of webcams that might be interesting to watch.

These are in Port Charles a few miles East of the Texas/Louisiana border.

https://www.cruisin.me/cruise-port-webcams/united-states/lake-charles-louisiana/ 

https://www.kplctv.com/weather/cams/ Click on the static images to bring up the streaming webcams.

This is in Beaumont Texas, a few miles West of the border.

https://fox4beaumont.com/weather/cameras/bec-station

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
4 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

As for cat 5 this is 2020 anything is possible this year 

Yup!

Mother N. has had enough of us messing up her home and is now gonna take a bite out of 'Big Oil'

EDIT: I wouldn't want to be on one of the offshore rigs right now!

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

I think Cat 4 is definitely possible but there will probably be an eyewall replacement cycle that is likely to cut off the window for a cat 5 hopefully. Nevertheless we have our first major hurricane on our hands on what I think will be a very busy hurricane season. Going to be a tough one this year I think with the above average SSTs and a La Nina appearing to build.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Just checking my posts yesterday and it confirmed my thoughts that we dropped about 1.5mb an hour with an increase through the day and overnight (dropped about 1.5mb an hour though the night). We also added about 40mph in 24 hours to sustained winds. 

The readings this morning are a bit more erratic and ill want to wait until about 3pm but it looks like the rate increased and we should be below 960mb with a good chance of category 4.

For all its flaws earlier with the system it’s worth saying that the Euro has dropped to about 935mb it’s last two runs and comes into 12z at about 960mb which is near enough so well meddled intensity increase and it suggests that tonight will see continuation.

Landfall is due around 9am tomorrow our time.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
21 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think Cat 4 is definitely possible but there will probably be an eyewall replacement cycle that is likely to cut off the window for a cat 5 hopefully. Nevertheless we have our first major hurricane on our hands on what I think will be a very busy hurricane season. Going to be a tough one this year I think with the above average SSTs and a La Nina appearing to build.

Looks like it might have just started an ERC as the eye appears to be closing again on the last few Sat images and a gap has formed on the Eastern side.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir

EDIT  110knot flag marker thingies on the aircraft recon charts (about 127mph!) and 964mb in the eye

Edited by Ryukai
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35 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Isn't that NNE Wobble not just a pronounced Trochoidal wobble 

28 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Looks like it might have just started an ERC as the eye appears to be closing again on the last few Sat images and a gap has formed on the Eastern side.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir

EDIT  110knot flag marker thingies on the aircraft recon charts (about 127mph!) and 964mb in the eye

120KT 

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26 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Seems to be undergoing a "Merger EWRC"?

This could cement the possibility of a mid to high end Cat 4 > During a merger the system develops an outer eye wall like a ERC however rather than replacing the inner eyewall it merges with the existing one creating a more robust eyewall...

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952 Extrapolated again

 

Lets he how close it is > Probs 956/956 MB / 125KT on the next set of runs will bring it close to CAT 4.

NNE wobbles finishes a while back.

Eye is now almost clear & system is as annular as they come. > Increased chances of CAT 5 up to 20% as the pressure drop continues at record pace.

137KT is CAT 5.

942A1B68-C0E5-40B3-83A9-352FC792772E.thumb.jpeg.324ca52f06007bf3316ea3da2a030873.jpeg

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

Reed Timmer and Michael Phelps are on the ground and worth watching 

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Here's a good live cam from Galveston. Gradually getting darker...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
24 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Reed Timmer and Michael Phelps are on the ground and worth watching 

You got any links, I know Reed Timmer had a website, but that seems to have vanished  and a quick search for Michael just brings up info on the Olympic swimmer.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

114kt winds on recon

Capturestorm.thumb.JPG.09fba91ecb3cfd7eb1a71e8451cba06b.JPG

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