September 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Dancerwithwings]

I know it is rare, but when was the last so called adjustments/correction went up not down ?

[Summer Sun]

14.4c to the 28th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.6c to the 16th & 17th
Current low this month 13.8c to the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

12 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I know it is rare, but when was the last so called adjustments/correction went up not down ?

Three months in 2018 (March, April, November) had slight upward adjustments, in two decimals, none of them resulted in a change to the one decimal value the month had from the provisionals. Of those, April had the largest upward adjustment which was 0.09 but from 9.85 to 9.94 remaining on 9.9 as a result. 

It must have happened back before that in terms of the upward adjustment making a change to the recorded value. But my inspection of the past three years shows that the average adjustment is about --0.2 and the range is as large as --0.5. 

[Summer Sun]

14.3c to the 29th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.6c to the 16th & 17th
Current low this month 13.8c to the 1st

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

14.3c to the 29th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.6c to the 16th & 17th
Current low this month 13.8c to the 1st

Perhaps we could see sub 14C after all?!  Never thought I would be too low this month, but that’s weather for you!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.9C bang on the 81 - 00 average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP will probably land close to 50 mm. It was 42 mm after 28 days, added 1-2 mm on 29th, and the ongoing rainfall looks to be in the 6-8 mm daily grid average range. Some places are no doubt getting 15-20 mm but will guess the final value is quite close to 50 mm. Should have a better idea tomorrow with the value on the tracker reaching the end point on 2nd (confirmed value to nearest decimal on 5th). 

(update, EWP was left at 42 mm for 29 days, grid appears to have received 7-10 mm on average yesterday, still thinking final outcome near 50. 

 

Edited October 1, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[mulzy]

Looks like the final value is 13.9C.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Looks like the final value is 13.9C.

An impressive drop during the final week!

Edited October 1, 2020 by Don

[summer blizzard]

Perhaps Roger can tell us where that ranked in his final third list.

And yes, slightly below average.

[Roger J Smith]

The final third (21-30) average was still outside the recent lowest values at 11.6 (see post on page six for the details, 10.9 in 2018). It should be noted that the really cool weather only set in on the 24th, the average for the last seven days was 10.2 C. 

By my calculation the final value of 13.95 and that final third (11.57) would imply the CET after 20 days was closer to 15.1 than the 15.5 we had provisionally. 

So a lot of this low outcome is from adjustments to the warmer days earlier on. 

Despite that, the 15th managed to set a new record high at 20.1, picking off a rather weak one (18.8) formerly shared by 1947 and 2016. 

Edited October 1, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[cheeky_monkey]

sunny Edmonton finished at 11.2c which 0.2c below average..was bang on average up to the last day..yesterday was a 6.5c day so ended up dipping under right at the death.

[summer blizzard]

31 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

sunny Edmonton finished at 11.2c which 0.2c below average..was bang on average up to the last day..yesterday was a 6.5c day so ended up dipping under right at the death.

Had you broken your above average string in Aug or is this month number ~18?

[cheeky_monkey]

51 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Had you broken your above average string in Aug or is this month number ~18?

got really close in both Aug and Sept ..but no my run continues actually Sept makes number 20 

[North-Easterly Blast]

The CET for September has been released, and all the daily figures for the 30 days have been released.  I have added all 30 figures together and divided by 30, and I get an average of 13.97, yet on the official 2020 figures the average is 13.95, and the overall official figure is rounded down to 13.9, yet when I have got an average of 13.97 based on my calculation above, then I think that the overall official figure should be rounded up to 14.0, and I think that 13.97 should be listed at the top of the daily figures in the 2020 official CET section.  I believe that there is a mistake here that needs looking into by Hadley.

[damianslaw]

A notable cool down then ending up very close to average. A very topsy-turvy month.

[Man With Beard]

4 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The CET for September has been released, and all the daily figures for the 30 days have been released.  I have added all 30 figures together and divided by 30, and I get an average of 13.97, yet on the official 2020 figures the average is 13.95, and the overall official figure is rounded down to 13.9, yet when I have got an average of 13.97 based on my calculation above, then I think that the overall official figure should be rounded up to 14.0, and I think that 13.97 should be listed at the top of the daily figures in the 2020 official CET section.  I believe that there is a mistake here that needs looking into by Hadley.

No! Don't do that! 13.9 is my first correct guess for two years 

[Roger J Smith]

4 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The CET for September has been released, and all the daily figures for the 30 days have been released.  I have added all 30 figures together and divided by 30, and I get an average of 13.97, yet on the official 2020 figures the average is 13.95, and the overall official figure is rounded down to 13.9, yet when I have got an average of 13.97 based on my calculation above, then I think that the overall official figure should be rounded up to 14.0, and I think that 13.97 should be listed at the top of the daily figures in the 2020 official CET section.  I believe that there is a mistake here that needs looking into by Hadley.

I had to resoilve this issue in tracking the monthly means, the reason for the discrepancy is that the Hadley monthly mean is the average of their mean max and mean min, the daily means can be rounded upwards on occasion so the average of them will be slightly higher in some cases. In this case, the 13.95 must have been something like 13.947 and as you say the daily means average 13.97. 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 13.9c September 2020 shares the same mean CET with September's: 

1752

1754

1770

1800

1810

1901

1906

1911

1968

1969

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP Tracker finished on 54 mm. 

(Update _ 54.3 mm is the posted amount)

Until they give us a final value on 5th with a decimal value, some ties in scoring will be temporary. So there could be slight variations on this scoring by the 5th.

(update _ I have noted these changes below, from the posted value of 54.3 mm, subject to verification as I am working away from home without access to the supporting excel file). 

Top scores for September

 1. B87 __________ 55 mm _______ 10.0

 2. Dog Toffee _____55 mm ________ 9.92 (2nd entry)

 3. Godber1 ______ 58 mm ________ 9.64

 4. mb018538 _____58 mm ________ 9.56 (2nd entry)

 5. 2010cold ______58.3 mm ______ 9.28

 6.. Freeze _______ 50 mm _________9.09

 7. daniel* ________50 mm ________ 8.81 (2nd entry, 1d late)

 8. Weather26 _____48.2 mm ______ 8.73

 9. Summer Blizzard 60 mm ________8.55

10. BlastFromthePast 60 mm _______8.47 (2nd entry)

11. Summer Shower _47 mm _______8.18

12. Earthshine _____ 64 mm _______8.00

13. Twilight ________65 mm _______7.82

14. DR(S)NO ______ 65 mm _______7.74 (2nd entry)

15, Reef __________ 65 mm _______7.66 (3rd entry)

16. DAVID SNOW __ 65 mm _______ 7.38 (4th entry, 1d late)

17. Mulzy _________66 mm ________7.09

18. Polar Gael _____ 40.2 mm ______ 6.91

19. Stationary Front _ 70 mm _______ 6.55 (20th scoring level)

20. CheesepuffScott_ 68.3 mm _____ 6.53 (1d late, 6.73 - 0.2)

21. BornFromTheVoid_70 mm ______ 6.47 (2nd entry)

22, Bobd29 ________ 37 mm ______ 6.18

23. DiagonalRedLine _37 mm ______ 6.10 (2nd entry)

24. Stargazer _______71 mm ______ 5.62 (1d late, 5.82 - 0.2)

25. syed2878 _______35 mm ______ 5.64 

26. weather-history __ 35 mm ______ 5.56 (2nd entry)

27. Feb91Blizzard ___ 73.4 mm ____ 5.27 

28. General Cluster __ 75 mm ______ 4.91 (29th scoring level)

29. Midlands Ice Age _ 75 mm ______ 4.83 (2nd entry)

30. seaside60 _______74 mm ______ 4.69 (28th scoring level 5.09 - 0.4 2d late)

31. stewfox _________ 75 mm ______4.55 (3rd entry, 1d late)

32, SteveB _________ 76.3 mm _____ 4.36

33. Timmytour _______ 77 mm ______ 4.18

34. MrMaunder ______ 77 mm ______ 4.10

35. Leo97t __________ 78 mm ______ 3.82

=============================================================================

Congrats to B87 who has finished first two consecutive months, Aug and Sep 2020. 

(the rest of scores can be estimated by checking table of entries, subtract 0.18 for each forecast between

yours and that of 35th place at 3.82), but add 0.1 if you're a duplicate entry, earlier entries scoring higher)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING (now shows all Sept entrants and average errors with ranks)

 

Rank _ prev mo __ Forecaster ___________ Total points __ Avg error (rank**)

_01 ___ 01 _____ Twilight ________________71.42 _____ 31.10 (3)

_02 ___ 02 _____ Godber1 _______________70.36 _____ 28.12 (1)

_03 ___ 05 _____ Reef __________________ 65.11 _____ 31.74 (4)

_04 ___ 08 _____ Blast From the Past ______ 62.62 _____ 32.92 (7)

_05 ___ 06 _____ Mulzy _________________ 62.42 _____ 33.12 (8)

_06 ___ 10 _____ mb018538 _____________ 62.30 _____ 34.92 (13)

_07 ___ 04 _____ Jeff C _________________ 61.36 _____ 33.52 (9)

_08 ___ 09 _____ Bobd29 ________________59.90 _____ 35.84 (16)

_09 ___ 03 _____ Emmett Garland _________59.48 _____ 34.42 (12)

_10 ___ 19 _____ Dog Toffee _____________ 58.92 _____ 33.88 (10)

_11 ___ 07 _____ Don ___________________58.28 _____ 35.62 (T14)

_12 ___ 13 _____ Born From the Void ______ 57.19 _____ 37.12 (23)

_13 ___ 23 _____ DR(S)NO ______________ 55.04 _____ 32.81 (6)

_14 ___ 14 _____ General Cluster _________ 54.58 _____ 38.02 (26)

_15 ___ 26 _____ Weather26 _____________ 54.34 _____ 36.47 (18)

t 16 ___ 18 _____ SteveB ________________ 53.79 _____ 36.92 (20)

t 16 ___ 11 _____ Jonboy*________________ 53.79 _____ 32.70 (5)

_18 ___ 25 _____ DAVID SNOW __________ 53.77 _____ 37.01 (21)

_19 ___  24 _____ Stationary Front ________ 53.47 _____ 37.11 (22)

_20 ___  14 _____ The PIT _______________53.15 _____ 36.68 (19)

_21 ___  12 _____ Roger J Smith __________53.02 _____ 40.16 (35)

_22 ___  17 _____ snowray ______________ 52.76 _____ 37.68 (26)

_23 ___  22 _____ Feb91Blizzard _________ 52.64 _____ 38.16 (27)

_24 ___  20 _____ virtualsphere __________ 51.71 _____ 37.46 (25)

_25 ___  15 _____ J10 __________________50.92 _____ 38.26 (28)

_26 ___  31 _____ daniel* _______________ 50.65 _____ 39.28 (31)

_27 ___  21 _____ brmbrmcar ____________49.52 _____ 35.62 (T14)

_28 ___  27 _____ davehsug _____________47.90 _____ 41.95 (37)

_29 ___  30 _____ Midlands Ice Age ______ 47.80 _____ 39.50 (33)

_30 ___  28 _____ February 1978 ^ _______ 46.75 _____ 39.29 (32)

_31 ___ 32 _____ MrMaunder ____________45.81 _____ 38.78 (30)

_32 ___ 32 _____ Seaside 60 ____________44.31 _____ 42.18 (40)

_33 ___ 36 _____ syed2878 ^ ____________43.94 _____ 36.11 (17)

_34 ___ 32 _____ CheesepuffScott ________43.68 _____ 41.85 (36)

_35 ___ 29 ____ThunderyWintryShowers^^^_43.09 _____ 30.46 (2)

_36 ___ 35 _____ Neil N (6) _____________ 42.84 _____ 51.86 (48)

_37 ___ 41 _____ weather-history _________42.31 _____ 42.08 (38)

_38 ___ 34 _____ IRememberAtlantic252^__ 41.91 _____ 34.02 (11)

_39 ___ 33 _____ Relativistic ^___________ 41.66 _____ 42.13 (39)

_40 ___ 47 _____ B87 ^^  _______________41.61 _____ 42.40 (41)

_41 ___ 39 _____ Timmytour ____________ 41.49 _____ 42.94 (42)

_42 ___ 43 _____ Polar Gael ^ ___________39.98 _____ 44.93 (44)

_43 ___ 45 _____ Stargazer ^^___________ 38.78 _____ 39.91 (34)

_44 ___ 38 _____ ProlongedSnowLover ^^__38.67 _____ 37.13 (24)

_45 ___ 32 _____ Diagonal Red Line ^^^ ___36.31 _____ 44.59 (43)

_46 ___ 44 _____ Kirkcaldy Weather ^ ____ 35.55 _____ 47.92 (46)

_47 ___ 32 _____ Earthshine (6) _________ 35.48 _____ 29.97 ( -- )

_48 ___ 32 _____ Norrance _____________ 34.71 _____ 45.92 (45)

_49 ___ 46 _____ Let It Snow ^^ _________ 32.74 _____ 53.41 (50)

_50 ___ 51 _____ Robbie Garrett (6) ______30.58 _____ 39.83 ( -- )

_51 ___ 55 _____ Summer Blizzard (6) ____ 30.17 _____ 34.87 ( -- )

_52 ___ 56 _____ Freeze (6) ____________ 30.12 _____ 44.18 ( -- )

_53 ___ 49 _____ Sleety (6) _____________ 28.89 _____ 41.40 ( -- )

_54 ___ 32 _____ Shillitocettwo ^^^ _______ 28.75 _____ 53.23 (49)

_55 ___ 32 _____ Stewfox ^^^ ___________ 28.23 _____ 48.03 (47)

_57 ___ 61 _____ Summer Shower (3) ____ 23.28 _____ 17.53 ( -- )

_59 ___ 69 _____ 2010cold (4) __________ 19.50 _____ 39.88 ( -- )

_61 ___ 62 _____ Leo97t (6) ____________ 18.40 _____ 52.10 ( -- )

_73 ___ 74 _____ Thundershine (6) _______ 9.57 _____ 412.12 ( -- )

125 __ 125 _____ Lettucing Gutted ________2.39 _____ 147.32 (51)

(more scores to be added in final edit)

_____________________________________________

^ entered 9/10 contests 

^^ entered 8/10 contests

^^^ entered 7/10 contests

(for 6 or fewer, the actual number of entries is shown after forecaster's name --

-- these are not ranked for average error although the statistic is shown)

 

_________________________________________________

 

=====================================================

The best combined forecast in terms of lowest total rank would be mb018538 (14th CET, 5th EWP), next 2010cold (13th CET, 7th EWP) and daniel* (15th CET and 6th EWP). DAVID SNOW was 8th CET and 16th EWP. 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Relativistic]

11 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

At 13.9c September 2020 shares the same mean CET with September's: 

1752

1754

1770

1800

1810

1901

1906

1911

1968

1969

Bit of a quirk: both 1906 and 1911, like this year, recorded annual maxima in excess of 35C.

[J10]

Downloads

September 20 CET.xlsx

September 20 Summary.pdf

Monthly

There were four players who got 13.9c spot on.

Timmytour, Man With Beard, Mark Bayley and stewfox.

This month 30 were within 0.5c ( compared to 28 players last month)

Seasonal

Overall

Some changes this month in the Top 4, and with further changes are still possible for the next 2 months.
mb018538 (1st from 2nd)
Dancerwithwings (2nd from 3rd)
Don (3rd from 4th)
Stationary Front (1st from 4th)

[Earthshine]

Despite a relatively unremarkable 13.9C CET, the maximum CET was still a respectable 18.6C (identical to last year, coincidentally enough).  The minimum CET was a cool 9.3C.  I personally thoroughly enjoyed the weather for the first 2/3 of this month, with plenty of 20C+ days and bags of sunshine.  The latter third was poorer but still had a couple of pleasant days, such as the weekend of the 26th/27th.

[Timmytour]

21 hours ago, J10 said:

Downloads

September 20 CET.xlsx 623.2 kB · 5 downloads

September 20 Summary.pdf 495.57 kB · 10 downloads

Monthly

There were four players who got 13.9c spot on.

Timmytour, Man With Beard, Mark Bayley and stewfox.

This month 30 were within 0.5c ( compared to 28 players last month)

Seasonal

Overall

Some changes this month in the Top 4, and with further changes are still possible for the next 2 months.
mb018538 (1st from 2nd)
Dancerwithwings (2nd from 3rd)
Don (3rd from 4th)
Stationary Front (1st from 4th)

Nice to see myself top of a list that hasn't got the phrase "Most Wanted" above it for a change!  

[feb1991blizzard]

yep - well done B87 - i wont even finish anywhere near where i did last year now - in either competition