September 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[feb1991blizzard]

3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP update ... 12 mm to 10th, not much added on 11th, 20-25 mm average is the GFS 10-day prediction ... that gives a total of about 33-38 mm. The final six days of the GFS run look fairly unsettled and could add 20 mm. So we would be in the 50-60 mm range nearing the end of the month. 

As to CET, would agree there is some potential for 19-20 C days next week, even after that it only cools off to around 16-17. The running CET seems likely to keep climbing for about a week to around 16.5 then would probably edge down to the high 15s. Guesses in the range 14.8-16.2 are probably favoured at this point. 

Yes, only a few days ago i thought i was certain to bust on the high side, i could well bust on the low side now (15.1c)

[mb018538]

I’ve done well all year on the cet comp and sit second....but my 14.1c guess this month looks mega low! Really didn’t see this prolonged warm spell coming! 

[JeffC]

39 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I’ve done well all year on the cet comp and sit second....but my 14.1c guess this month looks mega low! Really didn’t see this prolonged warm spell coming! 

I'm 0.1C above you, I'm not overly concerned, I'm not convinced it'll say that warm for very long, when the HP retrogresses it'll slide back a bit I reckon.

[Summer Sun]

14.8c to the 12th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.2c to the 9th
Current low this month 13.8c to the 1st

[Dancerwithwings]

Long way to go yet guys   the BBC monthly forecast states;

(As we enter the last full week of September, we should see a large-scale pattern shift in the weather across northern Europe. High pressure is expected to build across the north of the continent, including the UK, which will keep things more settled and drier. However, temperatures will stay near or a bit below normal with an easterly or north-easterly breeze across the North Sea. Expect some cloudier conditions on eastern coasts at times too, especially in Scotland.

While we expect the high pressure to stick around throughout the week, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast since the UK is sat right on the edge of the high. Low pressure in France and Spain will occasionally bring some rain into southern areas during the week, but this will likely be more an exception than the rule. However, there is a risk that high pressure will be further east and low pressure could become more dominant) 

It will be interesting to see how the last week in September evolves, looking at the 06z GFS output for the last week,....it certainly is not warm by any means 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Long way to go yet guys   the BBC monthly forecast states;

(As we enter the last full week of September, we should see a large-scale pattern shift in the weather across northern Europe. High pressure is expected to build across the north of the continent, including the UK, which will keep things more settled and drier. However, temperatures will stay near or a bit below normal with an easterly or north-easterly breeze across the North Sea. Expect some cloudier conditions on eastern coasts at times too, especially in Scotland.

While we expect the high pressure to stick around throughout the week, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast since the UK is sat right on the edge of the high. Low pressure in France and Spain will occasionally bring some rain into southern areas during the week, but this will likely be more an exception than the rule. However, there is a risk that high pressure will be further east and low pressure could become more dominant) 

It will be interesting to see how the last week in September evolves, looking at the 06z GFS output for the last week,....it certainly is not warm by any means 

Yes there is a signal for heights to migrate to the NW and we may end up on the cold side of the jet, so despite what looks like being an appreciably above average week CET wise, at least in the CET zone, less so outside, it may be cancelled out somewhat by a somewhat average or cool final week. Hard to give a call on likely CET. A finish above the average mean most likely but with a large window for being anything in the 0 to 2 degree above range at this stage. Need another week or so to confirm where in the range more likely to end up.

[Dancerwithwings]

32 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes there is a signal for heights to migrate to the NW and we may end up on the cold side of the jet, so despite what looks like being an appreciably above average week CET wise, at least in the CET zone, less so outside, it may be cancelled out somewhat by a somewhat average or cool final week. Hard to give a call on likely CET. A finish above the average mean most likely but with a large window for being anything in the 0 to 2 degree above range at this stage. Need another week or so to confirm where in the range more likely to end up.

Agreed, looking back at the August comp some peeps at mid month thought it was going to finish at 18.5c plus and it finished almost a degree lower....also I must add plenty of gefs members are going for a big dip in temps in the last week of September, some of them are going for proper northerlies.

Who said September is quite and boring

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Agreed, looking back at the August comp some peeps at mid month thought it was going to finish at 18.5c plus and it finished almost a degree lower....also I must add plenty of gefs members are going for a big dip in temps in the last week of September, some of them are going for proper northerlies.

Who said September is quite and boring

Yes I said September is often in my view most trying month with little interest. The change in synoptics now and prospects for rest of month are going to make for a more interesting second half than normally expect. Always like Autumn months to deliver more abnormal patterns suggests things might not be expected to be the norm I.e. atlantic driven westerlies..

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.5C -0.8C below average. Rainfall 8.4mm 12.8% of the monthly average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.7C -0.6C below normal. Should be at average values by Wednesday. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

15.0c to the 13th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.2c to the 9th
Current low this month 13.8c to the 1st

[Don]

On 13/09/2020 at 07:50, mb018538 said:

I’ve done well all year on the cet comp and sit second....but my 14.1c guess this month looks mega low! Really didn’t see this prolonged warm spell coming! 

Yes, it looks like my 14.2C guess is down the pan after a decent August!  Probably going to be at least 1C too low?

[Roger J Smith]

EWP projections have dropped considerably with more of a dry blocking theme in evidence now. The current value is only 13 mm, and the GFS 10-day adds only 10 mm on average (the northern half even lower). Days 11 to 16 on the 12z run show some potential for 10-20 mm then, which would bring the total into the 33-43 mm range, near the bottom of our table of forecast values. 

My estimate for the CET from this run would be 15.1 C. Although the warmth expected this week will take us past that, later on it settles into slightly above average conditions (with near normal or below for parts of eastern England and Scotland). It may end up higher than 15.1 if all portions of this scenario are underestimated. 

Certainly a chance for Teddy to become a late September guest, the model run suggests that Teddy will be in the general vicinity by the 28th-29th. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 15.1C -0.1C below normal. Rainfall 8.4mm 12.8% of the monthly average.

[feb1991blizzard]

18 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, it looks like my 14.2C guess is down the pan after a decent August!  Probably going to be at least 1C too low?

i don't think so, based on current ECM mean for Birmingham, (usually a good guide for CET zone), looks like you are well in the frame with a few consecutive 12.5's at the end of the run.

[Dancerwithwings]

25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

i don't think so, based on current ECM mean for Birmingham, (usually a good guide for CET zone), looks like you are well in the frame with a few consecutive 12.5's at the end of the run.

I’m totally with you, look at the average temps (link) some days are in the 10s and 11s 

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/average-uk-temperature

All subject to change of course.

[Summer Sun]

15.2c to the 14th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.2c to the 9th & 14th
Current low this month 13.8c to the 1st

[cheeky_monkey]

cloudy Edmonton is at 11.9c to the 14th...still +0.5c above average at close to the half way point...looks like standard Sept weather over the next 10 days will probably edging closer to average by then. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 15.4C +0.3C above average. Rainfall 8.6mm 13.1% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

15.5c to the 15th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.5c to the 15th
Current low this month 13.8c to the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

EWP continues quite dry (13 mm) and looks to add only 10-15 mm to 26th, big changes from 12z to 18z re Teddy, so won't speculate yet about rainfall 27th-30th, could be significant ... most forecasts still in play as a result.

CET looks to be peaking soon then a slow decline, probably won't drop much below 15 even at end of the month, if it does in fact reach 15 again. Bottom half of the 15 or highest 14s still looking best to me. 

[Summer Sun]

15.6c to the 16th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.6c to the 16th
Current low this month 13.8c to the 1st

[damianslaw]

Next few days likely to see a continued rise in CET but not quite the same day on day rise as most recent ones, we may be on 16 degrees by Monday, much will depend on cloud amounts at night, clearer skies will peg back means somewhat cancelling out the warmer than average maxima.

The latter part of September could though bring a notable marked downturn, possibly 1 degree easily scrubbed off. At this range a finish somewhere between 14.5 and 15.5 degrees a safe bet. Another above average month, but perhaps not notably so.

[summer blizzard]

A finish after corrections somewhere close to 14.5C would be my bet assuming a more Euro like pattern than the stonking GFS12z.

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Next few days likely to see a continued rise in CET but not quite the same day on day rise as most recent ones, we may be on 16 degrees by Monday, much will depend on cloud amounts at night, clearer skies will peg back means somewhat cancelling out the warmer than average maxima.

The latter part of September could though bring a notable marked downturn, possibly 1 degree easily scrubbed off. At this range a finish somewhere between 14.5 and 15.5 degrees a safe bet. Another above average month, but perhaps not notably so.

Yes it looks very cool especially for north.