September 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Relativistic]

I'll go with the 61-90 average of 13.6C please. Rainfall 100mm.

[mulzy]

14.0 and 66mm please.

[J10]

14.4c and 90mm.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

15.8c and 60mm.  2 Longish sunny warm spells and 2 Short chilly wet spells midmonth and end of month.

 

BFTP

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I’ll go with a cool and unsettled September at 13.2c and 95mm.

[Don]

14.2C and 80mm, please.

Edited August 31, 2020 by Don

[davehsug]

14.6C & 85mm please.

[Duncan McAlister]

14.7° for me please.

[damianslaw]

Can't see anything suggesting a notably cooler or milder than average month, indeed suspect it will be very average, with cooler spells offsetting warmer spells. A near normal 14.2 degrees. I find September the least interesting month weather wise, all very pleasant, but a month least likely to deliver anything extreme, bar perhaps the remnants of ext tropical storm systems or a shortlived heatwave.

[mb018538]

14.1c and 58mm please!

[February1978]

14.4c and 84mm please

[Roger J Smith]

September 2020 -- Table of entries

The number in brackets after forecaster name is order of entry for last revision. If the EWP forecast is not changed at same time as CET revision, it retains the original order of entry but is compressed to an intermediate 0.5 between values in the revised  CET order of entry. 

Later entries 1st to 3rd will be added to the table. Entries that are one day late are shown as L1-1 to L1-6 (so far).

 

CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER ___________________ CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER

19.0 __200.0___ Lettucing Gutted ( 12 ) _____________14.5 __ 37.0 ___ DiagonalRedLine ( 13 ) ____________

17.0 __ 64.0 ___ Earthshine ( 04 ) _________________ 14.5 __ 80.0 ___ The PIT( 29 ) ____________________

17.0 __ 35.0 ___ syed2878 ( 30 ) __________________ 14.4 __ 90.0 ___ J10 ( 50 ) _______________________ 

16.2 __ 37.0 ___ Bobd29 ( 10 ) ____________________14.4 __101.0___ Emmett Garland ( 09 ) _____________

15.9 __ 55.0 ___ B87 ( 05 ) _______________________14.4 __ 84.0 ___ February1978 ( 58 ) _______________

15.8 __ 86.7 ___ Roger J Smith ( 21 ) _______________14.3 __ 93.0 ___ brmbrmcar ( 19 ) _________________

15.8 __ 60.0 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST ( 51 ) _____ 14.3 __ 35.0 ___ weather-history ( 35 ) ______________

15.5 __ 40.2 ___ Polar Gael ( 07 ) _________________ 14.3 __ 88.0 ___ Robbie Garrett ( 36 ) ______________

15.5 __ 47.0 ___ SummerShower ( 15 ) _____________ 14.2 __ 85.0 ___ JeffC ( 18 ) ______________________

15.5 __ 55.0 ___ DogToffee ( 16 ) __________________14.2 __ 80.0 ___ Don ( 53 ) _______________________

15.5 __ 90.0 ___ Norrance ( 31 ) __________________ 14.2 __ ------ ___ damianslaw ( 56 ) _________________

15.3 __ 76.3 ___ SteveB ( 01 ) ____________________ 14.1 __ 75.9 ___ 1990-2019 average 

15.3 __ 88.0 ___ jonboy ( 32 ) _____________________14.1 __ 88.0 ___ NeilN ( 03 ) ______________________

15.2 __ 70.0 ___ Stationary Front ( 20 ) _____________ 14.1 __ 85.0 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 08 ) ____________

15.1 __ 73.4 ___ feb1991blizzard ( 42 ) _____________ 14.1 __ 95.0 ___ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 27 ) _______

15.0 __ 65.0 ___ Twilight ( 11 ) ____________________ 14.1 __ 58.3 ___ 2010cold ( 47 ) ____________________

14.9 __ 78.0 ___ Leo97t ( 22 ) _____________________14.1 __ 58.0 ___ mb018538 ( 57 ) __________________

14.9 __ ------ ___ Summer Sun ( 26 ) ________________14.1 __ ------ ___ Walsall Wood Snow ( L1-4 ) _________

_____________________________________________ 14.0 __ 77.2 __ 1981-2010 average  

14.9 __ 75.0 ___ General Cluster ( 33 ) _____________ 14.0 __ 65.0 ___ DR(S)NO ( 28 ) ___________________

14.8 __ 48.2 ___ Weather26 ( 02 ) _________________ 14.0 __ 66.0 ___ Mulzy ( 49 ) ______________________

14.8 __ 68.3 ___ CheesepuffScott ( L1-2 ) ___________ 13.9 __ 77.0 ___ Timmytour ( 23 ) __________________

14.7 __ 58.0 ___ Godber 1 ( 24 ) __________________ 13.9 __ ------ ___ Man With Beard ( 40 ) ______________

14.7 __ 60.0 ___ Summer Blizzard ( 25, 6.5 ) _________13.9 __ ------ ___ Mark Bayley ( 45 ) _________________

14.7 __ ------ ___ Dancerwithwings ( 39 ) ____________ 13.9 __ 75.0 ___ stewfox ( L1-6 ) ___________________

14.7 __ ------ ___ Duncan McAlister ( 55 ) ____________ 13.8 __ ----- ___ sundog ( 38 ) _____________________

14.7 __ 74.0 ___ seaside60 ( L2-1 ) ________________ 13.8 __ 65.0 ___ DAVID SNOW ( L1-3 ) _____________

14.6 __ 82.0 ___ snowray ( 06 ) ___________________ 13.7 __ 77.0 ___ Mr Maunder ( 34 ) _________________

14.6 __ 65.0 ___ Reef ( 37 ) ______________________ 13.7 __ 50.0 ___ daniel* ( L1-1) ____________________

_____________________________________________ 13.6 __100.0___ Relativistic ( 48 ) __________________

14.6 __ 75.0 ___ Midlands Ice Age ( 41 ) ____________ 13.5 __ 83.0 ___ virtualsphere ( 17 ) ________________

14.6 __ 70.0 ___ BornFromTheVoid ( 43 ) ___________ 13.5 __ 50.0 ___ Freeze ( 44 ) ____________________

14.6 __ 85.0 ___ davehsug ( 54 ) __________________13.5 __ 71.0 ___ stargazer ( L1-7 ) _________________

14.45__74.5 ___ consensus _____________________13.4 __ ------ ___ thunderpants ( 46 ) _______________  

____________________________________________ 13.3 __104.0___ Thundershine ( 14 ) _______________

_____________________________________________13.2 __ 95.0 ___ prolongedSnowLover ( 52 ) _________ 

_____________________________________________13.1 __ ------ ___ Kentish Man ( L1-5 ) _______________

 

58 on time forecasts, 45 are above 1981-2010 average, 2 equal to it, and 11 below. 

Seven additional one day late, 65 total, 47 now above 1981-2010, 2 equal, 16 below. 

One more forecast added, two days late, 66 total, 48 above 1981-2010, 2 equal, 16 below.

With six at 14.1, the 1990-2019 average, we can also say that 42 are above that, six equal and 18 below.

Consensus (median) to date is 14.45. 

=======================================================================================

EWP Forecasts in order 

200_LG ... 104_Thun ... 101_EG ... 100_Rel ... 95_IRemAtl, pSL ... 93_brm ... 90_Nor, J10

... 88_NN, jon, RG ... 86.7_RJS ... 85_KW, Jeff, dave  ... 84_Feb78 ... 83_virt ... 82_snow ... 80_PIT, Don

... 78_Leo ... 77.2_1981-2010 ... 77_Tim,MrM ... 76.3_Stev ... 75.9_1990-2019 .. 75_GC, MIA, stew^... 74.5_con

... 74_sea^^... 73.4_Feb91 ... 71_star^ ... 70_SF,BFTV... 68.3_CPS^... 66_Mul ... 65_Twi, DR(S), Reef, DS^

... 64_Earth ... 60_SB, BFTP ... 58.3_2010cold ... 58_Godb, mb  ... 55_B87,DT ... 50_Fre, dan^

... 48.2_wx26 ... 47_SumSh ... 40.2_PG ... 37_Bob, DRL ... 35_syed, wx-his

__________________________

50 on time forecasts, 22 are above 1981-2010 average, and 28 below.

Five so far that are one day late marked ^ and one that is two days late ^^ for a total of 56 (now 22 above, and 34 below 1981-2010 avg)

The slightly lower 1990-2019 average has 25 above and 31 below, consensus being only 0.9 mm below it.

Overall the consensus is 75.0 mm.

______________________________________

Forecasts are still accepted to end of Thursday 3rd September. Increasing late penalties apply.

 

 

 

Edited September 2, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Daniel*]

Oh bugger I’m slightly late again 13.7 and 50mm thanks thinking it will be dry. 

[CheesepuffScott]

Almost forgot..

14.8°C and 68.3mm please

[DAVID SNOW]

13.8.

65mm.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

14.1c for me please.

[Kentish Man]

13.1C thanks

Edited September 1, 2020 by Kentish Man

[stewfox]

13.9c and 75mm

[Stargazer]

Oops, a bit late! 13.5 and 71mm please.

[Roger J Smith]

Daily and cumulative normals for CET in September (1981-2010) with daily extremes 1772-2019

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ max _____ min (records 1772-2019) ___ Extremes of daily running CET

 

01 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 ___ 21.8 (1780,1906) __ 7.1 (1816) __________ 21.8 (1780,1906) __ 7.1 (1816)

02 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 _____ 22.6 (1906) __ 7.6 (1816) _____________ 22.2 (1906) ______ 7.4 (1816)

03 ___ 15.3 __ 15.4 _____ 20.2 (1880) __ 8.2 (1816,1908) ________ 21.4 (1906) ______ 7.6 (1816)

04 ___ 14.7 __ 15.2 _____ 20.7 (1880) __ 7.7 (1841) _____________20.2 (1906) ______ 7.9 (1816)

05 ___ 15.2 __ 15.2 _____ 22.4 (1949) __ 8.1 (1841) _____________19.3 (1906) ______ 8.2 (1816)

06 ___ 15.1 __ 15.2 _____ 20.8 (1898) __ 8.5 (1841) _____________19.0 (1906) ______ 8.4 (1816)

07 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.1 (1868) __ 8.6 (1952) _____________19.0 (1906) ______ 9.1 (1816)

08 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.3 (1898) __ 8.9 (1807,1931) ________ 18.7 (1898,1906) __ 9.6 (1816)

09 ___ 14,7 __ 15,1 _____ 19.8 (1898) __ 9.2 (1860,1912) ________ 18.5 (1898) _____ 10.0 (1816)

10 ___ 14.7 __ 15.0 _____ 19.2 (1865) __ 8.6 (1860) _____________18.2 (1898) _____ 10.3 (1816)

 

11 ___ 14.8 __ 15.0 _____ 20.3 (1999) __ 8.1 (1860) _____________ 18.1 (1865,1898) _ 10.4 (1816)

12 ___ 14.4 __ 15.0 _____ 20.4 (1945) __ 8.1 (1848) _____________ 18.2 (1865) _____ 10.6 (1816)

13 ___ 13.9 __ 14.9 _____ 20.7 (2016) __ 6.7 (1807) _____________ 18.2 (1865) _____ 10.8 (1816)

14 ___ 13.7 __ 14.8 _____ 21.3 (2016) __ 6.7 (1807) _____________ 18.1 (1865) _____ 10.9 (1931)

15 ___ 13.6 __ 14.7 ___ 18.8 (1947,2016) _ 7.9 (1986) ___________ 18.1 (1865) _____ 10.8 (1807)

16 ___ 13.7 __ 14.7 _____ 19.6 (1961) __ 8.1 (1807) _____________ 18.2 (1865) _____ 10.6 (1807)

17 ___ 13.8 __ 14.6 _____ 20.4 (1898) __ 8.1 (1807) _____________ 18.1 (1865) _____ 10.5 (1807)

18 ___ 13.9 __ 14.6 _____ 19.7 (1926) __ 6.9 (1807) _____________ 17.9 (1865) _____ 10.3 (1807)

19 ___ 13,6 __ 14,5 _____ 20.9 (1926) __ 7.4 (1952) _____________ 17.8 (1865) _____ 10.2 (1807)

20 ___ 14.0 __ 14.5 _____ 18.4 (1947) __ 6.8 (1919) _____________ 17.8 (1865) _____ 10.1 (1807)

 

21 ___ 13.7 __ 14.5 _____ 21.4 (2006) __ 6.5 (1872) _____________ 17.5 (1865) _____ 10.1 (1807)

22 ___ 13.8 __ 14.4 _____ 18.7 (1956) __ 6.3 (1872) _____________ 17.2 (1865) _____ 10.2 (1807)

23 ___ 13.5 __ 14.4 _____ 18.3 (1956) __ 6.0 (1773) _____________ 17.1 (1865,2006) _10.3 (1807)

24 ___ 12.8 __ 14.3 _____ 18.3 (2006) __ 6.7 (1872) _____________ 17.1 (2006) _____ 10.4 (1807)

25 ___ 12.7 __ 14.3 _____ 19.4 (1895) __ 7.4 (1812) _____________ 17.1 (2006) _____ 10.4 (1807)

26 ___ 12.8 __ 14.2 _____ 18.4 (1895) __ 6.0 (1885) _____________ 17.1 (2006) _____ 10.4 (1807)

27 ___ 12.9 __ 14.2 _____ 19.0 (1895) __ 6.1 (1824,1885) ________ 17.0 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

28 ___ 13.2 __ 14.1 _____ 18.9 (2011) __ 4.9 (1824) _____________ 17.0 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

29 ___ 13,1 __ 14,1 _____ 19.7 (2011) __ 5.5 (1918) _____________ 16.9 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

30 ___ 12.8 __ 14.04 ____ 20.0 (2011) __ 6.3 (1808) _____________ 16.8 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

 

[seaside 60]

Oh my been so busy I totally forgot.

Where have the last 7 days gone.

Can I have please.

14.7c

74mm

[Summer Sun]

13.8c to the 1st

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.8c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.8c to the 1st

[JeffC]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

13.8c to the 1st

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.8c to the 1st
Current low this month 13.8c to the 1st

Should that read 1.6c below the 81 to 10 average?

[Summer Sun]

14.0c to the 2nd

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average
1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 14.0c to the 2nd
Current low this month 13.8c to the 1st

[Summer Sun]

15.0c to the 3rd

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.0c to the 3rd
Current low this month 13.8c to the 1st