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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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Stonking day for storms. Had two cells with continuous thunder [but mostly no visible lightning again]. Here's some pictures of one storm that I tracked as it progressed up the M11 which produced some

Am enjoying a weekend away 60 miles S of Prague in the pretty town of Písek, the storm front that came in this evening was dramatic! 

Didn’t know we was expecting an avalanche today 🤔

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Posted
  • Location: Hassocks,West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and severe weather events.
  • Location: Hassocks,West Sussex

    Some pretty good hail here a short while ago,nothing massive but very heavy!

    5 hours ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

    Reckon it's heading towards me? 

    It was a good hour or so ago and tracked up towards Crowborough and tunbridge wells,it's what's in the Thames estuary now. But a nice little line forming to the west of west Sussex now! 

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  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    10 hours ago, matt111 said:

    Storm on this cam. Not a lot of thunder but occasional rumbles on there. Quite a loud one at 15:19 

     

    Forgot to share this earlier but there was a stunning CG with shotgun thunder on that cam

    rydecg.thumb.jpg.04b228ef4e5e0709d07103e5950b8384.jpg

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  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Weather Preferences: In summer, a decent thunderstorm, and hot weather. In winter, snow or gale
  • Location: Basingstoke

    Unexpected thunder during a heavy shower at about 4am.  In terms of thunder days, this means it is not now the joint least thundery year since 2010 here!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 20 Dec 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 21 Dec 2020

    ISSUED 08:43 UTC Sun 20 Dec 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Cold pool initially across the British Isles, with steep mid-level lapse rates and several hundred J/kg CAPE, will clear gradually to the northeast on Sunday as an upper ridge temporarily builds from the Atlantic. However, some instability will be maintained near western Scotland on the forward side of the next approaching upper trough. As was the case on Saturday, numerous showers will develop over open waters and move inland into southern and western coastal counties, but some making good progress well-inland due to steering winds and occasional shortwave troughs swinging through in the flow. The greatest risk of lightning is primarily over seas and adjacent coasts where showers move onshore, although the overall risk is considered below SLGT threshold (15-20% chance), and generally reducing through the afternoon. Nonetheless, hail and gusty winds are likely in several showers, although this risk will reduce through the afternoon. By the overnight period the main focus, albeit rather low, will be western Scotland.

    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-12-20

     

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  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Okay own up who ordered a Nuke today because Amazon have just delivered.

     

    IMG_20201220_133953.jpg

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  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
    5 hours ago, SummerShower said:

    Unexpected thunder during a heavy shower at about 4am.  In terms of thunder days, this means it is not now the joint least thundery year since 2010 here!

    Ah, I remember hearing that too last night! What with it being winter, I just rolled over and went back to sleep in a 'not worth getting excited about' kinda way, but it might well just be the only night time thunder heard around these parts this year!

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  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

     

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  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    That sky looks a bit summery to me Zak! Sure it was taken recently?

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  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    3 hours ago, MP-R said:

    That sky looks a bit summery to me Zak! Sure it was taken recently?

    I'm not sure lol.

    Just wondering if anyone else in the area has spotted it.

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  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

    Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

     

    image.thumb.png.470d468ab9ee1f223bf33a64592cf263.png

    Day 1 Convective Outlook: Mon 21 Dec 2020   

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 21 Dec 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 22 Dec 2020

    ISSUED 09:23 UTC Mon 21 Dec 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Scattered showers will affect northern and western Scotland, more especially on Monday evening and night, with a small risk of isolated lightning. Meanwhile, a trailing frontal boundary across southern Britain may develop some line convection at times on Monday night, especially the Midlands into East Anglia, although the depth of convection probably too shallow for much in the way of lightning.

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  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London

    I think there is a chance for some surprise storms tomorrow late morning and early afternoon. A warm front looks to lift north during the morning, with a fairly moist environment, at least for winter: temps 11-13c, dps 9-11c

    image.thumb.png.f0ce9dc15300f9c186adb028d3e1e15b.pngimage.thumb.png.d183831cc2e972e3182e11fb383a2926.png

    This looks to lead to a few hundred j/kg of CAPE, up to 500j/kg on some models.

    image.thumb.png.f2e1aa54d6a08fa67897d5c7f26be283.pngimage.thumb.png.b2e4781ed2115e2a42f25cff21919b3a.png

    Quite a lot of energy (vorticity) in the upper levels as well as that low slows down.

    image.thumb.png.f68b0253eb1590618ad264bdd8937220.png

    And not too unfavourable upper level wind profiles: increasing wind strength with height and a nice loop in the hodographs (this skew-t was for NW London)

    image.thumb.png.5277ecc3178f0475d356530883176d78.png

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  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL

    Got some icy rain going on at the moment, sounded like hail pinging off of the windows, but when I looked it just had the appearance of rain.  Stuck my hand out into it, and the drops have teeny tiny little icy cores to them.  ☺️

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  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire
    58 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

    Got some icy rain going on at the moment, sounded like hail pinging off of the windows, but when I looked it just had the appearance of rain.  Stuck my hand out into it, and the drops have teeny tiny little icy cores to them.  ☺️

    I think you're a bit higher up compared to us across here in S Cheshire. Ours is just wet rain, plain and simple. Roll on something better tomorrow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 24 Dec 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 25 Dec 2020

    ISSUED 09:33 UTC Thu 24 Dec 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Scattered wintry showers running southwards from the North Sea have the potential to produce a few lightning strikes, more especially close to the coast. Many showers will produce hail and gusty winds.

    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-12-24

     

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  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 27 Dec 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 28 Dec 2020

    ISSUED 09:18 UTC Sun 27 Dec 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Large upper trough covers the British Isles throughout Sunday and Sunday night, with cold air atop relatively warm SSTs generating numerous showers over open waters, these then migrating inland on the (predominantly) westerly steering winds. Showers may merge to give longer spells of (wintry) precipitation at times, as various troughs/occlusions swing through in the flow. The greatest risk of lightning will be over open waters and adjacent coastal areas, perhaps with a slightly higher chance towards SW England during the night hours as an organised band of showers arrive from the northwest, approaching the Channel Islands towards the end of the night. As such, a low-end (25-30% chance) SLGT has been introduced. Squally winds and hail may accompany many of the showers, especially in western areas.

    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-12-27

     

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  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Ireland this evening 😵

     

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  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 28 Dec 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 29 Dec 2020

    ISSUED 08:31 UTC Mon 28 Dec 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Large upper trough covers the British Isles on Monday, the cold air aloft atop relatively warm SSTs generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Showers and longer spells of precipitation, wintry at times, will rotate around several small-scale areas of low pressure, in a very complex surface pattern - therefore the specific detail will be difficult to predict with more than a few hours lead time. In general, the greatest risk of lightning will be over seas and near coastal areas - with particular attention given to the Channel Islands on Monday morning, where a SLGT has been issued.

    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-12-28

     

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  • Location: Camelford, North Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells, snow, thunder snow, tornadoes
  • Location: Camelford, North Cornwall
    3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 28 Dec 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 29 Dec 2020

    ISSUED 08:31 UTC Mon 28 Dec 2020

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Large upper trough covers the British Isles on Monday, the cold air aloft atop relatively warm SSTs generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Showers and longer spells of precipitation, wintry at times, will rotate around several small-scale areas of low pressure, in a very complex surface pattern - therefore the specific detail will be difficult to predict with more than a few hours lead time. In general, the greatest risk of lightning will be over seas and near coastal areas - with particular attention given to the Channel Islands on Monday morning, where a SLGT has been issued.

    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-12-28

     

    The gap in the low today is weird though

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  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
    15 hours ago, Zak M said:

    Ireland this evening 😵

     

    Looks more like upwards Ground to Cloud lightning to me. 😄 Have a look for Tom Warner's vids on Youtube, he has some amazing footage of this type, and this looks exactly like it.

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