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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 27 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 28 Oct 2020

ISSUED 07:25 UTC Tue 27 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Frontal rain will spread eastwards across the British Isles during Tuesday daytime, beneath an upper ridge. This will be followed by a cold pool aloft overspread relatively warm SSTs, initially across/around Ireland during the afternoon, and then extending eastwards across southern and western Britain on Tuesday night. With reasonably-steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE, numerous showers will develop over seas and move inland on the west/southwesterly steering flow. A few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible, especially over open water and near adjacent southern or western coasts - particularly south and west Wales, and later in the night Sussex / Kent.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-10-27

 

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Didn’t know we was expecting an avalanche today 🤔

Stonking day for storms. Had two cells with continuous thunder [but mostly no visible lightning again]. Here's some pictures of one storm that I tracked as it progressed up the M11 which produced some

Am enjoying a weekend away 60 miles S of Prague in the pretty town of Písek, the storm front that came in this evening was dramatic! 

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 27 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 28 Oct 2020

ISSUED 07:25 UTC Tue 27 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Frontal rain will spread eastwards across the British Isles during Tuesday daytime, beneath an upper ridge. This will be followed by a cold pool aloft overspread relatively warm SSTs, initially across/around Ireland during the afternoon, and then extending eastwards across southern and western Britain on Tuesday night. With reasonably-steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE, numerous showers will develop over seas and move inland on the west/southwesterly steering flow. A few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible, especially over open water and near adjacent southern or western coasts - particularly south and west Wales, and later in the night Sussex / Kent.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-10-27

 

wasn't expecting anything today so i'm happy. 

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9 minutes ago, MP-R said:

 

It was certainly a very positive experience hehe. I’m in Cleeve at the moment, just north on that map.

Struck right in the woods I sometimes go running in.

That shower seems to have rapidly de-intensified now though as soon as it came inland! 

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5 minutes ago, Charlie Harnett said:

That shower seems to have rapidly de-intensified now though as soon as it came inland! 

Yes very pulse like in nature. It was a fairly innocent blue blob in the Severn Estuary then developed reds and white on passing WSM, so it obviously peaked around here.

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Distant flash observed to my south. This is the third consecutive day I have seen some distant lightning.

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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Distant flash observed to my south. This is the third consecutive day I have seen some distant lightning.

Distant lighting from English Channel? 😄

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 28 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 29 Oct 2020

ISSUED 06:58 UTC Wed 28 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper troughing covers the British Isles on Wednesday, with a cold pool aloft atop seasonably warm SSTs generating several hundred J/kg CAPE. Another day of showers is expected, driven by warm seas initially and then pushed inland by the west/southwesterly steering winds, occasionally organised into more distant bands at times. As is often the case, the risk of a few isolated lightning strikes is greatest over open waters and near adjacent coasts where winds are onshore (so southern and western coasts, 15-20% chance). Hail is likely in many of the showers. Many eastern areas, with the longest land track, may see very few showers during this period. Showers will ease in coverage and intensity on Wednesday evening as a transient ridge arrives from the west, ahead of the next Atlantic low pressure and associated frontal rain.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-10-28

 

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Lots of activity going on in the Swansea are but somehow i keep missing them. 5 have gone north 3 have gone south of me in the last 24 hours. Getting fed up of distant thunder to be honest 

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I've just been woken up by my lightning detector. Looking at lightningmaps.org, it looks like it's from the storm to the SSW of Northampton.

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image.thumb.png.5f764aac1809088ea61c75944d5eeb57.png

Anyone under that massive clump of mess near Haywards Heath?

It seems like a pretty decent hailstorm for someone for sure.

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I was also woken up by my lighting detector earlier but didn’t hear any thunder. Also I just missed a decent looking storm which passed over Southampton just as I was on the way there. A few heavy showers since I’ve been here. 

Edited by matt111
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Looks very tasty just north of Bristol, around Thornbury. Nothing exciting down here, just a period of gusty heavy rain and the sun is coming back out again.

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