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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards

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12 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

A trough across Southern most counties on Wednesday lunchtime on the latest ukmo fax.

The cold front advancing South over the Midlands at the same time.

Hot and humid air in place in the South.

Without looking at all the other ingredients needed, to an untrained eye things look promising.

Now, let's hear what is wrong from a storm potential here..

Cap cant be eroded? ( need 32c for it to break) not enough Cape? Covid 19?

Offers below.

Mixing out air masses, wind too strong, wind too light, CAPE too high (heard that one before), meagre lapse, meagre sheer, food shortage, brexit, Harry & Meghan...

Could be anything

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11 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

Screenshot_20200912_083110_com.android.chrome.jpg

No chance. 

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2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’m not feeling much hope that this is going to materialise tbh

https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/weekly_storm_discussion.asp

Today's discussion from Metcheck basically says what I was going to post in reply. Small chance of something from the plume around Tues, then any potential gets killed off by the easterly winds from the HP. A very boring spell of weather coming up; easterlies are the worst.

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06z WRF-NMM looks like it's showing a thunderstorm in SW England/E Wales travelling NE in the early hours of Wednesday morning

nmm-1-70-0.png

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3 hours ago, Zak M said:

06z WRF-NMM looks like it's showing a thunderstorm in SW England/E Wales travelling NE in the early hours of Wednesday morning

nmm-1-70-0.png

it will change.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 15 Sep 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 16 Sep 2020

ISSUED 06:44 UTC Tue 15 Sep 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Rex block pattern dominates Europe through Tuesday, characterised by a strong upper high over central Europe and an upper low over the Mediterranean. Trough disruption over the Atlantic will result in a second upper low sinking south to the west of Iberia. An upper ridge generally covers the British Isles through this forecast period, with a broad south/southwesterly flow aloft, advecting a marked elevated mixed layer (EML) across much of England and Wales. A PV strip is noted curving from E Scotland - SW Scotland - Irish Sea - SW England at 06z, the focus of this strip will then shift gradually eastwards to be positioned around SE Scotland - NW England - Wales - SW England by 12z, then NE England - Midlands - Cen S England by 18z and finally E Midlands - E Anglia - SE England by 00z. This may induce some weak forcing aloft, above / around the periphery of the EML, to bring the risk of a few semi-random elevated showers / weak thunderstorms. Since these are not dependent on surface heating, they could occur at almost anytime during this forecast period. However, guidance is not particularly bullish in this risk and so a broadbrush LOW threat level has been issued given the vast majority of places will remain void of any lightning activity.

Elsewhere, strong surface heating will yield some SBCAPE across England and Wales, but beneath a stout cap courtesy of the EML. Forecast profiles suggest 2m temperatures at least 33C (ideally higher) would be required to trigger surface-based convection across SE England, slightly lower trigger temperatures further towards NW England (but not significantly so). Therefore it seems unlikely any noteworthy surface-based convection will develop on Tuesday.

The main exception is perhaps north and west Ireland (primarily Connaught to Ulster) where capping is weaker and a warm, moist low-level airmass exists (temperatures 18-20C and dewpoints 16-17C). In the absence of any substantial forcing aloft (some weak PVA), low-level convergence will likely be the primary driver for any deep convection that can develop towards the end of the afternoon and well into the evening / night hours. Some concerns exists over one or more warm noses aloft, and whether convection can grow tall enough for much in the way of lightning (especially given very limited NWP support). Northern Scotland may also need monitoring for a few hours late afternoon before the cold front moves through.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-09-15

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Its another wishy, washy wasted opportunity. For the umpteenth time this year messy mid level convection coming up from the south serving no better purpose than to spoil the sun for many. 

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43 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’m an idiot If I’m getting in any way excited about an ‘event’ that isn’t acknowledged by either Estofex or UKWW

There is no event. Not even Zak will be able to see any storms today or tonight. 🤪

Time to give up for this year and hope that 2021 somehow bucks the trend of every subsequent year over the last 5 or 6 getting worse and worse for plumes/nighttime humdingers down here in the South. 

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8 minutes ago, Lance M said:

There is no event. Not even Zak will be able to see any storms today or tonight. 🤪

Time to give up for this year and hope that 2021 somehow bucks the trend of every subsequent year over the last 5 or 6 getting worse and worse for plumes/nighttime humdingers down here in the South. 

Or just move?

I hear house prices are quite reasonable at the moment 😉 

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Got lots of ac cas building over head not really moving anywhere. Wonder if it'll do anything or not. 

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Plenty of AcCas around here. I have little hope of anything forming. Nice to see them dotted about though, reminds me of summer.

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The sky here looks awesome if nothing else.

view to my NW

DSC03143.thumb.JPG.3522b1e41436933ac16619a89f2b0054.JPGDSC03144.thumb.JPG.09eb78c7d0c0f5aa5c325e9d87754050.JPGDSC03141.thumb.JPG.251b8cd74f29239a0d8af0004649b07e.JPG

view to my SW

DSC03142.thumb.JPG.47e5e8925cea62e010152820bb41d158.JPG

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38 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The sky here looks awesome if nothing else.

view to my NW

DSC03143.thumb.JPG.3522b1e41436933ac16619a89f2b0054.JPGDSC03144.thumb.JPG.09eb78c7d0c0f5aa5c325e9d87754050.JPGDSC03141.thumb.JPG.251b8cd74f29239a0d8af0004649b07e.JPG

view to my SW

DSC03142.thumb.JPG.47e5e8925cea62e010152820bb41d158.JPG

Was like there here in Stoke about an hour ago, it's all merged into a veil of hazy muckiness now though 😑

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Radar app thinks it’s about to rain. Not supposed to. Met and TAF going for a dry evening now

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Now raining. No wonder people don’t trust  forecasts

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1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

Now raining. No wonder people don’t trust  forecasts

Which / whos forecast ?see above for convective weathers forecast, was spot on. Metoffice forecast was also spot on with isolated showers in west late in the day? Has been a dry day for 95% of the uk

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Just noticed a bunch of tall accas to my east. You'd think that a storm is on the way just by looking at them!

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9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Which / whos forecast ?see above for convective weathers forecast, was spot on. Metoffice forecast was also spot on with isolated showers in west late in the day? Has been a dry day for 95% of the uk

Yes convective forecast correct as I would expect. I was referring to the Met Nw England text forecast which had mention showers in a previous update but then changed to it will be dry. Also Liverpool Airport TAF. I was just saying for the general public it doesn’t look good.

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Here in Christchurch, it's Looking very dark to my south, looking at the radar, I can see a line of showers forming but I'm not expecting anything really, would love a bit of rain for the garden though

Can't help but notice how calm it is outside, calm before the storm?

I wish 😂

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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Just noticed a bunch of tall accas to my east. You'd think that a storm is on the way just by looking at them!

Had them over me all day, lovely skies. Should have took a pick. 

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1 hour ago, Southern Storm said:

Here in Christchurch, it's Looking very dark to my south, looking at the radar, I can see a line of showers forming but I'm not expecting anything really, would love a bit of rain for the garden though

Can't help but notice how calm it is outside, calm before the storm?

I wish 😂

Saw a similar line here earlier but all it produced was a few spots of rain. 

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