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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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Annoyingly the Environment Agency rain gauge in South Hornchurch hasn't reported for a couple of hours, but radar-estimates would suggest >80mm over Rainham/south Hornchurch and a PWS rain gauge (so, unofficial) on Netatmo in Rainham has recorded 101mm so far today...

Edited by staplehurst
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Didn’t know we was expecting an avalanche today 🤔

Stonking day for storms. Had two cells with continuous thunder [but mostly no visible lightning again]. Here's some pictures of one storm that I tracked as it progressed up the M11 which produced some

Am enjoying a weekend away 60 miles S of Prague in the pretty town of Písek, the storm front that came in this evening was dramatic! 

Posted Images

14 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Annoyingly the Environment Agency rain gauge in South Hornchurch hasn't reported for a couple of hours, but radar-estimates would suggest >80mm over Rainham/south Hornchurch and a PWS rain gauge (so, unofficial) on Netatmo in Rainham has recorded 101mm so far today...

A rather... appropriate place name there. 😜 

Edited by Ryukai
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14 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Annoyingly the Environment Agency rain gauge in South Hornchurch hasn't reported for a couple of hours, but radar-estimates would suggest >80mm over Rainham/south Hornchurch and a PWS rain gauge (so, unofficial) on Netatmo in Rainham has recorded 101mm so far today...

It does 3 hour slots if I do believe so. It should update at midnight if I remember correctly after having a quick glance.

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3 hours ago, Ryukai said:

Looks at radar, looks outside.... looks at radar again.....

 

THE RAIN IS A LIE!!!!!!!

There is physically 4 drops of water on the car roof... 😭

I've had that problem here this week too, no where near the amount of rain fell, that was on radar on the se failed storm the other day. And nothing was falling the day after at all. 

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😄😄 Just been going through a bunch of photos I've taken on my phone and I came across one I took on Wednesday (12th Aug) and I think I may have photographed a Crown Flash!!!!!  There's this weird vertical pillar thing sticking out of the cloud top on the right side of the photo! 

637376911_IMG_20200812_1805510981.thumb.jpg.f60800506442d3292417b7927806ff06.jpg

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So we can get the Big cell structures with impressive rainfall rates every characteristic of a heavy large import thunderstorm. But no sferics after it leaves france. It doesn't seem to weakening and even tho rainfall rates are extremely high, its all moving at quite a speed on different days. Now these features pushing into Central southern england in the morning may aid in more breaks in the cloud and the low cloud and mist is essentially pushed away to the north with it. Leaving broken sunshine, and thunderstorms in The afternoon. Today we have the highest chance overnight into tomorrow since Wednesday / Thursday. Fingers crossed for today and hopefully  we can see some more before  the season is done. 
 

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Metcheck forecasting a largely cloudy day , well that's not going to do much for temps away from E/SE where 23-25c possible in best of sunshine with 19-21c elsewhere considering temps are the main trigger today

 

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Today carries a much better risk for E/SE areas, mainly down to an increase in DLS, which would sustain storms rather than relying on daughter cells being spawned in a seperate updraft. Tomorrow looking like a much more reliable day IMO despite a slight decrease in CAPE compared to previous days. There’s less capping and a nice Southerly to get the insolation going. Lincolnshire has surprisingly been starved of storms this summer really. Got some catching up to do! 

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23 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Nice little moderate in EA.  

It's quite cute 😄😂

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-08-16

nothing there on that link

edit - correction , now there is

hmm a very localised moderate indeed

here is the detail

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 16 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 17 Aug 2020

ISSUED 07:24 UTC Sun 16 Aug 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

As has been the case in recent days, a warm, moist low-level airmass and Theta-W plume covers much of England, Wales and Ireland on Sunday morning, although this will shift slowly northwards through the day as the upper low over Biscay approaches and introduces slightly lower Theta-W into southern Britain. That said, the southeasterly flow aloft will maintain advection of high Theta-W from the Low Countries into eastern Britain.

PVA and isentropic upglide will maintain some sporadic elevated convection across central Britain to Ireland on Sunday morning, although fairly saturated profiles, weak CAPE and marginal mid-level lapse rates suggests that lightning activity may be rather isolated. A sluter/band of elevated convection may drift north from northern France / Channel Islands on Sunday morning across to southern England, but even this may weaken as it crosses the English Channel. However, diurnal heating ahead of this feature and therefore increasing instability may yield 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE, and this could allow this trough to reinvigorate as it moves north across parts of SE England / M4 corridor, and then later into the Midlands and East Anglia.

 

Ahead of this trough, the slack surface pattern will enable low-level convergence zones to develop, and this could also provide the forcing mechanism for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop by the afternoon, almost anywhere in a zone from SW England through S + SE Wales, the Midlands into East Anglia. In either case, any scattered thunderstorms will likely merge with the approaching trough from the south during the evening hours as a PVA lobe on the forward side of the upper trough encourages more widespread lift, and convection may then grow upscale into a much wider area of rain/thunderstorms. Lightning activity will eventually reduce during the night hours with this feature as rainfall becomes largely frontal as it continues to move northwestwards across northern England, with showers/thunderstorms elsewhere generally decaying by late evening

 

The proximity to the upper low and stronger flow aloft will likely result in some slightly stronger shear compared with the week so far (15-25kts), and this may aid updraft/downdraft separation and sustain convection for longer, allowing some organisation. Consequently some marginally-severe hail (up to 2.0cm in diameter) and gusty winds is possible, although the main threat will be local flooding given the high PWAT once again (around 30-35mm in eastern England). That said, slightly stronger flow aloft will also result in slightly faster storm motion than previous days (around 10-20mph to the NW), and so showers/storms unlikely to be as slow moving as Friday/Saturday.

 

Additional surface-based thunderstorms over France may attempt to migrate northwards across the eastern English Channel towards SE England during the evening hours, but these will probably weaken on arrival (if not earlier) - but could clip parts of the Channel Islands. A few showers will likely develop in W / SW Ireland on Sunday afternoon too, but lightning probably quite isolated.

edit - could be a couple of concerns for people in that description

1 - scattered showers and a few thunderstorms

2 - area of rain/thunderstorms

3 - Lightning activity will eventually reduce during the night hours with this feature as rainfall becomes largely frontal

we shall see

Edited by Gordon Webb
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UPDATE TO STORM MAP:
SVR NOW OVER SE ENGLAND & EA WITH A WIDENED MDR ZONE

image.thumb.png.5198e54560cd0ae97f1311a9ead4c869.png

 

Edited by Jamiee
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9 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

UPDATE TO STORM MAP:
SVR NOW OVER SE ENGLAND & EA WITH A WIDENED MDR ZONE

image.thumb.png.5198e54560cd0ae97f1311a9ead4c869.png

 

If that happens it'll be a miracle! Convective forecasts for the east are more miss than hit (watch that reverse psychology fail yet again). 

Still stuck under a blanket of clag....

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All I'm saying is if I lived in the SE or E Anglia I would be chasing today!

No need to panick either if there are only few storms till late evening, both UKV/AROME/EURO4 don't initiate some meaty storms until after this time. Target area for me a triangle between Northampton-Cambridge-Peterborough.

1ukv.thumb.png.ad15d1056a05e61fb068a363b938a9a3.png2arome.thumb.png.24ba2ffe46c440a0739cb953562def5b.png3euro4.thumb.png.aeeac19e9fe2f516038d20ae6ad66e05.png

 

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3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

All I'm saying is if I lived in the SE or E Anglia I would be chasing today!

No need to panick either if there are only few storms till late evening, both UKV/AROME/EURO4 don't initiate some meaty storms until after this time. Target area for me a triangle between Northampton-Cambridge-Peterborough.

1ukv.thumb.png.ad15d1056a05e61fb068a363b938a9a3.png2arome.thumb.png.24ba2ffe46c440a0739cb953562def5b.png3euro4.thumb.png.aeeac19e9fe2f516038d20ae6ad66e05.png

 

I can't chase for reasons 😢 but will be staying up given how juicy some of the latest runs have been!

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10 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

Estofex dead as a doornail again

They’ve failed to give forecasts before on days when particular severe weather occurred, I wouldn’t read too much into their lack of provision on this occasion.

Silly really as their whole point is as a warning system - but they seem to randomly take days off 😅

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Usual early morning decaying mess crossing the channel. Hopefully all the left over clag from this rain will spoil the chances for everyone else (I'm so bitter 🙂 )

Arome really does have a good handle on current precip (as usual because its showing nothing exciting for here) so the south east and EA really should be in the game later.

Edited by Alderc
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Storms also breaking out just to the east of North Norfolk now making landfall. These seem to be moving NNW and so will probably run up the Lincolnshire coast into East Ridings of Yorkshire.

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2 minutes ago, oliverek7 said:

Quite lively aren’t they? 

CFA6F72D-6EFA-494E-96B1-E64C92BCB151.jpeg

All dieing as they approach the South coast for the umpteenth time!

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