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Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards


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Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
    13 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

    That'll just be one run of the EURO4 (00z by the looks of it)

    Yup we shall see, im just looking at charts while drinking alone ;-;

    Edited by Mitch the motorbike storm
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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    AROME                                                        WRF-NMM 0.05°                                                 ARPEGE

    image.thumb.png.cd2ddb3049990424242b48c8c7f657db.png     image.thumb.png.333e4a3ecdd1d0c03cf7ab8425775a35.png            image.thumb.png.ddc806d2947fa73af5b9efe28589d700.png   

     

    ICON

     image.thumb.png.14b65ee2bc572439c51eb90e434ee3f7.png

     

    AROME has imports earlier than the rest with main consensus of imports being in the late afternoon.

    WRF-NMM has SB-based storms in the early morning before imports arrive in late afternoon.

    ARPEGE is SB-based storm galore with imports arriving around the same time as AROME.

    SB-based storms are looking good to develop but imports is another tricky issue.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    22 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

    That'll just be one run of the EURO4 (00z by the looks of it)

    the 06z shows even less rain

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    Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London
    1 hour ago, Mitch the motorbike storm said:

    Holy French imports tomorrow ❤️ I shall stand at the highest part of ramsgstr and let daddy zeus strike me with love!

     

    This just made me laugh ! 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    5 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

    AROME                                                        WRF-NMM 0.05°                                                 ARPEGE

    image.thumb.png.cd2ddb3049990424242b48c8c7f657db.png     image.thumb.png.333e4a3ecdd1d0c03cf7ab8425775a35.png            image.thumb.png.ddc806d2947fa73af5b9efe28589d700.png   

     

    ICON

     image.thumb.png.14b65ee2bc572439c51eb90e434ee3f7.png

     

    AROME has imports earlier than the rest with main consensus of imports being in the late afternoon.

    WRF-NMM has SB-based storms in the early morning before imports arrive in late afternoon.

    ARPEGE is SB-based storm galore with imports arriving around the same time as AROME.

    SB-based storms are looking good to develop but imports is another tricky issue.

     

    sb based storms were also looking not too bad for last 2 days for certain places which really didn't pan out , this is far from clear and I see you didn't mention the ICON but I understand why the only water you get from that is the tears of those in the SE looking at it

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
    4 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    sb based storms were also looking not too bad for last 2 days for certain places which really didn't pan out , this is far from clear and I see you didn't mention the ICON but I understand why the only water you get from that is the tears of those in the SE looking at it

    Oh yes the one I forgot.

    image.thumb.png.aabe0f1c94573825ece6533f7c491f9d.png

    ICON has imports in the late evening, which then trigger some more SB-based storms inland & those last into the morning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    image.thumb.png.0aec2560b38b837b8b4bc724323194d5.png

    Some pretty severe rainfall in East London with that spot of 100mm/hr being sat near Dagenham for a good hour or two.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    Convective Outlook / Forecast - Sunday 16th August 2020
    Valid 06:00 BST to 23:00 BST Sunday

    Risk Zone 1 - Southern Counties of England & Channel Islands
    Risk Zone 2 - Central and Southern Parts of England (Away from the South Coast, Eastern England, London, Lincs, Midlands, Central, Southern & Eastern Wales.

    Headline

    Upper level low with surface inflexion will drift NE towards to the UK to lie over the English Channel by Late Sunday. Associated Trough will move North during tomorrow morning with risk of Elevated convection and some Heavy Showers. As trough moves inland it will decay and insolation will take over. Surface based storms will develop during the afternoon in response to heating with a low risk of organisation and severe storms developing over Eastern England.

    Detail

    Large upper level low is very well placed on Airmass imagery , with a PVA max located in the Central Bay of Biscay. This PVA Max has engaged some higher 850mb air over parts of Biscay and has allowed for Elevated Thunderstorms to to erupt as the airmass was lifted north from Iberia. This trough development will move NE towards the English Channel tonight and then move close to the South coast during Sunday Morning. Rain / Showers/ Thunderstorms are likely to push towards the Channel Islands early on Sunday and then slowly move north, but likely to decay as they move north across the Channel during the diurnal minima. However saying that I have allowed for a risk of Showers / Thunderstorms from this trough to move into Southern Counties of England during Sunday.

    The trough is finally however likely to push north the rather complex airmass that has sat over Southern England for the past few days with only limited insolation but high PWAT Content. This higher theta-W air and high Moisture is likely to be pushed North during tomorrow to replaced by somewhat more buoyant air arriving from the South.

    During the afternoon, Sunshine will develop more widely over England and parts of Wales, and there will be an increase in low level thermal advection from 850mb to the surface as a tongue of warmer air from the continent moves into the SE and East Anglia. At the same time as this the upper level low will move north and this will lower 300-500mb temperatures across much of England & Wales,. The Net effect is to steepen Lapse rates significantly during the afternoon and forecast ascents are much more unstable compared with those of today with several hundred j/kg of CAPE perhaps up to 1,500 k/kg of CAPE over parts of England especially Eastern England.

    In addition to this improved thermodynamic environment we will also see an increase in Deep Layer Shear aloft as the upper trough approaches with an increase in winds especially at 300-500mbs over Eastern England and East Anglia. Therefore Any Thunderstorms which develop here have the potential for some modest organisation and have the potential to produce moderate gusts and perhaps hail. Given the PV aloft and the increased dry air at the 400-700mb level I see a much improved prospect of Lightning vs Sunday across these parts. High PWAT content likely to remain esp across parts of Eastern England and here again totals from rain / thunderstorms will be quite large. (though cells not expected to be as slow moving as recently)

    During the afternoon several convergence zones and trough axis are likely to develop. One close to the coasts of Eastern England, One over SW England, One over SE Wales and parts of Western England. These will be the focus for the development of Heavy Showers and Thunderstorms given the expected increase in Temperatures and Sunshine. Storms once developed will move NW on the SE steering flow.

    Storms have the potential for Organisation and perhaps to become marginally intense over Eastern England during the late afternoon & evening.

    Fig 1 - COnvective Outlook Sunday 16th August
    Fig 2 - Airmass Imagery 15th Evening Interpretation

    Issued Paul Blight
    20:38 15th August.

     

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    image.thumb.png.d9f8e4e30c88b99c2fdedc96c9edc5d2.png

    Paul Blight Risk Map

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    spacer.png

    edit - had trouble with that thanks

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
    21 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    sb based storms were also looking not too bad for last 2 days for certain places which really didn't pan out , this is far from clear

    Storm risk is higher tomorrow than today/yesterday. Hopefully you can avoid them this time as I know you don't want them. Although yes, precipitation charts should never be taken as gospel.

    Edited by Supacell
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    Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
    25 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    sb based storms were also looking not too bad for last 2 days for certain places which really didn't pan out , this is far from clear and I see you didn't mention the ICON but I understand why the only water you get from that is the tears of those in the SE looking at it

    Kent clipper, bet you a thunderstorm it will be a kent clipper

    Edited by Mitch the motorbike storm
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Another poor outlook for the south coast, convective sewage from France. Would be better if it didn’t bother at all, at least then we’d have some sun. 

    Seems like the changing air-masses of climate change are making it more difficult to generate sharp cold front boundaries on exiting plumes etc in general (I know that not the case for tomorrow) to create additional forcing in an eastwards motion. Same in winter really, convective actively down in all seasons here not just summer. 

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Here's two rainfall total charts, one from the UKV and one from the NetWx SR

    UKV:

    858553315_viewimage(1).thumb.png.b05d78fd82569ab8a75f12ea0da91e28.png

    NetWx SR:

    viewimage.thumb.png.85898f339b667137a66f4e5053668135.png

    Either way, I don't hold much hope for imports for Southern most areas. Similar to the other night..

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Another poor outlook for the south coast, convective sewage from France. Would be better if it didn’t bother at all, at least then we’d have some sun. 

    Seems like the changing air-masses of climate change are making it more difficult to generate sharp cold front boundaries on exiting plumes etc in general (I know that not the case for tomorrow) to create additional forcing in an eastwards motion. Same in winter really, convective actively down in all seasons here not just summer. 

    Yep East And West Looks good for tomorrow , as for you on the S coast to say your have been shafted this week is a bit of an understatement now for tomorrow it's SW/W and SE/E and not so bad in the middle

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    1 hour ago, Mitch the motorbike storm said:

    North east on the video

    I’m under the impression the steering flow is NW pulling the heaviest bits up along the NE coast

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    Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
    1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

    Here's two rainfall total charts, one from the UKV and one from the NetWx SR

    UKV:

    858553315_viewimage(1).thumb.png.b05d78fd82569ab8a75f12ea0da91e28.png

    NetWx SR:

    viewimage.thumb.png.85898f339b667137a66f4e5053668135.png

    Either way, I don't hold much hope for imports for Southern most areas. Similar to the other night..

    Give me some good news for tomorrow... please map

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    Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
    16 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

    image.thumb.png.0aec2560b38b837b8b4bc724323194d5.png

    Some pretty severe rainfall in East London with that spot of 100mm/hr being sat near Dagenham for a good hour or two.

    Yikes, that’s twice today I’ve been within about 10-15 miles of sustained, torrential rain. Seems like I’ve had a lucky escape! 
     

    (Wouldn’t have minded some thunder though!)

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    13 minutes ago, Supacell said:

    Storm risk is higher tomorrow than today/yesterday. Hopefully you can avoid them this time as I know you don't want them. Although yes, precipitation charts should never be taken as gospel.

    I'm not overly worried after reading PJB's outlook it seems west and east of me in the middle will probably be worse but i'll wait and see

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    Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (98m ASL)
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (98m ASL)

    Oh yes, come directly at us now with the boring heavy rain! Shame you couldn’t do that on Tuesday eh. Bastards 😂 

    Was running in the rain at lunch. Genuinely cold getting back to the house. Far cry from a ridiculously hot walk from the beach to the pub in Poole last weekend. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    Worst flooding in Chelmsford for decades & is hardly surprising looking at the radar accumulations.

    image.thumb.png.238e685b7456829cde29047ab39b3328.png

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